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| Silvio Berlusconi's allies turn on him to keep Italy's grand coalition alive | Silvio Berlusconi's allies turn on him to keep Italy's grand coalition alive |
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| Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's longest-serving postwar prime minister, who has dominated the country's politics for two decades, appeared to be facing an unprecedented rebellion in his own party last night that raised hopes of the eurozone's third-largest economy avoiding a government collapse. | Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's longest-serving postwar prime minister, who has dominated the country's politics for two decades, appeared to be facing an unprecedented rebellion in his own party last night that raised hopes of the eurozone's third-largest economy avoiding a government collapse. |
| On the eve of a make-or-break day in parliament during which the prime minister, Enrico Letta, is likely to call for a confidence vote in the grand coalition he has headed since April, Berlusconi's Freedom People (PdL) party appeared on Tuesday night to be deeply and perhaps irrevocably split. | On the eve of a make-or-break day in parliament during which the prime minister, Enrico Letta, is likely to call for a confidence vote in the grand coalition he has headed since April, Berlusconi's Freedom People (PdL) party appeared on Tuesday night to be deeply and perhaps irrevocably split. |
| If the vote is called and fails, Letta will have to resign and the government will fall, a situation likely to spread shockwaves through the European markets. It would presage a fresh period of uncertainty for a recession-mired country that has already spent two months in political limbo this year, and could theoretically prompt a new election. | If the vote is called and fails, Letta will have to resign and the government will fall, a situation likely to spread shockwaves through the European markets. It would presage a fresh period of uncertainty for a recession-mired country that has already spent two months in political limbo this year, and could theoretically prompt a new election. |
| However, as outrage about Berlusconi's decision to withdraw his ministers from the coalition built not only among his opponents but also within his own party, hopes grew last night that the Letta government could be saved by a faction of disgruntled PdL "doves". | However, as outrage about Berlusconi's decision to withdraw his ministers from the coalition built not only among his opponents but also within his own party, hopes grew last night that the Letta government could be saved by a faction of disgruntled PdL "doves". |
| To win the confidence vote in the senate, Letta needs to attract extra votes from either the centre-right PdL or the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) to reach the magic number of 161. He has said, however, that he has no interest in continuing at the head of a government that only sneaks in by a handful of votes. | To win the confidence vote in the senate, Letta needs to attract extra votes from either the centre-right PdL or the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) to reach the magic number of 161. He has said, however, that he has no interest in continuing at the head of a government that only sneaks in by a handful of votes. |
| His chances appeared to have been significantly boosted on Tuesday, when Carlo Giovanardi, a long-time ally of Berlusconi, struck the first major blow when he announced that "more than 40" PdL MPs were prepared to vote to keep the government afloat. | His chances appeared to have been significantly boosted on Tuesday, when Carlo Giovanardi, a long-time ally of Berlusconi, struck the first major blow when he announced that "more than 40" PdL MPs were prepared to vote to keep the government afloat. |
| Then, in a stunning move likened by one observer to an "Et tu, Brute?" moment, Angelino Alfano, the deputy prime minister long seen as Berlusconi's political heir, appeared to solidify the mutiny. "I remain firmly convinced that all our party should tomorrow back the confidence vote in Letta," he said, according to Ansa. | Then, in a stunning move likened by one observer to an "Et tu, Brute?" moment, Angelino Alfano, the deputy prime minister long seen as Berlusconi's political heir, appeared to solidify the mutiny. "I remain firmly convinced that all our party should tomorrow back the confidence vote in Letta," he said, according to Ansa. |
| His words appeared to defy the 77-year-old billionaire party chief, who on Friday faces a senate committee vote – which is almost certain to go against him – on whether he should be stripped of his seat because of his conviction for tax fraud. | His words appeared to defy the 77-year-old billionaire party chief, who on Friday faces a senate committee vote – which is almost certain to go against him – on whether he should be stripped of his seat because of his conviction for tax fraud. |
| Amid a series of contradictory statements in recent days, Berlusconi has called for Italy to return to the polls "as soon as possible". | Amid a series of contradictory statements in recent days, Berlusconi has called for Italy to return to the polls "as soon as possible". |
| Analysts said it was still too soon to count Berlusconi out and that it was still possible that the wily politician, who has a history of dramatic comebacks and narrowly scraped triumphs, could limit the damage on Wednesday, perhaps by reversing his own position on the vote. | Analysts said it was still too soon to count Berlusconi out and that it was still possible that the wily politician, who has a history of dramatic comebacks and narrowly scraped triumphs, could limit the damage on Wednesday, perhaps by reversing his own position on the vote. |
| In the face of growing anger within the centre-right, he had already floated the possibility of supporting a quickfire series of economic measures and providing some form of temporary external support to the Letta government. | In the face of growing anger within the centre-right, he had already floated the possibility of supporting a quickfire series of economic measures and providing some form of temporary external support to the Letta government. |
