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It may be Labor Day weekend, but union power is waning It may be Labor Day weekend, but union power is waning
(17 days later)
It's Labor Day weekend. For most, the weekend marks the end of the summer. A last hurrah before football starts and the kids go back to school. You'll notice I haven't mentioned anything about "labor". That's cause while labor's political influence is still poignant, it's clearly not the powerhouse it once was.It's Labor Day weekend. For most, the weekend marks the end of the summer. A last hurrah before football starts and the kids go back to school. You'll notice I haven't mentioned anything about "labor". That's cause while labor's political influence is still poignant, it's clearly not the powerhouse it once was.
Why do I say that?Why do I say that?
1. Union household percentage is dropping1. Union household percentage is dropping
Politicians would fear labor if they made up a large percentage of the electorate. The 2012 exit poll put labor at 18% of the electorate. That's not small, especially considering that union households went for Obama by 18pt. Indeed, the gap between union and non-union households is about the same as the gender gap we always here about.Politicians would fear labor if they made up a large percentage of the electorate. The 2012 exit poll put labor at 18% of the electorate. That's not small, especially considering that union households went for Obama by 18pt. Indeed, the gap between union and non-union households is about the same as the gender gap we always here about.
The issue is that 18% is a far cry from the 34% unions made up in the 1976 election.The issue is that 18% is a far cry from the 34% unions made up in the 1976 election.
The percentage unions have made up in exit polls have dropped by 8pt since 2000 alone. 2000 marked a momentary spike that soon abated and the gradual decline continued. It's been over a point drop per election on the whole. Year alone predicts 88% of the variation in union membership from election to election – meaning that there's a powerful relationship between years gone by and the decline of labor as a percentage of the electorate.The percentage unions have made up in exit polls have dropped by 8pt since 2000 alone. 2000 marked a momentary spike that soon abated and the gradual decline continued. It's been over a point drop per election on the whole. Year alone predicts 88% of the variation in union membership from election to election – meaning that there's a powerful relationship between years gone by and the decline of labor as a percentage of the electorate.
As union households make up less of the electorate, there's less of a reason that politicians need to adhere to their arguments. Republicans have to make less of an outreach, and Democrats don't need to pander nearly as much. The populist appeal of Al Gore in 2000 may seem like a distant memory for future generations.As union households make up less of the electorate, there's less of a reason that politicians need to adhere to their arguments. Republicans have to make less of an outreach, and Democrats don't need to pander nearly as much. The populist appeal of Al Gore in 2000 may seem like a distant memory for future generations.
2. Union backing can be a bad thing ... in New York City2. Union backing can be a bad thing ... in New York City
No one expects that in a Republican state like Mississippi that being backed by a union is a good thing. Few people belong to unions in that south. One would think, however, that union backing would be a good thing where unions grow off the trees. In the largest city in the state with the most union members, labor should dominate.No one expects that in a Republican state like Mississippi that being backed by a union is a good thing. Few people belong to unions in that south. One would think, however, that union backing would be a good thing where unions grow off the trees. In the largest city in the state with the most union members, labor should dominate.
That simply isn't the case in New York City. The (Democratic) candidate backed by labor for New York City mayor has lost in every election since 1993. Part of that is no doubt because of crime and not labor negotiations. A good sized portion of it is, however, people who don't belong to unions are overwhelmingly fearful of too much union influence and overly generous city contracts.That simply isn't the case in New York City. The (Democratic) candidate backed by labor for New York City mayor has lost in every election since 1993. Part of that is no doubt because of crime and not labor negotiations. A good sized portion of it is, however, people who don't belong to unions are overwhelmingly fearful of too much union influence and overly generous city contracts.
Republican (or whatever Mike Bloomberg is calling himself these days) mayors won't bend, and people love it. While Democrat Bill Thompson won union households by 20pt in 2009, non-unions voted for Bloomberg by about 15pt.Republican (or whatever Mike Bloomberg is calling himself these days) mayors won't bend, and people love it. While Democrat Bill Thompson won union households by 20pt in 2009, non-unions voted for Bloomberg by about 15pt.
In 2013, all the major newspapers in New York City passed over Thompson for the Democratic nomination. They didn't do so because they thought he was unqualified. They did so because they didn't like that he was backed by the United Federation of Teachers (UFT). Did I mention the Democratic candidate backed by the UFT hasn't won a primary in a generation?In 2013, all the major newspapers in New York City passed over Thompson for the Democratic nomination. They didn't do so because they thought he was unqualified. They did so because they didn't like that he was backed by the United Federation of Teachers (UFT). Did I mention the Democratic candidate backed by the UFT hasn't won a primary in a generation?
If unions can't win in New York, where can they win?If unions can't win in New York, where can they win?
3. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker said "screw you" and won3. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker said "screw you" and won
The Wisconsin budget dispute of 2011 and subsequent recall of 2012 was perhaps the biggest blow to labor in a long while. Republican Governor Scott Walker led a Republican controlled legislature to make major changes to Wisconsin law. They limited collective bargaining of all non-emergency personnel to close a budget shortfall*.The Wisconsin budget dispute of 2011 and subsequent recall of 2012 was perhaps the biggest blow to labor in a long while. Republican Governor Scott Walker led a Republican controlled legislature to make major changes to Wisconsin law. They limited collective bargaining of all non-emergency personnel to close a budget shortfall*.
Democrats and unions went crazy. They protested and staged sit-ins. Walker and the Republicans didn't care. The Democrats and unions went to court and lost. They decided to force Walker into a recall election.Democrats and unions went crazy. They protested and staged sit-ins. Walker and the Republicans didn't care. The Democrats and unions went to court and lost. They decided to force Walker into a recall election.
Walker not only won the recall in 2012, but he won it rather easily. He expanded his 6pt win in the prior election to 7pt in the recall. This was despite a very turnout among union households. They made up 32% of the recall electorate versus 27% in the prior gubernatorial election. In other words, a pretty large chunk. Walker was able to overcome this larger turnout by expanding his margin among non-unions households from 13pt to 22pt.Walker not only won the recall in 2012, but he won it rather easily. He expanded his 6pt win in the prior election to 7pt in the recall. This was despite a very turnout among union households. They made up 32% of the recall electorate versus 27% in the prior gubernatorial election. In other words, a pretty large chunk. Walker was able to overcome this larger turnout by expanding his margin among non-unions households from 13pt to 22pt.
And make no mistake, the result was all about collective bargaining. 52% of voters approved of limiting collecting bargaining for government workers and of Walker's handling of it. Walker won pretty much all of these voters, while losing the rest.And make no mistake, the result was all about collective bargaining. 52% of voters approved of limiting collecting bargaining for government workers and of Walker's handling of it. Walker won pretty much all of these voters, while losing the rest.
Conclusion:Conclusion:
The nation will celebrate labor this weekend, yet labor has to be worried politically. They are still a force in American politics, though their power is steadily waning.The nation will celebrate labor this weekend, yet labor has to be worried politically. They are still a force in American politics, though their power is steadily waning.
*Note that this was a major difference between changes made in Wisconsin and the less successful efforts in Ohio. The lesson is people are less likely to stand for cuts to firefighters and policemen.*Note that this was a major difference between changes made in Wisconsin and the less successful efforts in Ohio. The lesson is people are less likely to stand for cuts to firefighters and policemen.
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