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How Labour can win How Labour can win
(35 minutes later)
The leader of the opposition has no power and little patronage, so the grumblers are hard to silence. He cannot do anything to the real world. He can try to change his party as a testament to his reforming credentials, but there is nobody more conservative than the activists in the party you love (or, like many bruised leaders, love to hate).The leader of the opposition has no power and little patronage, so the grumblers are hard to silence. He cannot do anything to the real world. He can try to change his party as a testament to his reforming credentials, but there is nobody more conservative than the activists in the party you love (or, like many bruised leaders, love to hate).
As Ed Miliband prepares to address the party faithful, buffeted by the noises off from Damian McBride, he can add to all these traditional problems two others. First, the success of the early Tory character assassination of him as "Red Ed", which left him, a decent radical with brave instincts, with dismal personal poll ratings. This no doubt hurts, but in a parliamentary system, it is not a fatal obstacle to success. In 1979, the losing "Sunny" Jim Callaghan was far more popular than the winning Margaret Thatcher.As Ed Miliband prepares to address the party faithful, buffeted by the noises off from Damian McBride, he can add to all these traditional problems two others. First, the success of the early Tory character assassination of him as "Red Ed", which left him, a decent radical with brave instincts, with dismal personal poll ratings. This no doubt hurts, but in a parliamentary system, it is not a fatal obstacle to success. In 1979, the losing "Sunny" Jim Callaghan was far more popular than the winning Margaret Thatcher.
Second, Miliband has reached that period of the parliament when he will be running up the down escalator. Chancellors have fewer levers now that the Bank of England sets interest rates, but most manage to deliver relatively cheery news for polling day. Whatever the austerity rhetoric, economic policy has eased. A pragmatic Bank governor, Mark Carney, has signalled that interest rates will stay low until unemployment has fallen. The government's fiscal retrenchment is slowing down. The natural bounce in the economy can come through. Help to housebuyers is sparking higher house prices, increasing both confidence and eventually consumer spending. Given high debt and limping banks, the recovery is unlikely to be stellar – but the voters will feel it, and will not want to put it at risk.Second, Miliband has reached that period of the parliament when he will be running up the down escalator. Chancellors have fewer levers now that the Bank of England sets interest rates, but most manage to deliver relatively cheery news for polling day. Whatever the austerity rhetoric, economic policy has eased. A pragmatic Bank governor, Mark Carney, has signalled that interest rates will stay low until unemployment has fallen. The government's fiscal retrenchment is slowing down. The natural bounce in the economy can come through. Help to housebuyers is sparking higher house prices, increasing both confidence and eventually consumer spending. Given high debt and limping banks, the recovery is unlikely to be stellar – but the voters will feel it, and will not want to put it at risk.
So Miliband has his work cut out. If he plays safe and waits for the coalition to lose, he will merely line Labour up for more opposition. Labour was recording poll leads of 10 percentage points after the omnishambles budget last year, but is now down to an average of just 4%. So Miliband has his work cut out. If he plays safe and waits for the coalition to lose, he will merely line Labour up for more opposition. Labour was recording poll leads of 10 percentage points after the omnishambles budget last year, but is now down to an average of just four.
Of course, Labour has the advantage that with the same number of votes as the Tories it would still be the largest party due to lower turnouts and smaller electorates. But with 19 months to go, Miliband does not have the luxury of a large lead.Of course, Labour has the advantage that with the same number of votes as the Tories it would still be the largest party due to lower turnouts and smaller electorates. But with 19 months to go, Miliband does not have the luxury of a large lead.
That is why Lord Collins's interim proposals on the Labour party's trade union links are so important, even if Miliband stumbled on the notion accidentally in the wake of the Falkirk selection battle. There is no line that gets Liberal Democrats nodding more quickly – and I suspect swing voters too – than the proposal that parties should not be in the pockets of either unions or big business. Voters hate vested interests, and the perception is that trade union bosses wield undue influence within Labour (whatever their actual loss of power). To connect directly with hundreds of thousands of union members who could become Labour supporters is a huge prize for any radical party.That is why Lord Collins's interim proposals on the Labour party's trade union links are so important, even if Miliband stumbled on the notion accidentally in the wake of the Falkirk selection battle. There is no line that gets Liberal Democrats nodding more quickly – and I suspect swing voters too – than the proposal that parties should not be in the pockets of either unions or big business. Voters hate vested interests, and the perception is that trade union bosses wield undue influence within Labour (whatever their actual loss of power). To connect directly with hundreds of thousands of union members who could become Labour supporters is a huge prize for any radical party.
Change is hard to engineer at any time, but particularly if there is not a substantial movement of people making the case outside Westminster. With Tory membership down to 134,000 and the Liberal Democrats down to 43,000, adding perhaps300,000 engaged Labour members to the existing 188,000 could also be a game-changer in the ground war. If Miliband achieves that next year – and he should get enough support with both Usdaw and Community – he will transform public perceptions of himself and his party.Change is hard to engineer at any time, but particularly if there is not a substantial movement of people making the case outside Westminster. With Tory membership down to 134,000 and the Liberal Democrats down to 43,000, adding perhaps300,000 engaged Labour members to the existing 188,000 could also be a game-changer in the ground war. If Miliband achieves that next year – and he should get enough support with both Usdaw and Community – he will transform public perceptions of himself and his party.
The other risk that Miliband needs to take is to open up shared space with the Liberal Democrats in case the two parties can put together a working majority next time. Most Lib Dems (including MPs) wanted – and still want – a coalition with Labour, but there will have to be a genuine fit of plans and programmes to make a centre-left coalition work.The other risk that Miliband needs to take is to open up shared space with the Liberal Democrats in case the two parties can put together a working majority next time. Most Lib Dems (including MPs) wanted – and still want – a coalition with Labour, but there will have to be a genuine fit of plans and programmes to make a centre-left coalition work.
Most of what went into the coalition programme required no negotiation because it was based on similar commitments in both Conservative and Liberal Democrat manifestos, particularly on climate change, ID cards, lengthy detention without trial and even House of Lords reform. Holding the Conservatives to their own manifesto (particularly on climate change or Lords reform) subsequently proved more difficult.Most of what went into the coalition programme required no negotiation because it was based on similar commitments in both Conservative and Liberal Democrat manifestos, particularly on climate change, ID cards, lengthy detention without trial and even House of Lords reform. Holding the Conservatives to their own manifesto (particularly on climate change or Lords reform) subsequently proved more difficult.
What of economics? It was the Greek crisis that led the Liberal Democrat negotiating team in 2010 to support an emergency fiscal package of £6bn. With a proportionately bigger budget deficit, we could easily have had a run on sterling, a hike in interest rates, and a double dip recession. Contagion was a real threat.What of economics? It was the Greek crisis that led the Liberal Democrat negotiating team in 2010 to support an emergency fiscal package of £6bn. With a proportionately bigger budget deficit, we could easily have had a run on sterling, a hike in interest rates, and a double dip recession. Contagion was a real threat.
There is now a potential Lab-Lib economic programme for a fairer and speedier recovery based on green investment and growth, EU influence and internationalism, help for social mobility, and investment in new town housing whose rents can improve the public finances and raise living standards. Miliband should bury Labour's instinctive tribalism and quietly let that agenda flourish.There is now a potential Lab-Lib economic programme for a fairer and speedier recovery based on green investment and growth, EU influence and internationalism, help for social mobility, and investment in new town housing whose rents can improve the public finances and raise living standards. Miliband should bury Labour's instinctive tribalism and quietly let that agenda flourish.
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