| But this proposal was rejected outright as unworkable by senior figures in the centre-left Democratic party, of which Letta is a member. The prime minister is known to be dead against working again with Berlusconi's more hawkish MPs, whom he blames for indulging their leader in what he sees as a naked attempt to protect himself against mounting legal woes. | But this proposal was rejected outright as unworkable by senior figures in the centre-left Democratic party, of which Letta is a member. The prime minister is known to be dead against working again with Berlusconi's more hawkish MPs, whom he blames for indulging their leader in what he sees as a naked attempt to protect himself against mounting legal woes. |
| For Letta, Tuesday's session in the upper house of parliament will be by far the biggest test of his career. The mild-mannered 47-year-old has attempted to reconcile the centre-left and centre-right for five months, a task which became dramatically more difficult after Berlusconi's conviction on 1 August. | For Letta, Tuesday's session in the upper house of parliament will be by far the biggest test of his career. The mild-mannered 47-year-old has attempted to reconcile the centre-left and centre-right for five months, a task which became dramatically more difficult after Berlusconi's conviction on 1 August. |
| If the numbers claimed by Giovanardi are borne out – and analysts warned against assuming anything – Letta would have a majority which would afford him room for manoeuvre. Observers say he will want at least 20 votes in order to be content. | If the numbers claimed by Giovanardi are borne out – and analysts warned against assuming anything – Letta would have a majority which would afford him room for manoeuvre. Observers say he will want at least 20 votes in order to be content. |
| If, during the debates on Tuesday, he senses that he does not have the support needed, he could choose not to call a vote and go instead to the Quirinale to have a crisis meeting with the president, Giorgio Napolitano. | If, during the debates on Tuesday, he senses that he does not have the support needed, he could choose not to call a vote and go instead to the Quirinale to have a crisis meeting with the president, Giorgio Napolitano. |
| The 88-year-old head of state, forced to serve an unprecedented second term in the aftermath of February's inconclusive election, is desperate to avoid a crunch vote that would see the government fall. | The 88-year-old head of state, forced to serve an unprecedented second term in the aftermath of February's inconclusive election, is desperate to avoid a crunch vote that would see the government fall. |
| He does not want Italians to return to the polls any time soon, especially before a new electoral law is passed that could avoid returning a deadlocked parliament as in February. | He does not want Italians to return to the polls any time soon, especially before a new electoral law is passed that could avoid returning a deadlocked parliament as in February. |
| In recent days, critics of Berlusconi's strategy, from the Vatican to Italy's leading employers' association, have lined up to condemn him for risking a new period of turmoil in a country struggling to exit its longest recession in decades. | In recent days, critics of Berlusconi's strategy, from the Vatican to Italy's leading employers' association, have lined up to condemn him for risking a new period of turmoil in a country struggling to exit its longest recession in decades. |
| Italy's statistics agency, Istat, announced on Tuesday that, for the first time since records began, youth unemployment rose above 40% in August. Overall joblessness stands at 12.2%. | |
| For the Democratic party and other supporters of the Letta government, this is reason enough for the government not to be made to fall. | For the Democratic party and other supporters of the Letta government, this is reason enough for the government not to be made to fall. |
| "This country needs anything but more electoral and political limbo," said Sandro Gozi, a PD MP. He said that to go to new elections without first redrawing the electoral law that led to a deadlocked senate would be "masochistic". "We would risk finding ourselves in exactly the same situation as today," he said. | "This country needs anything but more electoral and political limbo," said Sandro Gozi, a PD MP. He said that to go to new elections without first redrawing the electoral law that led to a deadlocked senate would be "masochistic". "We would risk finding ourselves in exactly the same situation as today," he said. |
| But, over in the M5S, the view is different. Its MPs are expected to vote en masse against the confidence vote. "The situation is extremely serious. There is a government crisis with a totally fractured majority," said Paola Carinelli, who represents the M5S in the chamber. "But precisely because of this, what sense is there in keeping it alive? Rather let's have new elections." | But, over in the M5S, the view is different. Its MPs are expected to vote en masse against the confidence vote. "The situation is extremely serious. There is a government crisis with a totally fractured majority," said Paola Carinelli, who represents the M5S in the chamber. "But precisely because of this, what sense is there in keeping it alive? Rather let's have new elections." |
| She said the government had failed to deliver. "What a government should be doing in a situation of this gravity is respond to the problems of the country. Instead, in recent weeks, they have just been arguing with each other and not prioritising the interests of the country," she said. | She said the government had failed to deliver. "What a government should be doing in a situation of this gravity is respond to the problems of the country. Instead, in recent weeks, they have just been arguing with each other and not prioritising the interests of the country," she said. |
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