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Germans Turn Out in Slightly Higher Numbers at Polls Merkel Set to Gain Third Term, Exit Polls Show
(about 2 hours later)
BERLIN — Voters in Germany headed to the polls on Sunday for Parliamentary elections that will determine whether Chancellor Angela Merkel will lead the country, the largest economy in Europe, for a third term. BERLIN — Chancellor Angela Merkel was poised on Sunday to win a third term in office, after her conservatives made significant gains to emerge as the clear winners of Germany’s election, exit polls indicated. But a collapse of support for her coalition partners, the pro-business Free Democrats, meant that Ms. Merkel would have to build a new government, pointing to a long process of horse-trading in the weeks ahead.
Voter turnout more than half-way into the relatively mild fall day proved to be slightly higher compared with turnout at the same time four years ago, indicating that despite a campaign that many Germans considered to be the most boring in recent memory, they were determined to cast a ballot. The most likely coalition partner for a new government would be the center-left Social Democrats, in what is known as a “grand coalition” of the country’s two largest parties. Such a constellation may require lengthy negotiations, however, which would prolong a period of political suspension that Germany’s European Union partners, eager for more forceful action to combat the bloc’s economic crisis, had hoped would end with the vote.
While Ms. Merkel has maintained a comfortable lead in opinion polls throughout her campaign, with surveys showing that her Christian Democrats could secure 39 percent of the vote, the bigger question is whether she will be able to continue with the center-right coalition she has led since 2009, or be forced to form a government with her main rivals. Nonetheless, the returns amounted to a clear validation of Ms. Merkel’s leadeship by German voters, who left her party closer to an absolute majority than almost anyone had expected. The chancellor was clearly buoyant as she emerged onstage at her party’s headquarters after the projections were announced, beaming a wide smile at members, who cheered wildly, “Angie! Angie!” as she thanked voters and her husband, Joachim Sauer, for their support.
Her partners in the current coalition, the Free Democrats, have been struggling. After winning nearly 15 percent of the vote four years ago, they might not make the 5 percent threshold needed to win seats in the lower house, the Bundestag, polls have indicated. Should they fail, and if the Christian Democrats do not obtain an outright majority, Ms. Merkel would have to find another partner, which many expect would be the center-left Social Democrats. “It was a super result,” Ms. Merkel said. “It is too early to say what we will do; we will discuss it tomorrow when we know the final result, but we can already celebrate tonight, because we were great.”
The recent surge of the Alternative for Germany, an upstart party with a socially conservative, anti-euro platform, has created additional uncertainty, since it could siphon away support from the chancellor’s conservatives and the Free Democrats, further weakening their chances of continuing the current government. Projections based on exit polls tallied by the ARD public network showed Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democrats winning more than 42 percent of the vote, followed by the Social Democrats, with nearly 26 percent of the vote.
Roughly one-third of all voters described themselves as undecided just days before the vote, one of the tightest elections since reunification, in 1990. Polling stations opened Sunday at 8 a.m., and the first exit polls are to be released immediately after they close, at 6 p.m. The country has nearly 62 million registered voters. The ZDF public network said its projections showed the chancellor’s party, together with its Bavaria-only partners, the Christian Social Union, within one seat of winning an absolute majority in the lower house, which would allow Ms. Merkel to govern without needing a partner. That outcome will depend on how the final numbers fall for the smaller parties.
Six hours into voting, organizers said that 41.4 percent of those eligible to cast ballots had already done so. That number was slightly higher than the turnout by mid-day four years ago, when the overall turnout ultimately reached nearly 71 percent, according to figures released by the Federal Electoral Superintendent. The chancellor’s main challenger, Peer Steinbrück, 66, told supporters that his party had failed to achieve the result it had expected, even as he congratulated Ms. Merkel on her win.
Nils Schwenzfeier, 25, an industrial engineering student in Berlin, cast his ballot for the Social Democrats because, he said, he believed they better emphasized the importance of Germany’s role in Europe. “The ball is in Ms. Merkel’s court; she has to get herself a majority,” Mr. Steinbrück said.
“I think we need to change some things around here, because what we’re always doing is taking a step back and say, ‘Let’s wait,' ” Mr. Schwenzfeier said. “What I really like about this party is they emphasize we are in the middle of Europe and we have to make it a stonger Europe. I think most of the challenges we can only tackle in the European context.” The biggest surprise of the evening was the upstart, anti-euro Alternative for Deutschland party, which exit polls showed just shy of the 5 percent needed to enter into the lower house of Parliament. A classic protest party, it appeared to have drawn enough support from both the chancellor’s conservatives and the Free Democrats, possibly costing the latter their place in Parliament.
The race has been watched closely abroad, given Germany’s leadership role in the Continent’s efforts to shake its crippling debt crisis, chronic unemployment and sluggish growth. The next government in Berlin will also be a major participant in the talks aimed at finalizing an ambitious trans-Atlantic trade agreement between the European Union and the United States. Projections from the exit polls showed the Free Democrats falling just short of the 5 percent hurdle, meaning they would be ousted from the lower house, a crushing loss after having won nearly 15 percent four years ago.
