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Welsh budget facing further £1.5bn of cuts, warns IFS Welsh budget facing further £1.5bn of cuts, warns IFS
(34 minutes later)
Nearly £1.5bn of cuts could be made to the Welsh government's budget over the next four years, a leading think tank has warned.Nearly £1.5bn of cuts could be made to the Welsh government's budget over the next four years, a leading think tank has warned.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said this would be on top of a near 10% budget cut since 2010.The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said this would be on top of a near 10% budget cut since 2010.
It also revealed the Welsh NHS had faced far deeper cuts than its counterparts in England or Scotland.It also revealed the Welsh NHS had faced far deeper cuts than its counterparts in England or Scotland.
The Welsh government says it has pursued distinctive Welsh budgets to reflect its priorities. The Welsh government said the report showed the challenges faced since UK government budget cuts in 2010.
The report will be launched at a conference in Cardiff on Thursday on how public services meet the financial challenges.The report will be launched at a conference in Cardiff on Thursday on how public services meet the financial challenges.
The IFS said Welsh ministers faced at least another four years of cuts, alongside growing pressure on health and social care, which could see dramatic cuts in other areas of expenditure, such as transport, culture and housing.The IFS said Welsh ministers faced at least another four years of cuts, alongside growing pressure on health and social care, which could see dramatic cuts in other areas of expenditure, such as transport, culture and housing.
These spending reductions are likely to be between £800m and £1.4bn, depending on economic growth and UK government financial decisions.These spending reductions are likely to be between £800m and £1.4bn, depending on economic growth and UK government financial decisions.
The Welsh government's budget currently stands at around £15bn.The Welsh government's budget currently stands at around £15bn.
The IFS has also analysed the Welsh government's budget decisions since 2010.The IFS has also analysed the Welsh government's budget decisions since 2010.
It said the health budget had been cut by 8.6% in real terms, with the economy department cut by 20.8% and education and skills by 10.1%.It said the health budget had been cut by 8.6% in real terms, with the economy department cut by 20.8% and education and skills by 10.1%.
But local government had seen a much smaller cut of around 4.5%.But local government had seen a much smaller cut of around 4.5%.
In contrast, the Scottish health budget had risen by 0.4% in real terms over the same period and the English health budget had increased by 3.1%.In contrast, the Scottish health budget had risen by 0.4% in real terms over the same period and the English health budget had increased by 3.1%.
Welsh Conservatives have consistently attacked what they have called "record breaking cuts" to the Welsh NHS.Welsh Conservatives have consistently attacked what they have called "record breaking cuts" to the Welsh NHS.
But the Welsh government says it has pursued "distinctive Welsh budgets that reflect our priorities, based on principles of fairness and social justice".But the Welsh government says it has pursued "distinctive Welsh budgets that reflect our priorities, based on principles of fairness and social justice".
The Welsh draft budget for 2014-15 is due to be unveiled on 8 October, following a review of spending on the NHS over the summer.The Welsh draft budget for 2014-15 is due to be unveiled on 8 October, following a review of spending on the NHS over the summer.
Senior IFS research economist and report author David Phillips said: "The planned UK-wide austerity implies four more years of cuts to the Welsh government's budget, on top of the cuts already implemented since 2010-11.Senior IFS research economist and report author David Phillips said: "The planned UK-wide austerity implies four more years of cuts to the Welsh government's budget, on top of the cuts already implemented since 2010-11.
"Overall this means that spending by the Welsh government in 2017-18 is set to be between 14% and 17% lower than it was in 2010-11, and at a similar level to that seen around 2004-05.""Overall this means that spending by the Welsh government in 2017-18 is set to be between 14% and 17% lower than it was in 2010-11, and at a similar level to that seen around 2004-05."
He warned that even in a less austere financial climate, major challenges would still lie ahead.He warned that even in a less austere financial climate, major challenges would still lie ahead.
"Even an increase in the total Welsh government budget of just over one-fifth over the period 2017-18 to 2025-26 would still lead to difficult trade-offs being necessary."Even an increase in the total Welsh government budget of just over one-fifth over the period 2017-18 to 2025-26 would still lead to difficult trade-offs being necessary.
"A growing and ageing population and rising demand for health, social care and schools spending could mean spending on other services in 12 years' time remaining substantially below current levels and, indeed, perhaps facing continuing cuts even after the fiscal repair job is complete."A growing and ageing population and rising demand for health, social care and schools spending could mean spending on other services in 12 years' time remaining substantially below current levels and, indeed, perhaps facing continuing cuts even after the fiscal repair job is complete.
"A focus of the Welsh government should be on ways of reducing the demand and cost pressures facing these public services over the coming years.""A focus of the Welsh government should be on ways of reducing the demand and cost pressures facing these public services over the coming years."
Responding to the report, a spokesperson for the Welsh government said: "The IFS report clearly shows the significant financial challenges we have faced since the UK government introduced unprecedented cuts to our budget in 2010.
"Successive UK budgets have brought further cuts and, as indicated by the IFS report, all evidence is that there is more to come."
The Welsh government said it had set out a clear vision of how, against a challenging financial settlement, it aimed to improve public services.
Thursday's conference will be addressed by Sir Paul Williams who is leading a commission on public service reform across health, education and local government which is due to report in the coming months.Thursday's conference will be addressed by Sir Paul Williams who is leading a commission on public service reform across health, education and local government which is due to report in the coming months.