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Warnings Help India’s Response to Cyclone Warnings Help India’s Response to Cyclone
(about 4 hours later)
NEW DELHI — A monstrous cyclone has struck India’s eastern coastline and washed away thousands of mud homes, knocked out power and communications, and blocked many of the region’s roads. But the storm also demonstrated how much India has transformed itself in recent years. NEW DELHI — A monstrous cyclone has struck India’s eastern coastline, washing away thousands of mud homes, knocking out power and communications, and blocking many of the region’s roads. But the storm also demonstrated how much India has transformed itself in recent years.
The authorities evacuated about 800,000 people, one of the largest such evacuations in India’s history. The storm’s maximum sustained winds, which were approximately 200 kilometers, or 124 miles, per hour, when the storm made landfall about 9 p.m. Saturday, dropped to about 80 kilometers per hour by midafternoon Sunday. The authorities evacuated about 800,000 people, one of the largest such evacuations in India’s history. The storm’s maximum sustained winds, which were approximately 200 kilometers (or 124 miles) per hour when the storm made landfall about 9 p.m. Saturday, dropped to about 80 kilometers per hour by midafternoon Sunday.
There were scattered reports of deaths that together climbed past 20 by midday Sunday, including five people in the coastal city of Gopalpur. The reports said most died from tree falls in the hours before the storm landed. The cyclone, named Phailin, was expected to drop up to 25 centimeters, or 10 inches, of rain over two days in some areas. There were scattered reports of deaths that together climbed past 20 by midday Sunday, including 5 in the coastal city of Gopalpur. The reports said most died from tree falls in the hours before the storm landed. The cyclone, named Phailin, was expected to drop up to 10 inches of rain over two days in some areas.
Just 14 years ago, a cyclone in roughly the same place killed more than 10,000 people — another in more than a century of predictably deadly cyclones to roar out of the Bay of Bengal. While an accurate assessment of Phailin’s effects will probably take weeks, there were tentative signs Sunday that the death toll was likely to be relatively modest. Just 14 years ago, a cyclone in roughly the same place killed more than 10,000 people — another in more than a century of predictably deadly cyclones to roar out of the Bay of Bengal. While an accurate assessment of Phailin’s effects will probably take weeks, there were tentative signs on Sunday that the death toll was likely to be relatively modest.
There are many reasons for the change, but a vastly improved communications system is probably the most important. Nearly a billion people routinely use mobile phones in India, up from fewer than 40 million at the turn of the century. Even many of the poorest villages now have televisions, and India’s media market is saturated with 24-hour news channels that have blanketed the nation’s airwaves with coverage of the storm. There are many reasons for the change, but a vastly improved communications system is probably the most important. Nearly a billion people routinely use mobile phones in India, up from fewer than 40 million at the turn of the century. Even many of the poorest villages now have televisions, and India’s news media market is saturated with 24-hour news channels that have blanketed the nation’s airwaves with coverage of the storm.
Many villagers refused to leave land and livestock during the worst of the storm, according to many reports. But almost none were unaware of the coming danger. And that is a huge change.Many villagers refused to leave land and livestock during the worst of the storm, according to many reports. But almost none were unaware of the coming danger. And that is a huge change.
Jibanananda Mohanty, a retired veterinary surgeon from Bhubaneshwar in Odisha, said by telephone Sunday that he had spent a harrowing night listening to howling winds and crashing trees outside, and his home remained without electricity and water Sunday. But he had days to store enough water, milk, vegetables and other supplies to carry him through. Dr. Jibanananda Mohanty, a retired veterinary surgeon from Bhubaneshwar in Odisha, said by telephone on Sunday that he had spent a harrowing night listening to howling winds and crashing trees outside, and that his home remained without electricity and water. But he had days to store enough water, milk, vegetables and other supplies to carry him through.
“Because of the advanced warning, we were prepared for this situation,” Dr. Mohanty said. “I haven't heard any loss of life in my neighborhood.” “Because of the advanced warning, we were prepared for this situation,” Dr. Mohanty said. “I haven’t heard any loss of life in my neighborhood.”
