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Where it all went wrong for Kevin Rudd and the Australian Labor party Where it all went wrong for Kevin Rudd and the Australian Labor party
(12 days later)
Kevin Rudd's victory in 2007 seemed, not so long ago, sufficiently definitive to re-establish the Australian Labor party, after a prolonged exile in the political wilderness, as the country's default party of government. The energetic new prime minster signed the Kyoto protocol, delivered a long-awaited apology to the Stolen Generations (Indigenous people forcibly separated from their parents) and summoned the nation's adoring intelligentsia to a razzle-dazzle "2020 summit".Kevin Rudd's victory in 2007 seemed, not so long ago, sufficiently definitive to re-establish the Australian Labor party, after a prolonged exile in the political wilderness, as the country's default party of government. The energetic new prime minster signed the Kyoto protocol, delivered a long-awaited apology to the Stolen Generations (Indigenous people forcibly separated from their parents) and summoned the nation's adoring intelligentsia to a razzle-dazzle "2020 summit".
The left's jubilation only grew when, in late 2009, the rightwing Liberal party dumped the urbane Malcolm Turnbull for Tony Abbott, a socially conservative culture warrior widely seen as sufficiently reactionary as to keep the Liberals out of power for a generation. But how long ago that all seems! If the polls are correct, tomorrow's election will install Abbott as prime minister, leave Labor a shattered rump and end the careers of its most prominent figures – including Rudd himself.The left's jubilation only grew when, in late 2009, the rightwing Liberal party dumped the urbane Malcolm Turnbull for Tony Abbott, a socially conservative culture warrior widely seen as sufficiently reactionary as to keep the Liberals out of power for a generation. But how long ago that all seems! If the polls are correct, tomorrow's election will install Abbott as prime minister, leave Labor a shattered rump and end the careers of its most prominent figures – including Rudd himself.
How did we get from there to here? The global financial crisis waylaid even the most determined reformists. But because Rudd identified climate as "the greatest moral, economic and social challenge of our time", his retreat from environmental action dealt his personal popularity its first real blow. Yes, he gave good symbol but his frenetic enthusiasms suddenly felt rather underwhelming: all sizzle and no sausage, as it were.How did we get from there to here? The global financial crisis waylaid even the most determined reformists. But because Rudd identified climate as "the greatest moral, economic and social challenge of our time", his retreat from environmental action dealt his personal popularity its first real blow. Yes, he gave good symbol but his frenetic enthusiasms suddenly felt rather underwhelming: all sizzle and no sausage, as it were.
Rudd had initially floated serenely above his party's poisonous internal culture in a bubble of personal popularity. But when Australia's mining industry mobilised against a resource tax, Labor's power-brokers – who, as strategists, could (per David Mamet) reliably fuck up a baked potato – decided to reboot the government by dumping Rudd for his talented deputy, Julia Gillard.Rudd had initially floated serenely above his party's poisonous internal culture in a bubble of personal popularity. But when Australia's mining industry mobilised against a resource tax, Labor's power-brokers – who, as strategists, could (per David Mamet) reliably fuck up a baked potato – decided to reboot the government by dumping Rudd for his talented deputy, Julia Gillard.
Gillard inherited an impossible task: defending a government in which she'd been a key figure as she explained how its erstwhile leader was a dysfunctional narcissist. After an initial spike, Labor's polling headed south and, in the 2010 election, it barely squeaked home. As the nation's first female prime minister, Gillard faced an extraordinary torrent of sexism, especially when the Murdoch press turned against her and the new minority government she led. Climate change, an issue that helped propel Labor to power, became a particular albatross around Gillard's neck, with her carbon tax a rallying point for a new Tea party-style conservatism. Most of all, Gillard could not escape Rudd, whose popularity climbed steadily even as hers flatlined. Between 2010 and 2013, Labor events resembled Borgia family dinners, with Team Gillard and Team Rudd fighting out a vicious war in person and by proxy.Gillard inherited an impossible task: defending a government in which she'd been a key figure as she explained how its erstwhile leader was a dysfunctional narcissist. After an initial spike, Labor's polling headed south and, in the 2010 election, it barely squeaked home. As the nation's first female prime minister, Gillard faced an extraordinary torrent of sexism, especially when the Murdoch press turned against her and the new minority government she led. Climate change, an issue that helped propel Labor to power, became a particular albatross around Gillard's neck, with her carbon tax a rallying point for a new Tea party-style conservatism. Most of all, Gillard could not escape Rudd, whose popularity climbed steadily even as hers flatlined. Between 2010 and 2013, Labor events resembled Borgia family dinners, with Team Gillard and Team Rudd fighting out a vicious war in person and by proxy.
