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| Western Australia set to punish Labor and the Greens | Western Australia set to punish Labor and the Greens |
| (12 days later) | |
| Three weeks ago during a campaign stop in Perth the opposition leader, Tony Abbott, declared that there had never “been a government in this country which has been as hostile to Western Australia as the current government". | Three weeks ago during a campaign stop in Perth the opposition leader, Tony Abbott, declared that there had never “been a government in this country which has been as hostile to Western Australia as the current government". |
| As the crowd roared with delight, the Coalition leader knew he was on a winning theme. Here in parochial WA, the federal government has always been mistrusted but, thanks to the mining and carbon tax, there is now even deeper resentment towards Canberra. | As the crowd roared with delight, the Coalition leader knew he was on a winning theme. Here in parochial WA, the federal government has always been mistrusted but, thanks to the mining and carbon tax, there is now even deeper resentment towards Canberra. |
| “There is less work now because of the mining tax,” a fly-in-fly-out (FIFO) miner tells me at Perth airport. | “There is less work now because of the mining tax,” a fly-in-fly-out (FIFO) miner tells me at Perth airport. |
| But the tax has only brought in millions of dollars, not the billions the government had hoped – it can’t be hurting the industry that badly? | But the tax has only brought in millions of dollars, not the billions the government had hoped – it can’t be hurting the industry that badly? |
| “People are unsure,” he shrugs. “I think they take WA for granted. They think we are the rich country and they seem to live off us a little bit.” | “People are unsure,” he shrugs. “I think they take WA for granted. They think we are the rich country and they seem to live off us a little bit.” |
| Western Australia punished the Labor party hard in the 2010 election – there are currently only three Labor held seats out of a total 15 seats in Western Australia in the lower house. Two of those, Perth and Fremantle, look relatively safe on Saturday, but the mining minister, Gary Gray, could feel the backlash against his department’s tax in the marginally held Labor seat of Brand. | Western Australia punished the Labor party hard in the 2010 election – there are currently only three Labor held seats out of a total 15 seats in Western Australia in the lower house. Two of those, Perth and Fremantle, look relatively safe on Saturday, but the mining minister, Gary Gray, could feel the backlash against his department’s tax in the marginally held Labor seat of Brand. |
| “Western Australia, which has always tended to be a conservative state, has become a very conservative state,” says David Black, a professor of history and politics at Curtin University in Perth. Black attributes the erosion in Labor support to the mining tax but says the state’s isolation has always kept it leaning to the right. | “Western Australia, which has always tended to be a conservative state, has become a very conservative state,” says David Black, a professor of history and politics at Curtin University in Perth. Black attributes the erosion in Labor support to the mining tax but says the state’s isolation has always kept it leaning to the right. |
| “I saw a graph recently that showed the two party preferred vote for the ALP nationally at each federal election for the last 30 years. And, except for the Keating and Hawke years, the WA Labor vote was always distinctly lower than the national average,” he says. | “I saw a graph recently that showed the two party preferred vote for the ALP nationally at each federal election for the last 30 years. And, except for the Keating and Hawke years, the WA Labor vote was always distinctly lower than the national average,” he says. |
| In recent years, the state has elected three Liberal senators, two Labor and one Green and, while Black thinks Labor will hold onto its seats in the upper house, he believes Greens senator Scott Ludlum could struggle to get over the line. | In recent years, the state has elected three Liberal senators, two Labor and one Green and, while Black thinks Labor will hold onto its seats in the upper house, he believes Greens senator Scott Ludlum could struggle to get over the line. |
| “You don’t need to win much of a primary vote to win that sixth seat,” explains Black. “It looked like it could go to the Nationals candidate David Wirrpanda or even one of the many smaller parties, like WikiLeaks. But, to be honest, the complications now over preferences and how they are going to work means that any attempt to predict what will happen is very hazardous.” | “You don’t need to win much of a primary vote to win that sixth seat,” explains Black. “It looked like it could go to the Nationals candidate David Wirrpanda or even one of the many smaller parties, like WikiLeaks. But, to be honest, the complications now over preferences and how they are going to work means that any attempt to predict what will happen is very hazardous.” |