Ms. Merkel and her husband, Joachim Sauer, voted in the early afternoon at a hall that forms part of Humboldt University. She made no comment to the crowd of reporters, but cast her ballot and returned to the apartment the couple have long shared in central Berlin. Nearly 62 million eligible voters were called upon to determine the makeup of the next German Parliament. The race was watched closely abroad. Given Germany’s leadership role in Europe, the outcome will influence the Continent’s ability to shake its crippling debt crisis, chronic unemployment and sluggish growth. The next government in Berlin will also play a key role in finalizing the ambitious transatlantic trade agreement between the European Union and the United States.
Jörn Schneider, 41, who runs a tourism business, voted minutes before her arrival and made plain that he did not choose her. “The visions are missing for me,” he said of Ms. Merkel’s center-right party. But he was curious enough to stick around for a glimpse of the chancellor. “Might as well see her live,” he said. On Saturday, Ms. Merkel wound up her campaign of countless interviews and almost 60 rallies nationwide since mid-August in her home district around Stralsund, a pretty, medieval Hanseatic port on the Baltic Sea.
On Saturday, Ms. Merkel wound up her campaign in her home district around Stralsund, a picturesque medieval port on the Baltic Sea. Upbeat, the 59-year-old chancellor almost forgot that she was the local candidate as she urged voters to cast their ballots for her and, in the second vote, which is for parties, for her Christian Democrats. Upbeat as she delivered her usual stump speech, the 59-year-old chancellor almost forgot that she was the local candidate as she urged voters to cast their ballots for her and, in the second vote, which is for parties, for her Christian Democrats.
“By putting your cross there, you are doing something that will enable me to continue as your chancellor, which I really want to do,” she told a seafront crowd of hundreds. “Tomorrow is your day.” “By putting your cross there, you are doing something which will enable me to continue as your chancellor, which I really want to do,” she told a seafront crowd of hundreds.
“Germany has had four good years” Ms. Merkel added, referring to the robust economy and low unemployment, currently at 6.8 percent. “When we look around in Europe, we know that is anything but automatic.” “Tomorrow is your day,” she said, adding her voice to the many people urging all eligible Germans to cast ballots, reflecting the emphasis on duty, as well as rights, in this post-Nazi, post-Communist democracy.
Her main challenger, Peer Steinbrück, 66, of the Social Democrats, who served as finance minister in her government from 2005 to 2009, has sought to cast her carefully weighed decision-making as plodding and her coalition with the Free Democrats as crippled by infighting. Roughly one-third of all voters described themselves as undecided just days before the election, adding to the uncertainty in what has proved to be one of the tightest elections since Germany reunited, in 1990.
“In 28 hours you can get rid of them; you can get rid of the most backward-looking, incapable, loudmouthed German government since reunification,” Mr. Steinbrück told a crowd of several thousand on Saturday in Frankfurt, the country’s financial capital and home to the European Central Bank. He has pledged to close the widening gap between Germany’s rich and poor by raising taxes on top earners and introducing a minimum wage. “Germany has had four good years” Ms. Merkel said on Saturday, looking back on her second term, dominated by a robust economy and low unemployment, currently at 6.8 percent. “When we look around in Europe, we know that is anything but automatic.”
Mr. Steinbrück cast his vote in Bonn, his home constituency, earlier in the day, then sent via Twitter a picture of himself standing at the ballot box, under the slogan “Do as I Do.” Ms. Merkel had vowed to continue the reflective leadership style that has infuriated and befuddled the country’s partners abroad, but that has been embraced by Germans at home. Many fondly cheered the chancellor as “Mutti,” or “Mommy,” throughout her campaign.
The Social Democrats would prefer to form a partnership with the Greens, who also appear poised to make it into Parliament. But with the Social Democrats polling about 27 percent and the Greens hovering around 10 percent, it would not be enough to challenge a center-right coalition. That would require bringing on a more hard-line party, the Left, a prospect that the Social Democrats and the Greens have ruled out. Mr. Steinbrück, however, who served as finance minister in her government from 2005 to 2009, had sought to cast her carefully weighed decision-making as plodding and her government with the Free Democrats as crippled by in-fighting.
Should Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democrats seek a coalition with the Social Democrats, the negotiations are likely to be difficult and drawn out. In 2005, when they tried to form a similar coalition, the horse-trading between the parties took two months. “In 28 hours you can get rid of them; you can get rid of the most backward-looking, incapable, loud-mouthed German government since reunification,” Mr. Steinbrück told a crowd of several thousand on Saturday in Frankfurt, the country’s financial capital and home to the European Central Bank. He had campaigned on closing the widening gap between Germany’s rich and poor by raising taxes on top earners and introducing a minimum wage.
The Social Democrats’ preferred partners had been the Greens, but exit polls showed them also suffering losses to reach only about 8 percent support. That would mean that only by including the far-left Left party, formed in 2005 from the former East German Communist Party and western leftists who broke with the Social Democrats, would a left-leaning coalition be possible. Both center-left parties have repeatedly rejected a coalition with the Left, charging that the party remains fractured by in-fighting and differences over policy.
Should the chancellor seek a coalition with the Social Democrats, the negotiations are sure to be difficult and drawn out.

Alison Smale contributed reporting from Stralsund, Germany.

Alison Smale contributed reporting from Stralsund, Germany.