Drones may be Sharif's only weapon in talks with Obama

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/oct/23/drones-sharif-weapon-talks-obama

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On Wednesday, Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif meets with US President Barack Obama to discuss what has been termed a "very important" and strategic bilateral relationship. A "reset" certainly looks necessary.

The US-Pakistan relationship deteriorated sharply during 2011-2012, thanks to a series of adverse events: the Raymond Davis episode, the violation of Pakistani sovereignty for the Bin Laden raid in Abbottabad, the killing of 24 soldiers at the Salala checkpost, the blockade of Nato supply lines, and then, of course, the delay of any US apology over the original incident.

With the US withdrawing troops from Afghanistan in 2014, a need to "normalize" relations and achieve some stability in the region is imperative for both allies – the stakes are too high for both parties. So, this meeting may <em>appear</em> significant in many ways. But in Pakistan, it has failed to garner much enthusiasm.

Prime Minister Sharif holds a heavy mandate in Pakistan's National Assembly, and specifically in Punjab – Pakistan's biggest province, both in terms of size and population. (Punjan also matters because the province is the key recruiting ground for army personnel.) Despite this, Sharif has faced a wave of domestic political criticism from the moment he embarked on his US trip.

Last month, Sharif convened an "all parties conference", ostensibly to tackle the problems of militancy and terrorism in Pakistan. The APC sees talks with the Pakistani Taliban as key to any settlement, but opponents have criticized Sharif for not being serious about implementing talks with Taliban leaders and for using the APC as just a photo opportunity. True, if Sharif's motive was to demonstrate to the international community that he is a strong leader who enjoys united political support and works through consensus, that image-building may not be completely accurate.

Then, the PM's decision to visit the US State Department to meet with Secretary of State John Kerry, before his summit with President Obama, has left Pakistani diplomats and commentators in shock. To outside observers, for the Pakistani prime minister to visit the US secretary of state may seem unexceptionable, but in a country where the status and distinctions between ministerial roles matters a great deal, such a breach of protocol has led to severe opprobrium back in Pakistan. For a strategic relationship, it is essential that an implicit equality be understood from the outset; even if it is not a partnership of true equality, it matters that it is at least perceived to be so.

Criticism has also mounted over Sharif's hesitation to appoint the next army chief, leading many analysts to predict that Sharif will take orders from the US over the appointment. As a consequence, the next head of Pakistan's army may very well be perceived as America's pawn – meaning that Sharif's indecision has undermined the appointment and has paved the way for a new political disaster.

Adding fuel to the fire, the low-key restoration of $1.6bn in US military and economic aid to bolster relations and fight terrorism has raised a flurry of questions. US military assistance was halted, the State Department told Congress, after the deterioration of relations in 2011-2012. The timing now of the aid being restored – on the very day Sharif left Islamabad for Washington – has been viewed with skepticism in Pakistan. It looked to many as though the US was straightforwardly "buying off" Sharif before the talks even commenced.

But Sharif has been lucky. On the eve of his meeting with President Obama, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch issued their damning report questioning the legality of US drones attacks in Pakistan's tribal areas (and Yemen). Given how inflammatory the issue of civilian deaths as a result of the US targeted killing progam has been in Pakistan, the renewed international focus on US drone attacks has put Sharif in a stronger position than perhaps he was expecting. Though he touched on other issues like the energy crisis, economic opportunities and regional stability, Sharif used an appearance this week at the US Institute of Peace to deliver a tough message on drone attacks and the violation of Pakistan's sovereignty.

In fact, because of crippling economic conditions in Pakistan, improving bilateral relations is particularly important. For domestic consumption, Sharif may assert a stance against aid and for trade, by demanding market access. In reality, Pakistan is hardly in a position to refuse aid. It is estimated that the "war on terror" has cost Pakistan approximately $100bn in losses and economic stagnation – losses that dwarf the $68bn in aid Pakistan has received over the past seven decades.

While Sharif may push on drones, energy and the economy, it is clear that the US focus is on security, terrorism and stability following withdrawal from Afghanistan. Public outrage about the effects of the "war on terror" in Pakistan is understandable: expectations are running high that Sharif will get some tangible economic benefits from this week's diplomacy.

Animosity has defined the relationship over the past few years. With so much at stake over the 2014 US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the two countries are still at loggerheads. The meeting between President Obama and Prime Minister Sharif is seen by both as an important opportunity to renew a commitment to work together for peace and stability.

Yet, both parties are also preoccupied with pressing domestic issues – with Sharif, in particular, facing mounting criticism over the APC and US aid. The issue of drones is the one trump card in his hand.

Given the domestic pressure Sharif is under, he will have to play it well.

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