President Obama's flailing approval ratings hurt his party

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/17/obama-approval-rating-midterm-elections

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President Obama's standing with the American people is flagging. The Real Clear Politics average at the time of this writing has his net approval rating at -7.3pt. But does Obama's approval rating matter now given that he never has to face re-election? And if it does matter, can he recover?

The answers are that it does matter – Obama's approval rating can greatly affect the 2014 midterm elections and, to a lesser extent, the 2016 presidential election – and the historical odds of it recovering much seem to be slim.

In midterms, electorates often take out their frustration with the president on the their party's congressional members. A poor presidential approval rating will only add to that frustration. A president likely needs an approval rating in the mid 60s, like Bill Clinton in 1998 and George W Bush in 2002, to avoid the curse of "midterm loss".

In every non-wartime midterm election since 1938, simply knowing how many seats the president's party controlled and the president's approval rating goes a long way in determining how the midterm is going to shake out. Not counting 1974, because Richard Nixon resigned and Gerald Ford took his place, more than 75% of the variation between the seats won in the House by the president's party in the midterm is explained by the two aforementioned variables.

If the president's approval rating were to hold, this very simple regression finds the Democrats would lose 30 seats in the House. Now, no one I've spoken to thinks that the president's party is going to lose that many seats. The margin of error on this regression is large enough that no seat loss is possible with the president's net approval rating of -7.5pt. Still, the chances of a major House loss for the president's party are perhaps better than one might think, if the president's position holds.

The effect of the president's poor standing extends into the Senate elections. It's much more difficult to model Senate elections over the long-term because not every senator is up for re-election in a given year. That said, the Senate is likely to be decided in states where President Obama lost in 2012. Democratic Senate candidates are likely going to try very hard to localize their races.

One race that they won't be able to localize is the 2016 presidential election. To be sure, the incumbent president's approval rating matters less when he is not running for re-election. Clinton's high approval rating didn't save Al Gore, while Hubert Humphrey nearly won even as Lyndon Johnson slumped. The factor that will matter most will be economic growth during 2016.

However, the president's approval plays a role in the election to find his successor. Once we control for the economy, every 5pt increase in a president's net approval rating increases his party's candidate's margin by 1pt in the presidential election per Drew Linzer. An election his party might have won by 1pt had the incumbent president had a +5pt net approval rating becomes an election the incumbent party loses by 1pt with a -5pt rating.

Of course, we're still a long way from the midterm election and an even longer way from the presidential election in 2016. But the chances that the president can pick up ground before the midterm and even the next presidential election are not as good as one might think.<br />You may remember that Obama's approval was in a similar position after the debt ceiling crisis in 2011, and he recovered. The difference is that we were heading into a president's re-election year, when presidents regularly see their approval rating rise and fall. Going into a midterm or an election when the president does not run for re-election is a different story.

The president's approval rating has never increased by more than 7pt from this point after re-election until the midterm election.

The greatest increase in a second term was 7pt for Bill Clinton in from this point until the 1998 midterm. The only other increase at all was 4pt for Ronald Reagan in 1986. Both of these years featured much stronger economies than we have now. All other presidents saw a decline in their approval rating. The average previously re-elected president loses about 10pt on their net approval from now until the midterm.

When we include presidents who were in their first term, 14 out of 16 saw a decline in their approval rating from now until the midterm. It is, in other words, unlikely that the president sees an increase in his approval. Add on the fact that most polls now are of adults and the likely electorate is probably going to lean more Republican, and it doesn't look good for the Democrats.

2016 will almost certainly feature better turnout among the Democratic base of minority and youth voters than 2014. The issue is that of the six presidents who had won re-election and weren't running in the next election, none have seen more than a 2pt improvement in their net approval rating from this point until the next presidential election. Clinton saw a 1pt increase and Eisenhower a 2pt increase. Neither of those increases would put Obama in positive net approval territory.

Now all that said, it's certainly possible that President Obama's approval rating will rebound. There have been great deviations in a president's approval from this point in his presidency forward. It's just that almost all movement has been in the negative direction. Maybe this time will be different.

If historical patterns hold, however, President Obama's approval ratings will matter in the upcoming midterm and next presidential election, and they will likely be an albatross around the neck of the Democratic party.

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