India’s state and central governments spent days preparing for the worst. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said in a statement Saturday that he had been briefed on preparations for the storm and had directed that the central government extend all needed assistance to state officials. India’s state and central governments spent days preparing for the worst. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said in a statement Saturday that he had been briefed on preparations for the storm and had directed the central government to extend all needed assistance to state officials.
Service members from the country’s army, air force and navy were deployed to help in rescue and relief operations, A.K. Antony, India’s defense minister, said. Service members from the country’s army, air force and navy were deployed to help in rescue and relief operations, said A.K. Antony, India’s defense minister.
The air force deployed C-130 aircraft, recently purchased from the United States, to help in the efforts, and the navy had diving teams with inflatable rafts deployed at important locations, Mr. Antony said. Military helicopters were also available for rescues, he said. The air force deployed C-130 aircraft, recently bought from the United States, to help in the efforts, and the navy had diving teams with inflatable rafts deployed at important locations, Mr. Antony said. Military helicopters were also available for rescues, he added.
Visakhapatnam, which was near the center of the storm, experienced little damage apart from a collapsed seawall in the fishing colony. By 9 a.m., the sun was shining, businesses had opened at their usual times, and traffic had resumed its usual chaos. People emerged from their homes Sunday with a sense of relief and, in some case, an I-knew-it-all-along attitude. Visakhapatnam, which was near the center of the storm, experienced little damage apart from a collapsed seawall in the fishing colony. By 9 a.m., the sun was shining, businesses had opened at their usual times, and traffic had resumed its usual chaos. People emerged from their homes on Sunday with a sense of relief and, in some case, an I-knew-it-all-along attitude.
Tousis Ahmed, who is employed in India’s emerging technology industry, stayed out late on Saturday night and even swung by the beach, which had been cordoned off, to check on the ocean. Tousis Ahmed, 30, who is employed in India’s emerging technology industry, stayed out late on Saturday night and even swung by the beach, which had been cordoned off, to check on the ocean.
“The waves were calm. So I went home and had a sound sleep,” Mr. Ahmed, 30, said. “The waves were calm, so I went home and had a sound sleep,” Mr. Ahmed said.
B. Murkandarao, a street fruit vendor, said he stayed open for business Saturday night until his usual hour and was back in business Sunday morning. “They tried to scare us on TV, but I was never worried,” he said.B. Murkandarao, a street fruit vendor, said he stayed open for business Saturday night until his usual hour and was back in business Sunday morning. “They tried to scare us on TV, but I was never worried,” he said.
Indian storm experts may have struck the right note of caution in contrast to those in the United States, where forecasts were far more alarmist than those made in India. Indian storm experts may have struck the right note of caution in contrast to those in the United States, where forecasts were far more alarmist than those in India.
Late Friday, the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center said the storm, then barreling across the Bay of Bengal, had maximum sustained winds of 259 kilometers per hour, with gusts reaching 315 kilometers per hour, — making it similar to a Category 5 hurricane, the most severe. That was a far more alarming assessment than the one being made at the time by the India Meteorological Department. Perhaps most tellingly, India’s experts predicted a storm surge no higher than about 3.5 meters, or 11 feet, while some in the United States predicted a surge nearly twice that high. Late Friday, the United States Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center said the storm, then barreling across the Bay of Bengal, had maximum sustained winds of 259 kilometers per hour, with gusts reaching 315 kilometers per hour — making it similar to a Category 5 hurricane, the most severe. That was a far more alarming assessment than the one being made at the time by the India Meteorological Department. Perhaps most telling, India’s experts predicted a storm surge no higher than about 3.5 meters, or 11 feet, while some in the United States predicted a surge nearly twice that high.
Once the storm arrived on land, its intensity seemed more in line with Indian predictions, and Indian officials defended their more measured forecast as having been more accurate. Once the storm hit land, its intensity seemed more in line with Indian predictions, and officials there defended their more measured forecast as having been more accurate.
