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HS2 'losers' revealed after report omitted figures | HS2 'losers' revealed after report omitted figures |
(35 minutes later) | |
The areas that could lose out if a new north-to-south rail link is built have been revealed for the first time. | The areas that could lose out if a new north-to-south rail link is built have been revealed for the first time. |
HS2 would make more than 50 places across the UK worse off - such as Aberdeen, Bristol and Cardiff - research by KPMG suggested. | |
The government said HS2's £17bn cost is part of a £73bn package of transport improvements in the next parliament. | |
It claimed the measures would benefit areas which HS2 will not serve, long before the high-speed line opens. | |
KPMG's findings were only released in a freedom of information request passed to BBC Two's Newsnight programme. | |
HS2 Ltd's chief executive has called them "unsurprising". | HS2 Ltd's chief executive has called them "unsurprising". |
The KPMG report, which was hailed by the government when it was published in September, said the line could boost the UK economy by £15bn a year. | The KPMG report, which was hailed by the government when it was published in September, said the line could boost the UK economy by £15bn a year. |
It listed the regions it said would benefit, with Greater London (£2.8bn) and West Midlands (£1.5bn) the biggest winners. | It listed the regions it said would benefit, with Greater London (£2.8bn) and West Midlands (£1.5bn) the biggest winners. |
But the 92-page document omitted data for those parts of the UK not on the proposed line which stand to be net losers from the project. | But the 92-page document omitted data for those parts of the UK not on the proposed line which stand to be net losers from the project. |
Economic output would be worst affected, according to the research, in: | Economic output would be worst affected, according to the research, in: |
James Bream, policy director of Aberdeen's Chamber of Commerce, said it was "really disappointing" that such a huge number was left out of the original report. | James Bream, policy director of Aberdeen's Chamber of Commerce, said it was "really disappointing" that such a huge number was left out of the original report. |
He added the negative impact for the whole north-east of Scotland could be "significant to say the least." | He added the negative impact for the whole north-east of Scotland could be "significant to say the least." |
Dundee and Angus could lose as much as 2% of its annual GDP, KPMG found. | Dundee and Angus could lose as much as 2% of its annual GDP, KPMG found. |
Kettering, Suffolk West and Cambridgeshire East are all listed as zones that could see a 1% drop in GDP. | Kettering, Suffolk West and Cambridgeshire East are all listed as zones that could see a 1% drop in GDP. |
The accountants used data from HS2 Ltd's assessment of the direct transport impacts of the scheme, which would connect London to Birmingham and to Manchester and Leeds. | The accountants used data from HS2 Ltd's assessment of the direct transport impacts of the scheme, which would connect London to Birmingham and to Manchester and Leeds. |
But the Department for Transport said HS2 was vital to "rebalance the economy". | But the Department for Transport said HS2 was vital to "rebalance the economy". |
A spokesman said: "These figures show it boosts the north overall more than the south. | A spokesman said: "These figures show it boosts the north overall more than the south. |
"Of course the line does not serve every city and region and these figures reflect that." | |
The DfT say ultimately the line would reduce journey times to Edinburgh and Glasgow by an hour. | The DfT say ultimately the line would reduce journey times to Edinburgh and Glasgow by an hour. |
Professor Henry Overman from the London School of Economics - formerly an expert adviser to HS2 Ltd - told the BBC it was obvious that, as some cities, towns and regions reap the benefits of being better connected, other places away from the line will pay a price. | Professor Henry Overman from the London School of Economics - formerly an expert adviser to HS2 Ltd - told the BBC it was obvious that, as some cities, towns and regions reap the benefits of being better connected, other places away from the line will pay a price. |
"When a firm is thinking of where to locate, it thinks about the relative productivity of different places, and the relative wages etc," he said. | "When a firm is thinking of where to locate, it thinks about the relative productivity of different places, and the relative wages etc," he said. |
"HS2 shifts that around. So if you are on the line that makes you a better place that hasn't had that productivity improvement." | "HS2 shifts that around. So if you are on the line that makes you a better place that hasn't had that productivity improvement." |
'Robustness' | 'Robustness' |
But Newsnight's political correspondent David Grossman said there were "questions about the robustness" of the data. | But Newsnight's political correspondent David Grossman said there were "questions about the robustness" of the data. |
And Prof Overman added both the supposed economic benefits and negative impacts should be discounted by a factor of somewhere between four and six. | And Prof Overman added both the supposed economic benefits and negative impacts should be discounted by a factor of somewhere between four and six. |
The chief executive of HS2 Ltd, Alison Munro, said: "What this is showing is that the places that are on the high-speed network... those are the places that will benefit most from high-speed two. | The chief executive of HS2 Ltd, Alison Munro, said: "What this is showing is that the places that are on the high-speed network... those are the places that will benefit most from high-speed two. |
"But high-speed two isn't the only investment that the government is making. Over the next five years it is planning to spend £73bn on transport infrastructure." | "But high-speed two isn't the only investment that the government is making. Over the next five years it is planning to spend £73bn on transport infrastructure." |
PDF download HS2 FOI request[97kb] | PDF download HS2 FOI request[97kb] |