| The Nationals’ David Wirrpanda is as close to a rock star candidate as you get in the West. A famous ex-football player with the West Coast Eagles, “Wirra”, as he is affectionately known, is one of the most recognised Indigenous faces in town and held in high regard for his charity work in remote communities. | The Nationals’ David Wirrpanda is as close to a rock star candidate as you get in the West. A famous ex-football player with the West Coast Eagles, “Wirra”, as he is affectionately known, is one of the most recognised Indigenous faces in town and held in high regard for his charity work in remote communities. |
| “I’ve always admired David but I was extremely surprised when he became a National,” Ludlum tells me. “They don’t have the best track record in Indigenous communities over the past 100 years.” | “I’ve always admired David but I was extremely surprised when he became a National,” Ludlum tells me. “They don’t have the best track record in Indigenous communities over the past 100 years.” |
| The other surprise candidate in WA who could take votes away from the Greens is Gerry Georgatos, a local journalist and academic running for the WikiLeaks party. Georgatos caused a stir and prompted several resignations from within the WikiLeaks party when it was revealed he had preferenced David Wirrpanda over the Greens. The move also outraged Ludlam supporters, who see the Greens senator as Julian Assange’s biggest supporter in parliament over recent years. | The other surprise candidate in WA who could take votes away from the Greens is Gerry Georgatos, a local journalist and academic running for the WikiLeaks party. Georgatos caused a stir and prompted several resignations from within the WikiLeaks party when it was revealed he had preferenced David Wirrpanda over the Greens. The move also outraged Ludlam supporters, who see the Greens senator as Julian Assange’s biggest supporter in parliament over recent years. |
| “To be honest, I’m over talking about it,” groans Ludlum. “But I doubt there are any WikiLeaks supporters left who haven’t heard about the party’s implosion.” | “To be honest, I’m over talking about it,” groans Ludlum. “But I doubt there are any WikiLeaks supporters left who haven’t heard about the party’s implosion.” |
| Georgatos himself feigns sympathy when asked if he has any regrets about making it more difficult for Ludlum to get re-elected. “That would be unfortunate, but to be honest we are more progressive than the Greens,” he tells me. | Georgatos himself feigns sympathy when asked if he has any regrets about making it more difficult for Ludlum to get re-elected. “That would be unfortunate, but to be honest we are more progressive than the Greens,” he tells me. |
| Thanks to securing preference deals with a range of small parties, Georgatos believes he is the one with a real chance of ending up in Canberra. So if WikiLeaks ended up holding the balance of power in the Senate, how would the party vote on efforts to repeal the carbon tax or the mining tax? | Thanks to securing preference deals with a range of small parties, Georgatos believes he is the one with a real chance of ending up in Canberra. So if WikiLeaks ended up holding the balance of power in the Senate, how would the party vote on efforts to repeal the carbon tax or the mining tax? |
| “Look, we would have the public record examined and have each piece of legislation stand alone on its merits,” Georgatos says, unwilling to give a definitive position. | “Look, we would have the public record examined and have each piece of legislation stand alone on its merits,” Georgatos says, unwilling to give a definitive position. |
| Ludlam acknowledges the increasingly conservative political landscape in WA and admits his re-election is in doubt. “Perth has experienced a massive influx of people from other states and from overseas, pursuing work in the mining industry,” says Ludlam. “We’ve noticed a significant change in WA’s demographics and voting patterns since last election.” | Ludlam acknowledges the increasingly conservative political landscape in WA and admits his re-election is in doubt. “Perth has experienced a massive influx of people from other states and from overseas, pursuing work in the mining industry,” says Ludlam. “We’ve noticed a significant change in WA’s demographics and voting patterns since last election.” |
| So if Ludlam loses his seat on Saturday, will it be because of unhappiness with the Greens or more to do with the state’s changing demographics? | So if Ludlam loses his seat on Saturday, will it be because of unhappiness with the Greens or more to do with the state’s changing demographics? |
| “Demographics are part of it,” he sighs. “But the least useful thing you can do in this position is to blame the voters. If you do, you’re in the wrong game. If we are not successful on Saturday, I will take full responsibility for it.” | “Demographics are part of it,” he sighs. “But the least useful thing you can do in this position is to blame the voters. If you do, you’re in the wrong game. If we are not successful on Saturday, I will take full responsibility for it.” |
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