US illegal immigration may be increasing, study shows

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/23/us-illegal-immigration-rising

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After dropping during the recession, the number of undocumented migrants crossing the border into the US appears to be on the rise again.

The total number of migrants living in this country without papers edged up from 11.3m in 2009 to 11.7m last year, with those from countries other than Mexico at an apparent all-time high, according to a report released Monday by Pew Research Center's Hispanic Trends Project.

The change is within the margin of error for this survey, and there will be a more precise census measure released later this year. Still, based in part on other factors such as increased US border apprehensions, the sharp decline in illegal immigration from 2007-2009 has clearly bottomed out, with signs the numbers are now rising, Pew said.

Pew said that among the six states with the largest numbers of undocumented migrants, only Texas had a consistent increase in illegal immigration from 2007 to 2011, due in part to its stronger economy. Its number was unchanged from 2011 to 2012. Two states – Florida and New Jersey – had an initial drop but then increases during the same 2007-2011 period. Three states – California, Illinois and New York – showed only declines.

"As a whole, with the recession ending, the decrease in illegal immigration has stopped," said Jeffrey Passel, a senior demographer at Pew.

Analysts said it was hard to predict whether undocumented migrants could eventually exceed the record total of 12.2m in 2007. Continued modest increases are possible, but another increase like the one seen in the late 1990s and early 2000s isn't likely, due in part to demographic factors such as Mexico's ageing workforce.

"Labor demand in the US is still slack and wages are eroding, whereas there are jobs in Mexico and wages are slowly rising as labor force growth there decelerates," said Douglas Massey, a professor of sociology and public affairs at Princeton University who is co-director of the Mexican Migration Project. "The pressures for mass migration are diminishing for now, but who knows what kind of disasters lie ahead?"

Analyses of census data from the US and Mexican governments show that the number of undocumented migrants peaked at 12.2m in 2007, during the US housing boom, and before the recession hit. It then dropped roughly 7% to 11.3m in 2009, the first two-year decline in two decades, due to the weak US economy which shrank construction and service-sector jobs. Much of the decline came as many Mexican workers who already were here saw diminishing job opportunities and returned home.

Since then, the US economy has shown some improvement, while public opinion regarding migrants has shifted in some cases in favor of granting legal rights. For instance, some state legislatures this year have passed migrant-friendly measures such as college tuition breaks and rights to driver's licenses, even as others enacted laws aimed at tightening the system.

In all, the number of undocumented Mexican migrants stood at roughly 6m last year, down from the 2007 peak of 6.9m and largely unchanged since 2010. Mexicans now make up 52% migrants in the US without papers, down from 57% in 2007.

The level of illegal immigration from countries other than Mexico rose to a record 5.65m, higher than the 5m in 2009 and apparently surpassing the 2007 peak of 5.25m. The record number in 2012 is a preliminary determination because of margins of error in the surveys.

In past surveys, non-Mexican migrants here without papers have come primarily from Central America, at roughly 15%; followed by South America, the Caribbean and other parts of Latin America at 12%; and Asia, at roughly 10%. The Obama administration has recently said that unrest and poverty in many Central American nations are a large factor behind illegal immigration into the US.

Separately, US Border Patrol data show a modest increase in the number of apprehensions at the Mexican border from 2011 to 2012, increasing to 365,000. That was because of growing apprehensions of non-Mexicans, as opposed to Mexicans, which declined. Historically, increases in border apprehensions have tended to coincide with increases in illegal immigration.

In particular, analysts have said that migrants are shifting their migration paths from Arizona to deep southern Texas, due in part to that state's stronger economy, as well as increases in Central American migrants who seek a more direct route to the US.

The latest numbers on illegal immigration come as prospects for passage of a comprehensive US immigration bill appear dim. A bill passed by the Democratic-controlled Senate and backed by the White House includes billions for border security as well as a 13-year path to citizenship for the 11m undocumented migrants already here.

But most House Republicans have rejected this comprehensive approach, and the House judiciary committee has moved forward with individual, single-issue immigration bills that could come to the floor sometime later this year or next. It's unclear whether the GOP-dominated House will ever pass legislation that could form the basis for a final deal with the Democratic-controlled Senate.

"The numbers remind us the problem of illegal immigration isn't going away anytime soon, unless we take steps to enforce the laws or have legalization of those here illegally," said Steve A Camarota, director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington group that advocates tighter immigration policies.

The Pew analysis is based on census data through March 2012. Because the Census Bureau does not ask people about their immigration status, the estimate on undocumented migrants is derived largely by subtracting the estimated legal immigrant population from the total foreign-born population.

It is a method that has been used by the government and Pew for many years and is generally accepted.

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