In June 2013, Rudd finally vanquished his rival, convincing colleagues that only he offered hope in the looming election. His extraordinary resurrection brought an immediate poll bounce, but over the next weeks, it, too, slowly dribbled away, leaving Labor once more adrift in the popularity doldrums.In June 2013, Rudd finally vanquished his rival, convincing colleagues that only he offered hope in the looming election. His extraordinary resurrection brought an immediate poll bounce, but over the next weeks, it, too, slowly dribbled away, leaving Labor once more adrift in the popularity doldrums.
The Rudd-Gillard shenanigans provided an obvious gift to Abbott. But it's also important to understand the political logic underpinning the Liberal revival. When Gillard toppled Rudd, she ostentatiously abandoned all the policies to which conservatives had been most hostile; when Rudd unseated Gillard, he did exactly the same – an Alice in Wonderland scenario of two rival PMs, each more rightwing than the other.The Rudd-Gillard shenanigans provided an obvious gift to Abbott. But it's also important to understand the political logic underpinning the Liberal revival. When Gillard toppled Rudd, she ostentatiously abandoned all the policies to which conservatives had been most hostile; when Rudd unseated Gillard, he did exactly the same – an Alice in Wonderland scenario of two rival PMs, each more rightwing than the other.
Nowhere has this been more apparent than on asylum-seeker policy. To assuage a burgeoning anti-refugee campaign, Gillard embraced ever more punitive measures, eventually excising the entirety of the Australian mainland from its migration zone (yes, apparently that's possible). The reborn Rudd went further, condemning all boat arrivals to be henceforth interned in a camp in nearby Papua New Guinea.Nowhere has this been more apparent than on asylum-seeker policy. To assuage a burgeoning anti-refugee campaign, Gillard embraced ever more punitive measures, eventually excising the entirety of the Australian mainland from its migration zone (yes, apparently that's possible). The reborn Rudd went further, condemning all boat arrivals to be henceforth interned in a camp in nearby Papua New Guinea.
Predictably, rather than reclaiming ground from the right, Labor's evolution only normalised Liberal rhetoric, even as the entire debate became increasingly unhinged. Abbott, for his part, now promises indefinite work-for-the-dole obligations for everyone with the temerity to successfully apply for refugee status.Predictably, rather than reclaiming ground from the right, Labor's evolution only normalised Liberal rhetoric, even as the entire debate became increasingly unhinged. Abbott, for his part, now promises indefinite work-for-the-dole obligations for everyone with the temerity to successfully apply for refugee status.
A similar process has been at work across the policy spectrum. Notoriously, Abbott once declared climate change science "crap". But rather than campaigning for the environment (as he did in 2007), Rudd went to the election boasting about scrapping Gillard's tax on carbon.A similar process has been at work across the policy spectrum. Notoriously, Abbott once declared climate change science "crap". But rather than campaigning for the environment (as he did in 2007), Rudd went to the election boasting about scrapping Gillard's tax on carbon.
The effective Liberal scare campaign on debt and deficits built on Labor rhetoric about the necessity of budget surpluses, while Abbott's opposition to same-sex marriage cost him little, since Gillard and (until very recently) Rudd echoed his social conservatism.The effective Liberal scare campaign on debt and deficits built on Labor rhetoric about the necessity of budget surpluses, while Abbott's opposition to same-sex marriage cost him little, since Gillard and (until very recently) Rudd echoed his social conservatism.
Even now, surveys show little enthusiasm for Abbott, whose disapproval rating continues to exceed his personal support. Yet, after six years of Labor government, Rudd's promise of reinvention (official slogan: A New Way) seems akin to rephrasing a burp. With Labor unable to provide its base with any compelling reason to vote, Australia goes to the polls today in a mood of generalised cynicism – and Abbott's likely to slouch towards Canberra as a result. Even now, surveys show little enthusiasm for Abbott, whose disapproval rating continues to exceed his personal support. Yet, after six years of Labor government, Rudd's promise of reinvention (official slogan: A New Way) seems akin to rephrasing a burp. With Labor unable to provide its base with any compelling reason to vote, Australia goes to the polls today in a mood of generalised cynicism – and Abbott's likely to slouch towards Canberra as a result.
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