Tony Abbott should tone down rhetoric and turn back his asylum policy

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/27/tony-abbott-turn-back-asylum-policy

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Tony Abbott insists his asylum policy will be but a “passing irritant” in Australia’s relationship with Indonesia. For that to be true he will need to tone down or abandon some of his signature plans for tackling people smuggling.

The “village watch” policy, including the plan to buy Indonesian fishing boats, may have to be dumped and “turning back” boats will have to be done quietly, slowly and co-operatively, if at all, according to some of Australia’s leading Indonesia experts.

It’s a dilemma for a prime minister who was loud and dogmatic in his pre-election promises but who also knows that to actually stop people smuggling he requires above all else the co-operation of Indonesia, which has been jeopardised by his own tough talk.

“The incoming government will not do foolish things," he told 3AW on Friday. "We will do strong and sensible things which build on the good relationship that we already have with Indonesia.”

The problem for Abbott is that the things that might look strong and sensible at home might be foolish for a prime minister wanting a good relationship with Indonesia.

He now has to figure out how to reverse the impression he gave Australian voters that Operation Sovereign Borders and a few quick forays north by the navy could “stop the boats” almost straight away – a repositioning begun already with the post-election revelation that we won’t in fact be told if any boats have been turned back at all.

Because having promised Australians he will “turn back the boats” on hundreds if not thousands of occasions, Abbott makes his first overseas trip as prime minister to Jakarta on Monday still unsure whether the policy is diplomatically possible.

Indonesia has been absolutely clear it will countenance no breach of its territorial sovereignty.

Indonesia’s foreign minister, Marty Natalegawa, revealed – the Indonesian foreign ministry later said inadvertently – that he had told Australia’s new foreign minister, Julie Bishop, that "unilateral measures taken by Australia would potentially risk the close co-operation and trust between the two countries that has been established through [the] Bali process, and thus should be avoided".

Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a senior adviser to the Indonesian vice-president, Boediono, told the ABC: “If there is any policy that would infringe on our sovereignty – for example, Australian navy making entry into Indonesian waters to chase boats – clearly that would be totally unacceptable … That would be considered an unfriendly act, if not downright hostile.”

She said navy-led action to turn back boats could even possibly lead to naval conflict.

There has been some mismatch between the Indonesian reaction and what the Abbott government is actually proposing, because the Coalition plan appears to be to tow boats back towards the maritime border between the two nations and leave them there with only enough fuel to make it back to Indonesia, but not to transgress Indonesia’s territorial border.

If we forget for a second the practical and humanitarian difficulties of boats scuttling themselves the minute the Australian navy vessel heads south, and the legal difficulties of the proposition – outlined by the ABC fact-checking unit this week – the real question for Abbott’s visit to Jakarta is how Indonesia reacts to this slightly more nuanced proposition.

News emerged on Friday that up to 70 asylum seekers rescued in Indonesian waters by the Australian navy had been returned to Indonesia rather than taken to Christmas Island, but it was unclear whether this represented any change to Indonesia’s attitude.

Those who watch the relationship most closely say they just don’t know how it will play out.

But they are certain that anything done without Indonesia’s co-operation and at least tacit acceptance would be counterproductive – both for the aim of stopping people smuggling and for the bilateral relationship.

“It’s a murky area,” said Tim Lindsey, director of the Centre for Indonesian Law, Islam and Society at the Melbourne Law School.

“At the end of the day these are invisible lines in the ocean so whether the navy stops at the maritime border or not, it may not look much different from Indonesia and may still be something they are deeply uncomfortable with,” he said.

“Indonesia has not articulated exactly what it means by a breach of sovereignty and I think everyone should hold their breath and wait for the outcome of the negotiations. Indonesia has gone to great pains to keep out of the Australian political debate during the election campaign, but now that pre-election rhetoric has to be replaced by substantive and sensible discussions.”

Andrew MacIntyre, dean of the Australian National University's College of Asia and the Pacific says: “If it can be done at all it would have to be done in a way that does not involve a loss of face; it would have to be done quietly and over time and in co-operation with Indonesia.”

And, says Peter McCawley of the ANU’s Indonesia Project: “We just don’t know … how Indonesia will react, but the real problem is we need Indonesia’s co-operation to deal with this and the risk is if Australia pursues the turn-back policy too publicly and vigorously, achieving Indonesia’s co-operation will become much more difficult.”

But the experts are clear that the Coalition’s “village watch” policy should be abandoned.

“They should forget it. If I was on Abbott’s staff I’d be telling him not to raise it at all,” McCawley said.

According to Lindsey, “Village watch was received extremely badly in Indonesia. It reeks of an arrogant white country interfering in Indonesia’s affairs.”

It’s an early lesson for the Coalition in the difference between loud assertions from opposition, and governing – when implementation will quickly prove or disprove whether what you are saying is in fact true or workable.

Abbott and Bishop are now insisting they will not engage in “megaphone diplomacy”.

That memo has apparently not reached the former foreign minister Alexander Downer, who said: “Let me make this point for Mr Natalegawa's benefit: Indonesian boats, Indonesian-flagged boats with Indonesian crews are breaking our laws, bringing people into our territorial waters … This is a breach of our sovereignty and the Indonesians need to understand that, instead of a lot of pious rhetoric.”

And with the presidential election next year and Australian asylum policy a front-page issue, some Indonesian politicians and commentators are also reaching for megaphones.

If Abbott really wants boat people to be a “passing irritant” in one of Australia’s most important bilateral relationships, he’s going to have to climb down from some of his loudest pre-election protestations.

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