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Labor leads Coalition in latest Newspoll for first time since Gillard elected Labor leads Coalition in latest Newspoll by 52% to 48% two-party preferred
(about 2 hours later)
Tony Abbott's honeymoon is over as the Coalition slumped to its lowest rating in three years. The Labor opposition has opened up a 52% to 48% lead over Tony Abbott’s Coalition in a new poll that highlights the short honeymoon the new government has experienced.
Labor now leads on preferences for the first time since Julia Gillard was elected prime minister, according to a Newspoll survey taken last weekend. After a fortnight that included damaging claims of broken promises over school funding and a cloud over the future of Holden and Qantas, the latest Newspoll puts Labor at its best two-party-preferred score since March 2011.
After three months of an Abbott-led government, more voters are dissatisfied with the prime minister than satisfied, shows the Newspoll, published in the Australian on Tuesday. The Coalition’s primary vote fell three points to 40% while Labor was up three points to 38%, in a Newspoll conducted last weekend. Based on flows from the September election, this would hand Labor a 52% to 48% lead after preferences. The Australian reported that the last time the Newspoll survey put the Coalition’s primary vote at 40% was in March 2011, shortly after Julia Gillard announced plans to push ahead with carbon pricing following a committee involving the Greens and key crossbench MPs.
Labor's two-party-preferred support has jumped five percentage points to put the ALP in front 52% to 48%. At the 7 September election, the Coalition secured about 53.5% of the vote after preferences compared with Labor’s 46.5%.
The Coalition's primary vote fell three percentage points to 40%, while Labor's rose three points to 38%. Labor figures responded cautiously to the Newspoll bounce, pointing out the next election is due in nearly three years.
The Australian says Labor's primary vote is back to the level it was in July, just after Kevin Rudd replaced Gillard as prime minister. The poll comes as the Productivity Commission conducts a crucial hearing into the future of the car industry amid speculation about Holden’s imminent exit from Australia.
Fronting a hearing in Melbourne on Tuesday, Holden general manager Mike Devereux insisted the company was yet to make a decision on its Australian operations and would not give a timeframe. Its general philosophy was to build where it sold its cars, he said.
The prime minister has indicated there is no extra government funding available to Holden and has called on the company to clearly outline its intentions.
Abbott, who is currently overseas with the opposition leader, Bill Shorten to attend the Nelson Mandela memorial, remains preferred prime minister, with 41% favouring him, down three points since the last Newspoll survey. Shorten rose one point to 34%.
But Abbott’s net satisfaction rating has dropped into negative territory for the first time since he because prime minister. The poll shows satisfaction with Abbott dropped two points to 40% in the past two weeks, or a drop of seven points since the end of October. Dissatisfaction with Abbott rose three points to 45% in the past two weeks, a rise of 11% since October. The satisfaction rating minus the dissatisfaction rating produces a net score of -5.
Shorten’s satisfaction rating of 44% and dissatisfaction rating of 27% produces a net score of +17.
During the past fortnight, Abbott was accused of breaking his election promises to match Labor on school funding, prompting the government to pledge to reinstate the full $1.2bn originally earmarked for Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory, which did not sign up to the Gonski reforms before the election. He has also voiced his frustration at Labor and Green efforts to block the full repeal of carbon pricing in the Senate.
Newspoll’s chief executive, Martin O'Shannessy, said new governments generally enjoy a longer honeymoon period “and the crash isn’t so hard shortly after the election”. O’Shannessy said Abbott had faced several serious issues, including responding to revelations of Australia’s past spying on the Indonesia president.
“I imagine Tony Abbott’s feeling a bit like the English cricket captain – high expectations but a pretty disappointing start to the summer,” O’Shannessy told Sky News.
South Australian Liberal senator Simon Birmingham attacked Labor for standing in the way of the carbon tax repeal. He welcomed news Holden had not yet made a decision on leaving Australia and urged the company to wait until the Productivity Commission had finished its inquiry on industry assistance. Birmingham said the government was not focused on polls because it had a tough job on its hands.
The Labor senate leader, Penny Wong, condemned senior Coalition figures for providing “destructive” commentary to the media, saying they were championing the cause of Holden’s closure in Australia.
“They’re a very different government to the one they said they’d be before the election,” Wong told Sky News on Tuesday.
Wong said this view was reflected in the Newspoll result, although she cautioned that the opposition had “a long way to go” given the next election was nearly three years away. Labor was determined to hold the government to account, she added.
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