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| How Ed Miliband can continue to make the political weather | How Ed Miliband can continue to make the political weather |
| (about 9 hours later) | |
| The chancellor goes fox shooting on Thursday, aiming at Labour's energy price freeze. But he and his leader may be no better at it than they were at badger culling. Recently, Labour has looked on in amazement at the government's flat-footed, zig-zagging pursuit of Ed Miliband's conference announcement. First, David Cameron called it "Marxist", then it was "a gimmick" – but now the autumn statement limps after it in imitation. They know this is not just a policy, but a potent political symbol. | The chancellor goes fox shooting on Thursday, aiming at Labour's energy price freeze. But he and his leader may be no better at it than they were at badger culling. Recently, Labour has looked on in amazement at the government's flat-footed, zig-zagging pursuit of Ed Miliband's conference announcement. First, David Cameron called it "Marxist", then it was "a gimmick" – but now the autumn statement limps after it in imitation. They know this is not just a policy, but a potent political symbol. |
| Labour expected them to take a lofty approach, pitting their authority against a foolish populist bribe, but public opinion blew that away. YouGov shows 72% support the freeze – angered by energy companies' deliberate bamboozling: British Gas has 140 incomprehensible tariffs. Labour's fox will still be alive and kicking, since bills are rising by £130 this year, but George Osborne will only cut them by £50 – even that relies on the companies' goodwill. This year's 77% rise in profits goes untouched. | Labour expected them to take a lofty approach, pitting their authority against a foolish populist bribe, but public opinion blew that away. YouGov shows 72% support the freeze – angered by energy companies' deliberate bamboozling: British Gas has 140 incomprehensible tariffs. Labour's fox will still be alive and kicking, since bills are rising by £130 this year, but George Osborne will only cut them by £50 – even that relies on the companies' goodwill. This year's 77% rise in profits goes untouched. |
| Labour should not accept Osborne's cut in the energy efficiency obligation, (ECO), despite the current unpopularity of "green crap": YouGov shows 64% want green tax cuts. Ed Balls told Andrew Marr that cutting ECO "might be OK", but there's nothing OK about cutting insulation funding for poorer homes when lack of insulation is the cause of their high bills. MPs on the environmental audit committee just caught the government's sleight of hand in amending the energy bill to take 800,000 households off the fuel poverty count. The big energy-consuming companies are leaning hard on the chancellor to cut their bills too. "We're not going to save the planet by putting our country out of business," one fulminated on the FT's front page. | Labour should not accept Osborne's cut in the energy efficiency obligation, (ECO), despite the current unpopularity of "green crap": YouGov shows 64% want green tax cuts. Ed Balls told Andrew Marr that cutting ECO "might be OK", but there's nothing OK about cutting insulation funding for poorer homes when lack of insulation is the cause of their high bills. MPs on the environmental audit committee just caught the government's sleight of hand in amending the energy bill to take 800,000 households off the fuel poverty count. The big energy-consuming companies are leaning hard on the chancellor to cut their bills too. "We're not going to save the planet by putting our country out of business," one fulminated on the FT's front page. |
| Ed Miliband has good green credentials he should defend. If not on the climate, Labour is making the best of the political weather and their price freeze is totemic. He was once mocked for attacking "predatory" capitalism but that's how people see the energy companies now. The freeze puts Labour on the side of the "squeezed middle" for which he was equally mocked: most people feel no recovery, nor will most by the election. The ONS just found median household earnings had fallen by 6.4% – the "squeezed" middle fifth losing £1,500 a year. "The link between our nation's wealth and family finances has been broken," Miliband said yesterday. | Ed Miliband has good green credentials he should defend. If not on the climate, Labour is making the best of the political weather and their price freeze is totemic. He was once mocked for attacking "predatory" capitalism but that's how people see the energy companies now. The freeze puts Labour on the side of the "squeezed middle" for which he was equally mocked: most people feel no recovery, nor will most by the election. The ONS just found median household earnings had fallen by 6.4% – the "squeezed" middle fifth losing £1,500 a year. "The link between our nation's wealth and family finances has been broken," Miliband said yesterday. |