“We are not trying to downplay the intensity of the cyclone,” M. Shashidhar Reddy, the vice chairman of the National Disaster Management Authority, said at a news conference Saturday. “In fact, U.S. authorities are overplaying it.” “We are not trying to downplay the intensity of the cyclone,” M. Shashidhar Reddy, the vice chairman of the National Disaster Management Authority, said at a news conference on Saturday. “In fact, U.S. authorities are overplaying it.”
On Saturday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, in Hawaii, reduced its estimates, saying they showed maximum sustained winds of about 222 kilometers per hour and gusts of up to 270 kilometers per hour — still more severe than the Indian assessments at the time. On Saturday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Hawaii reduced its estimates, saying they showed maximum sustained winds of about 222 kilometers per hour and gusts of up to 270 kilometers per hour — still more severe than the Indian assessments at the time.
Powerful cyclones in the Bay of Bengal have a history of being particularly deadly because the geography funnels the storms into some of the most densely populated and poorest regions in the world. About 12 million people were in the storm’s path, according to Indian officials.Powerful cyclones in the Bay of Bengal have a history of being particularly deadly because the geography funnels the storms into some of the most densely populated and poorest regions in the world. About 12 million people were in the storm’s path, according to Indian officials.
Raja Reddy, a hotel management student from the Guntur district, finished his shift at a sports bar well past midnight on Saturday. He said he was worried for the people in Odisha and for the fishermen, but was never concerned about himself. Raja Reddy, 22, a hotel management student from the Guntur district, finished his shift at a sports bar well past midnight on Saturday. He said he was worried for the people in Odisha and for the fishermen, but was never concerned about himself.
“We had a lot of customers last night, and we kept waiting for the cyclone to come,” said Mr. Reddy, 22. “Everybody was getting calls from their families in other places, because the news was so scary yesterday. But nothing happened even late at night.” “We had a lot of customers last night, and we kept waiting for the cyclone to come,” Mr. Reddy said. “Everybody was getting calls from their families in other places, because the news was so scary yesterday. But nothing happened even late at night.”
Fishermen said that although damage and death seemed minimal, the storm had frightened them.Fishermen said that although damage and death seemed minimal, the storm had frightened them.
“The waves were 20 to 30 meters high,” said Ramu Vasuranna, a 26-year-old fisherman. “I had never seen the ocean like that.”“The waves were 20 to 30 meters high,” said Ramu Vasuranna, a 26-year-old fisherman. “I had never seen the ocean like that.”
The Bay of Bengal region is among the most vulnerable in the world to the effects of climate change, as experts have predicted that storms are likely to become more intense and the at-risk population continues to grow. So the government’s relatively effective management of Phailin represents a hopeful sign.The Bay of Bengal region is among the most vulnerable in the world to the effects of climate change, as experts have predicted that storms are likely to become more intense and the at-risk population continues to grow. So the government’s relatively effective management of Phailin represents a hopeful sign.
K. Baliah, a district official involved in rescue efforts, said coastal residents had been reluctant to leave until they saw the sea rise. “At first they refused to leave their properties,” he said. Then, “when the water started to enter their communities around 2 p.m., the people decided themselves that they must leave.”K. Baliah, a district official involved in rescue efforts, said coastal residents had been reluctant to leave until they saw the sea rise. “At first they refused to leave their properties,” he said. Then, “when the water started to enter their communities around 2 p.m., the people decided themselves that they must leave.”
A key difference between this storm and the one 14 years ago was that such late departures could be made relatively safely. A building boom across India over the past decade has resulted in the construction of countless concrete schools, government facilities, hotels and homes, so storm shelters now abound.A key difference between this storm and the one 14 years ago was that such late departures could be made relatively safely. A building boom across India over the past decade has resulted in the construction of countless concrete schools, government facilities, hotels and homes, so storm shelters now abound.
Malavika Vyawahare and Hari Kumar contributed reporting from New Delhi, and Vivekananda Nemana from Visakhapatnam.Malavika Vyawahare and Hari Kumar contributed reporting from New Delhi, and Vivekananda Nemana from Visakhapatnam.