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Bashar al-Assad and his regime have prospered from the sarin gas attack Bashar al-Assad and his regime have prospered from the sarin gas attack
(35 minutes later)
The distracting international furore over chemical weapons use in Syria, and this week's shamefacedly cautious UN report, appear to mark the moment it finally became clear that Bashar al-Assad will survive the current crisis, that the US and western powers lack the political authority to control or direct events, and that the war, however long it lasts, is not one the rebels can win. The attack in Ghouta on 21 August was a turning point – but a turning point, perversely, that favoured the regime, not the opposition.The distracting international furore over chemical weapons use in Syria, and this week's shamefacedly cautious UN report, appear to mark the moment it finally became clear that Bashar al-Assad will survive the current crisis, that the US and western powers lack the political authority to control or direct events, and that the war, however long it lasts, is not one the rebels can win. The attack in Ghouta on 21 August was a turning point – but a turning point, perversely, that favoured the regime, not the opposition.
Although the US and Britain have portrayed Syria's untested agreement to give up its chemical weapons stockpile as a great advance, the affair has proved to be largely a sideshow in a conflict in which conventional weapons have killed and maimed vastly more people, and continue to do so. In one sense, Assad has gained the tacit go-ahead to prosecute the war, so long as he eschews nerve gas. In the wake of this dubious deal, the high tide of pressure for direct western action peaked, then subsided. The "killer moment" passed.Although the US and Britain have portrayed Syria's untested agreement to give up its chemical weapons stockpile as a great advance, the affair has proved to be largely a sideshow in a conflict in which conventional weapons have killed and maimed vastly more people, and continue to do so. In one sense, Assad has gained the tacit go-ahead to prosecute the war, so long as he eschews nerve gas. In the wake of this dubious deal, the high tide of pressure for direct western action peaked, then subsided. The "killer moment" passed.
The Syrian leader now knows with a degree of certainty that was lacking before Ghouta that he may do almost anything he wants, while ostensibly observing the new US-Russian framework, free from fear of American military retribution. Since Ghouta was not enough for Obama to win the backing of the American public or congress for the use of force, more routine slaughter of the kind seen in the past two and a half years can hardly be expected to change attitudes. The Syrian leader now knows with a degree of certainty that was lacking before Ghouta that he may do almost anything he wants, while ostensibly observing the new US-Russian framework, free from fear of US military retribution. Since Ghouta was not enough for Obama to win the backing of the American public or congress for the use of force, more routine slaughter of the kind seen in the past two and a half years can hardly be expected to change attitudes.
Assad also knows that the leverage and influence, and therefore the protection afforded him by his main ally, Russia, has been greatly enhanced by the chemical weapons deal. Obama's confusion over his illusory "red lines", exposing his political weakness, gave Moscow an opening it seized with both hands. Russia is now setting the diplomatic pace and can dictate, for example, whether and when a Geneva II peace conference takes place, and what it discusses.Assad also knows that the leverage and influence, and therefore the protection afforded him by his main ally, Russia, has been greatly enhanced by the chemical weapons deal. Obama's confusion over his illusory "red lines", exposing his political weakness, gave Moscow an opening it seized with both hands. Russia is now setting the diplomatic pace and can dictate, for example, whether and when a Geneva II peace conference takes place, and what it discusses.
At the same time, Vladimir Putin's spokesmen give nothing away. They still dispute that the regime was responsible for the Ghouta atrocity. They are still blocking any draft UN security council resolution that would automatically allow the use of force, should Assad not fully comply. They continue to delegitimise the rebels, tarring them all with the jihadist brush. And Russia continues to arm the regime.At the same time, Vladimir Putin's spokesmen give nothing away. They still dispute that the regime was responsible for the Ghouta atrocity. They are still blocking any draft UN security council resolution that would automatically allow the use of force, should Assad not fully comply. They continue to delegitimise the rebels, tarring them all with the jihadist brush. And Russia continues to arm the regime.
It also seems clear that those responsible for the Ghouta attack, from Assad downwards, are unlikely to face justice soon, or at all. The UN report declined to blame the regime, let alone to name those behind the atrocity. The international criminal court has no purchase, unless UN member states act to arrest suspects. William Hague, Britain's foreign secretary, says he will "consult our partners" about finding those responsible. Maybe Hague knows what that means.It also seems clear that those responsible for the Ghouta attack, from Assad downwards, are unlikely to face justice soon, or at all. The UN report declined to blame the regime, let alone to name those behind the atrocity. The international criminal court has no purchase, unless UN member states act to arrest suspects. William Hague, Britain's foreign secretary, says he will "consult our partners" about finding those responsible. Maybe Hague knows what that means.
Obliged (with some relief) to return to the diplomatic path, Obama does so with a much weakened hand. "The US will be saddled with the burden of getting a fractious Syrian opposition to coalesce around a common negotiating position. In a way, Washington has succeeded in unifying the opposition; unfortunately, in fury over the US refusal to follow through on threats to bomb its enemy. At best, opposition leaders see the chemical weapons deal as a sideshow … At worst, they believe it is a ruse that strengthens Assad's prospects," said Edward Joseph in Foreign Affairs.Obliged (with some relief) to return to the diplomatic path, Obama does so with a much weakened hand. "The US will be saddled with the burden of getting a fractious Syrian opposition to coalesce around a common negotiating position. In a way, Washington has succeeded in unifying the opposition; unfortunately, in fury over the US refusal to follow through on threats to bomb its enemy. At best, opposition leaders see the chemical weapons deal as a sideshow … At worst, they believe it is a ruse that strengthens Assad's prospects," said Edward Joseph in Foreign Affairs.
"Meanwhile, the Russians must only manage one client – an Assad who sees that he is winning and wants no part in any compromise of the regime's monopoly on state power … It is likely that, from here on out, Russia will use negotiations to cover for both the regime's intransigence and possible cheating on the chemical weapons scheme.""Meanwhile, the Russians must only manage one client – an Assad who sees that he is winning and wants no part in any compromise of the regime's monopoly on state power … It is likely that, from here on out, Russia will use negotiations to cover for both the regime's intransigence and possible cheating on the chemical weapons scheme."
Assad has not yet won the war. But the events of the past month, when Washington's bluff was called, Obama was humiliated (and Britain's parliament bailed out) imply that he cannot lose. Logic, or crude pragmatism, therefore suggests the western powers should stop aiding the rebels, forget their dreams of regime change, and help to force this appalling conflict to an unavoidably unsatisfactory, negotiated close.Assad has not yet won the war. But the events of the past month, when Washington's bluff was called, Obama was humiliated (and Britain's parliament bailed out) imply that he cannot lose. Logic, or crude pragmatism, therefore suggests the western powers should stop aiding the rebels, forget their dreams of regime change, and help to force this appalling conflict to an unavoidably unsatisfactory, negotiated close.
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