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Kerry Arrives in Kabul Amid Security Deal Impasse Kerry Visits Afghan Leader, Seeking End to an Impasse
(about 11 hours later)
KABUL, Afghanistan — With talks on keeping American forces here beyond next year deadlocked, Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Kabul on Friday to try to break the impasse and head off a full American withdrawal from Afghanistan. KABUL, Afghanistan — Last Saturday, Secretary of State John Kerry called President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan with a simple question: If Mr. Kerry came to Kabul, would it help break a deadlock in negotiations to keep American forces in Afghanistan beyond next year?
Mr. Kerry, whose visit was previously unannounced, was counting on his relatively good relationship with President Hamid Karzai to push through the two remaining sticking points in the talks on a long-term security deal that would allow American forces to remain here after the NATO combat mission ends in 2014. The Afghan leader suggested it would, and Mr. Kerry arrived here on Friday for a previously unannounced visit that, in the estimation of many Afghan and American officials, represented the best and, possibly, the last chance to head off a complete American withdrawal when the NATO combat mission here ends in 2014.
But with neither Afghan nor American officials showing much willingness to compromise, a senior Western diplomat put the odds of a deal at “no better than 50-50.” Mr. Kerry’s decision to make the trip provided a respite from the pessimism that has spread rapidly in Kabul over the past week as the depth of impasse faced by negotiators became apparent. Some Afghan and American officials reasoned that Mr. Kerry would not make such a public bid to rescue the talks if his chances of success were slim.
Senior officials on both sides expressed confidence over the summer that a deal would get done, and American generals spoke of staying on after 2014 as an inevitability. But the talks hit a wall, and both Mr. Karzai and President Obama have signaled in recent weeks that they are willing to walk away, if necessary. Still, few here thought success was a given for Mr. Kerry. Hours before his arrival, a senior Western diplomat put the odds of a deal at “no better than 50-50.”
Most of the issues that officials were most concerned about when talks began a year ago have been settled. The matter of legal immunity for American troops, which derailed similar talks with Iraq in 2011, is already set, for instance. Alongside the deadlocked negotiations, Afghan and American officials have also struggled in the past week to contain another potential crisis. A week ago, American forces intercepted a convoy of Afghan intelligence agents and seized a senior leader of the Pakistan Taliban, an offshoot of the Afghan insurgent movement, whom the agents were taking to Kabul, said Aimal Faizi, the spokesman for Mr. Karzai.
Instead, the two sides now find themselves struggling to bridge the divide on a pair of demands that Mr. Karzai says must be met, and that the Obama administration says it cannot or will not consider. The Taliban leader, Latif Mehsud, was turned by Afghan intelligence roughly two years ago and had become a valuable asset, said an Afghan familiar with the situation. He was on his way to meet with senior Afghan intelligence officials in Kabul when American forces took him away at gunpoint along a road in Logar Province, south of the capital. He is now believed to be in American custody at Bagram Air Base, north of Kabul.
The first is Mr. Karzai’s insistence that the United States guarantee Afghanistan’s security as it would if the country were a NATO ally. That could compel the United States to send troops on raids into Pakistan, an ally of Washington and a nuclear-armed power. American officials said the Afghans turned over Mr. Mehsud at the request of American forces, but the officials did not provide any additional details.
The Afghan leader is also refusing to allow American forces to continue hunting for operatives of Al Qaeda here. Instead, he wants any intelligence gathered by the United States handed over to Afghan forces, who could then conduct the raids on their own. Mr. Karzai is said to be furious about the seizure of Mr. Mehsud by the Americans, raising further doubts about his readiness to compromise on a deal with the United States.
If the Americans are unwilling to meet both conditions, “they can leave,” Mr. Karzai told the British Broadcasting Corp. in an interview this week. The doubts surrounding the talks to keep troops here represent a sharp departure from only months ago, when American generals spoke of a post-2014 force as an inevitability and Afghan officials said the only question was how many troops would remain, not if they would get any at all.
The Obama administration has made it clear that it may do just that. American officials have set an Oct. 31 deadline for striking a deal to keep troops here. But that certainty has given way to a last-minute scramble after nearly a year of talks. The Obama administration has set an Oct. 31 deadline for their conclusion, and Mr. Karzai and Mr. Obama have both signaled they are willing to walk away if necessary.
Though administration officials say the deadline is not “hard,” they also say the White House wants a deal worked out in principle in the coming weeks or it will cut off talks and begin preparing for what has become known as the zero option. The sticking points are two Afghan demands that Mr. Karzai has said are crucial to the country’s sovereignty, but that the Obama administration says it will not consider.
The pullout would be along the lines of what took place in Iraq, but the consequences for Afghanistan could be far more troubling. Afghanistan’s economy is anemic, and the government depends on the international community to pay almost 80 percent of its expenses. The first is Mr. Karzai’s insistence that the United States guarantee Afghanistan’s security as if were a NATO ally. That could compel the United States to send troops on raids into Pakistan, an ally of Washington and a nuclear-armed power.
The Taliban, meanwhile, remain a far more organized and potent threat than any Iraqi insurgent group was when American forces were forced to leave the Middle Eastern country at the end of 2011 after American and Iraqi officials failed to strike a deal that would have allowed them to stay on. Mr. Karzai is also refusing to allow American forces to continue hunting here for operatives of Al Qaeda. Instead, he wants any intelligence gathered by the United States handed over to Afghan forces, who would then conduct the raids on their own.
If a deal is reached, Mr. Karzai has said he will need to hold what is known as a Loya Jirga – a traditional gathering of elders and other powerful people – to approve the pact. The Afghan government is planning to hold a Jirga within the next four or five weeks, Afghan officials said. Mr. Kerry, one of the few American officials who still has a good relationship with Mr. Karzai, arrived late Friday afternoon and headed straight to the presidential palace for meetings and a dinner. The evening concluded with him and Mr. Karzai taking a short walk together alone.
American officials have not said whether they are willing to wait that long, though another Western diplomat here said he believed the Obama administration would be patient as long as a deal was worked out in the next few weeks. The two sides were “candid about their differences,” a senior State Department official said. But the “differences coming in were narrowed,” the official said, declining to elaborate.
Mr. Karzai raised the seizing of the Pakistan Taliban leader, the official said, adding that talks were to continue Saturday morning before Mr. Kerry left for Paris.
American officials sought to temper expectations that Mr. Kerry would walk away from Kabul with a final agreement. “The negotiations were going on before he got here, they’ll be going on after he leaves,” the State Department official said. “What this is really about is building momentum for the negotiators.”
A complete American withdrawal would force the European allies to pull out as well, and would most likely lead to a steep drop in the billions of dollars in annual aid, which pays roughly 80 percent of Afghanistan’s bills and props up its biggest businesses, American and European officials have said.
The Taliban, meanwhile, remain a potent threat that Afghan forces are not yet ready to face entirely on their own. Most of the post-2014 force, as envisioned by American commanders, would be assigned to train the Afghans; a smaller element would be made up of Special Operations Forces focused on targeting Qaeda operatives.
Mr. Kerry has previously cajoled Mr. Karzai into taking a deal he initially opposed. After the disputed 2009 election here, Mr. Kerry convinced Mr. Karzai to accept a runoff against his leading contender for president. His rival then conceded the race as part of the deal brokered by Mr. Kerry.

Thom Shanker contributed reporting from Washington.