Gulf widens as Iran returns from cold

http://www.theguardian.com/world/on-the-middle-east/2013/dec/12/iran-saudi-gulf-gcc-oman

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It is the role of Arab summits - like all summits - to issue quotable platitudes on the great issues of the day: so it was at this week's get-together of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Kuwait, with predictable expressions of dismay about what it called the ongoing "genocide" in Syria and — more interestingly — a guarded welcome for the "new orientation" of Iran's leadership and the recent Geneva agreement on its nuclear programme.

Initial reactions to Geneva were cautious. Saudi Arabia took noticeably longer than the five other GCC states to respond. Riyadh's view was that the deal could mark the first step towards a comprehensive solution for Iran's nuclear programme "if there are good intentions". Its doubts were evident. Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE have all sounded a bit warmer — the UAE in particular hoping for a settlement of its long-standing dispute with Iran over three small islands in the Gulf. Bahrain, which regularly accuses Tehran of seeking to subvert its own restive Shia population, has been cool as well.

But Oman, at the mouth of the Gulf, has been the wild card. It annoyed the Saudis by hosting secret nuclear talks between the Americans and Iranians before the public denouement in Geneva on November 24. And in advance of this week's summit it publicly distanced itself from a call by the Saudis for closer GCC integration.

Riyadh is having a bout of uncharacteristically high-profile and hyperactive diplomacy — motivated by genuine anger at Barack Obama's policies over both Syria and Iran and a (probably exaggerated) sense that the 60-year era of US commitment to defend the Gulf and its oil fields is drawing to an end. Oman's remarkably defiant position was a bit like Belgium standing up to Germany in the EU - one small state taking a stand against the express wishes of the overwhelmingly dominant member of the club.

Oman, traditionally neutral, stayed out of the Saudi-led but GCC-backed intervention in Bahrain in March 2011. Its ethnic and religious makeup and traditionally close relations with Iran, argues the dissident Saudi historian Madawi Al Rasheed, means that "it cannot afford to back any Gulf unity project that may appear to be directed against Iran and may have serious impacts on its internal affairs."

The context is that the Saudis are squaring up to confront Iran as it takes its first steps in from the cold after 30 years of isolation and a decade of sanctions. It is worth remembering that the GCC was founded in 1981, two years after Iran's Islamic revolution and a year after the start of Sadam Hussein's war against it. It's also relevant that Saud al-Faisal, the current Saudi foreign minister, has been in his job since 1975, when the shah was still sitting securely on his Peacock throne and acting as the west's willing gendarme in the Gulf.

It will be fascinating to see how the Iranians and Saudis behave - and interact - if both accept the UN's invitation to attend next month's Geneva II peace conference on Syria, where they respectively back Bashar al-Assad and the (increasingly Islamist) armed opposition that is fighting to overthrow him. If Syria is in part a proxy war, these countries are the main foreign protagonists. (Damascus, not surprisingly, accused the GCC of peddling "lies and delusions," encouraging the shedding of Syrian blood, and "weeping crocodile tears over the agonies of the Syrian people.")

Expectations about Gulf integration are generally low even without the recent tensions, so there was some surprise at the Kuwait summit's somewhat vague agreement to create a new joint GCC military command. Quite how far it will develop remains to be seen. But in the current climate it looks likely to fall short of Saudi ambitions to create a more powerful regional bloc to face an uncertain future.

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