| Plenty of doubts about Labour remain: Lynton Crosby plans personal attacks on "weak" and "red" Ed, and on Labour's economic competence. | Plenty of doubts about Labour remain: Lynton Crosby plans personal attacks on "weak" and "red" Ed, and on Labour's economic competence. |
| As Osborne proclaims growth well above forecasts, with Treasury receipts up and employment up, he will claim austerity works, though growth only looks so steep after falling to such an unprecedented low for so long. He has been warned to keep his air-punches private, no gloating or smirking in public because it is by no means clear that GDP growth will deliver electoral victory. The price freeze U-turn saga shows how anxiously they watch Labour's poll lead. | As Osborne proclaims growth well above forecasts, with Treasury receipts up and employment up, he will claim austerity works, though growth only looks so steep after falling to such an unprecedented low for so long. He has been warned to keep his air-punches private, no gloating or smirking in public because it is by no means clear that GDP growth will deliver electoral victory. The price freeze U-turn saga shows how anxiously they watch Labour's poll lead. |
| After all, Labour won in 1997 despite John Major's three years of high growth. President Barack Obama won despite lagging behind Mitt Romney 8% on the economy and 12% on how best to cut the deficit. In the end, enough voters cared less about those abstractions than who they felt was on their side in hard times. | After all, Labour won in 1997 despite John Major's three years of high growth. President Barack Obama won despite lagging behind Mitt Romney 8% on the economy and 12% on how best to cut the deficit. In the end, enough voters cared less about those abstractions than who they felt was on their side in hard times. |
| Ipsos Mori polling for Policy Network finds most people think the recovery favours the rich, not "families like them". Most want more tax taken from those on high incomes. Most would choose higher spending on public services such as the NHS and education, not tax cuts. The political mood is shifting against Conservative ideas: people want more state, more regulation and more NHS – not the ever-shrinking public realm of Cameron, Osborne and Boris Johnson. They may not rate Miliband personally – but that may matter a lot less than the mood of the times. They don't like the EU, benefits or migrants – but that may matter less if they think Cameron runs a nasty government for its own kind. | Ipsos Mori polling for Policy Network finds most people think the recovery favours the rich, not "families like them". Most want more tax taken from those on high incomes. Most would choose higher spending on public services such as the NHS and education, not tax cuts. The political mood is shifting against Conservative ideas: people want more state, more regulation and more NHS – not the ever-shrinking public realm of Cameron, Osborne and Boris Johnson. They may not rate Miliband personally – but that may matter a lot less than the mood of the times. They don't like the EU, benefits or migrants – but that may matter less if they think Cameron runs a nasty government for its own kind. |
| Labour has surprised itself with its dominance of the political agenda. For the Conservatives, one minute interfering with payday lenders is denial of a free market, the next Cameron caves in to Labour's campaign rousing public disgust at the Wonga lenders. On Syria, it is remarkable how Miliband, an opposition leader from no obvious position of strength, managed to stop not just Britain, but also the US going to war. Otherwise, futile air strikes, followed by defiant chemical weapon use, might well be in progress, while Iran nuclear talks certainly wouldn't be. | Labour has surprised itself with its dominance of the political agenda. For the Conservatives, one minute interfering with payday lenders is denial of a free market, the next Cameron caves in to Labour's campaign rousing public disgust at the Wonga lenders. On Syria, it is remarkable how Miliband, an opposition leader from no obvious position of strength, managed to stop not just Britain, but also the US going to war. Otherwise, futile air strikes, followed by defiant chemical weapon use, might well be in progress, while Iran nuclear talks certainly wouldn't be. |
