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Nigel Farage has made an offer the Tories shouldn't refuse Nigel Farage has made an offer the Tories shouldn't refuse
(34 minutes later)
Ukip's offer not to stand against local Conservative candidates who agree with its policies should be a no-brainer for the Tories. Bring it on. Why should the party order a Eurosceptic Tory MP to commit suicide, just because David Cameron dislikes the Ukip leader, Nigel Farage? Why should the Tories collectively deny themselves any way of securing a majority in the next parliament for the same reason?Ukip's offer not to stand against local Conservative candidates who agree with its policies should be a no-brainer for the Tories. Bring it on. Why should the party order a Eurosceptic Tory MP to commit suicide, just because David Cameron dislikes the Ukip leader, Nigel Farage? Why should the Tories collectively deny themselves any way of securing a majority in the next parliament for the same reason?
British elections are still in the dark ages. Indirect systems based on electoral colleges, which include the UK and America, are determined by "swing constituencies". An American presidential election is decided in just a dozen states, which means that campaigning is non-existent elsewhere. British elections are still in the dark ages. Indirect systems that include the UK and US, are determined by "swing constituencies". A US presidential election is decided in just a dozen states, which means that campaigning is non-existent elsewhere.
British elections are not so clear-cut, but the principle is the same. The overwhelming majority of seats are "safe" and campaigning in them is a waste of time and money. Effort should concentrate on the 50 or so "key marginals". Of these, 32 Tory-held ones have been identified by the party's private pollster, Lord Ashcroft, as meriting total attention. And the most glaring fact about them, he shouts from the rooftops, is that Ukip has roughly tripled its vote share in them since 2010. Forget national swings. Focus on the marginals.British elections are not so clear-cut, but the principle is the same. The overwhelming majority of seats are "safe" and campaigning in them is a waste of time and money. Effort should concentrate on the 50 or so "key marginals". Of these, 32 Tory-held ones have been identified by the party's private pollster, Lord Ashcroft, as meriting total attention. And the most glaring fact about them, he shouts from the rooftops, is that Ukip has roughly tripled its vote share in them since 2010. Forget national swings. Focus on the marginals.
Farage has little to lose in these seats. He is not going to win the next general election – he will be lucky to pick up more than a few seats. But if he can help a few Eurosceptic Tories save theirs, he will win their thanks and the gratitude of many other Tories for being a decent sort of chap, which so far has been his chief electoral asset. Besides, as he says cheekily, "we are a party that believes in localism."Farage has little to lose in these seats. He is not going to win the next general election – he will be lucky to pick up more than a few seats. But if he can help a few Eurosceptic Tories save theirs, he will win their thanks and the gratitude of many other Tories for being a decent sort of chap, which so far has been his chief electoral asset. Besides, as he says cheekily, "we are a party that believes in localism."
As for the Tories, they have done everything to help Farage's cause, from ineptitude over the EU referendum to anti-rural policies detested by many of their supporters, such as centralised planning, windfarms and high-speed rail. For the Tories to ridicule Ukip just now is senseless. It may be a fly-by-night protest party, but like the SDP in the 1980s, it has the potency to deny its mother party at least one election victory. The Tory watchword just now should be survival.As for the Tories, they have done everything to help Farage's cause, from ineptitude over the EU referendum to anti-rural policies detested by many of their supporters, such as centralised planning, windfarms and high-speed rail. For the Tories to ridicule Ukip just now is senseless. It may be a fly-by-night protest party, but like the SDP in the 1980s, it has the potency to deny its mother party at least one election victory. The Tory watchword just now should be survival.
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