| So what next? The Labour party plans more tactical victories – but knows it can only win by keeping ahead on future cost of living questions: homes, jobs, childcare, skills and wages. The government, it thinks, has no offer for a future beyond more austerity and less state. This week Labour launches the Lyons commission to explore what's needed to build 200,000 new homes a year, forcing property developers to sell off their hoarded land. Some tricks have been missed. Labour never made the hugely unpopular Royal Mail privatisation its own – perhaps embarrassed by a similar attempt by Blair/Brown – but it will zero in on the botched sale. It should also shout louder on East Coast, the money-making state-owned rail company also to be pointlessly privatised. | So what next? The Labour party plans more tactical victories – but knows it can only win by keeping ahead on future cost of living questions: homes, jobs, childcare, skills and wages. The government, it thinks, has no offer for a future beyond more austerity and less state. This week Labour launches the Lyons commission to explore what's needed to build 200,000 new homes a year, forcing property developers to sell off their hoarded land. Some tricks have been missed. Labour never made the hugely unpopular Royal Mail privatisation its own – perhaps embarrassed by a similar attempt by Blair/Brown – but it will zero in on the botched sale. It should also shout louder on East Coast, the money-making state-owned rail company also to be pointlessly privatised. |
| Now is the time for Labour to make a lot more noise on tax avoidance. Osborne will claim a clamp-down on Thursday which the TUC exposes as puny. His general anti-avoidance rule will let 99% off the hook – Amazon, Google, npower, Starbucks and the rest. The word is that Balls is none too keen on business-bashing. But post-crash, times have changed and the public doesn't think it's Marxist to rein in bankers' pay or stop tax avoiders. Meanwhile, whatever new bungs the chancellor is panicked into, few expect the NHS to escape crisis by 2015. | Now is the time for Labour to make a lot more noise on tax avoidance. Osborne will claim a clamp-down on Thursday which the TUC exposes as puny. His general anti-avoidance rule will let 99% off the hook – Amazon, Google, npower, Starbucks and the rest. The word is that Balls is none too keen on business-bashing. But post-crash, times have changed and the public doesn't think it's Marxist to rein in bankers' pay or stop tax avoiders. Meanwhile, whatever new bungs the chancellor is panicked into, few expect the NHS to escape crisis by 2015. |
| Amusingly, No 10 justified its energy price U-turn to the FT with a version of Keynes' old saw: "When the facts change, you change your mind." What facts changed? Only the voters' mood, which seems to elude Cameron and Osborne time after time. On Thursday £2bn will be cut, including more from welfare to pay for the £50 fuel bill cut, free school meals for under-sevens (no help to the poor) and a barmy marriage tax break that goes mainly to pensioners, not families with children. Who wins, who loses? That's the calculation and Osborne's answer is always the same. | Amusingly, No 10 justified its energy price U-turn to the FT with a version of Keynes' old saw: "When the facts change, you change your mind." What facts changed? Only the voters' mood, which seems to elude Cameron and Osborne time after time. On Thursday £2bn will be cut, including more from welfare to pay for the £50 fuel bill cut, free school meals for under-sevens (no help to the poor) and a barmy marriage tax break that goes mainly to pensioners, not families with children. Who wins, who loses? That's the calculation and Osborne's answer is always the same. |
| • Polly Toynbee has replied to commenters in the thread below. Here is what she wrote: | |
| Interesting how untypical the posters here are of the country out there - on the right, the usual left-bashers - but on the left too and what sound like Russell Brandist rejectionists. But out there, Labour is some 7% to 8% ahead in the polls, and as I write today, making the weather on issues that matter most to people. What's more, they are starting to shape what a future Labour government would do - on housing, jobs and wages that looks better than anything the Tories have, as yet, said about the future - except austerity and GDP growth that goes mainly to the top 20%. Are they perfect? Absolutely not. Often drop the ball, dither, and not radical enough. Every time they do something radical, their support rises. Ed Balls seems too stuck in the New Labour pro-business pre-crash past. Ed M has the right ideas - but still often too cerebral - and hesitant. Will they disappoint in office? Of course. Labour always does, because our expectations of them are sky high: no-one expects much of Tories. Pity we don't hear more on this site from Labour supporters - but they are out there - even if not here. Possibly they have less time to waste dissing others - as both right and left gather here to do. | |
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