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| Grasping for Clues in North Korean Execution | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| SEOUL, South Korea — As he was confessing to crimes that would lead to his execution, the doomed uncle of North Korea’s leader suggested that he hoped the country’s many economic woes would drive the military to overthrow the Kim dynasty, the state-run news agency said. | SEOUL, South Korea — As he was confessing to crimes that would lead to his execution, the doomed uncle of North Korea’s leader suggested that he hoped the country’s many economic woes would drive the military to overthrow the Kim dynasty, the state-run news agency said. |
| The statement, if true, was shocking for a country that normally hides any hint of disloyalty, has not publicized a coup attempt in decades and has not released a detailed explanation of a purge to its people — much less to the world. But even if the uncle, Jang Song-thaek, did not utter such treason, the laundry list of alleged crimes the North Koreans published is notable for its admission of instability in the hermetic nation and suggests that at least some see flaws in its debilitated state-run economy. | The statement, if true, was shocking for a country that normally hides any hint of disloyalty, has not publicized a coup attempt in decades and has not released a detailed explanation of a purge to its people — much less to the world. But even if the uncle, Jang Song-thaek, did not utter such treason, the laundry list of alleged crimes the North Koreans published is notable for its admission of instability in the hermetic nation and suggests that at least some see flaws in its debilitated state-run economy. |
| “I was going to stage the coup by using army officers who had close ties with me or by mobilizing armed forces under the control of my confidants,” the North’s Korean Central News Agency on Friday quoted Mr. Jang as having said during his court-martial. “I thought the army might join in the coup if the living of the people and service personnel further deteriorate in the future.” | “I was going to stage the coup by using army officers who had close ties with me or by mobilizing armed forces under the control of my confidants,” the North’s Korean Central News Agency on Friday quoted Mr. Jang as having said during his court-martial. “I thought the army might join in the coup if the living of the people and service personnel further deteriorate in the future.” |
| As analysts scrambled Friday to make sense of the execution — many had doubted that the leader, Kim Jong-un, would kill a relative — and the highly unusual way the news rolled out, they advanced myriad theories for why Mr. Kim killed the man who was supposed to be his mentor. The biggest divide was whether the purge suggested Mr. Kim had fully taken charge of his country two years after his father’s death or, instead, was severely weakened by the reported betrayal. | As analysts scrambled Friday to make sense of the execution — many had doubted that the leader, Kim Jong-un, would kill a relative — and the highly unusual way the news rolled out, they advanced myriad theories for why Mr. Kim killed the man who was supposed to be his mentor. The biggest divide was whether the purge suggested Mr. Kim had fully taken charge of his country two years after his father’s death or, instead, was severely weakened by the reported betrayal. |
| Most officials and experts cautioned that the opaque inner-workings of the North Korean government were notoriously hard to analyze. Still, many of them said the demise of Mr. Jang, considered a champion of Chinese-style economic reform, could set back such efforts. And they said that nuclear-armed North Korea appeared to be mired in an intense power struggle over economic and other policies that could become bloodier if Mr. Kim turns his ire on those referred to in the North Korean report as Mr. Jang’s “followers.” | Most officials and experts cautioned that the opaque inner-workings of the North Korean government were notoriously hard to analyze. Still, many of them said the demise of Mr. Jang, considered a champion of Chinese-style economic reform, could set back such efforts. And they said that nuclear-armed North Korea appeared to be mired in an intense power struggle over economic and other policies that could become bloodier if Mr. Kim turns his ire on those referred to in the North Korean report as Mr. Jang’s “followers.” |
| “If Kim Jong-un was sure of his control of power, he would not have needed to execute his uncle,” said Lee Byong-chul, a senior fellow at the Institute for Peace and Cooperation in Seoul. “There will be big and small bloody purges, and at a time like this, desperate extremists may lash out. Pyongyang is no longer safe.” | “If Kim Jong-un was sure of his control of power, he would not have needed to execute his uncle,” said Lee Byong-chul, a senior fellow at the Institute for Peace and Cooperation in Seoul. “There will be big and small bloody purges, and at a time like this, desperate extremists may lash out. Pyongyang is no longer safe.” |
| On Friday, North Korea hinted at such retaliation by condemning “undesirable and alien elements” in “important posts of the party and state,” in “ministries and national institutions,” and in agencies dealing with foreign trade. It also indicated that a purge might reach the North’s powerful military and the secret police, saying that Mr. Jang had worked to “stretch his tentacles even to the People’s Army.” | |
| Mr. Jang, 67, was executed Thursday immediately after being convicted of treason, North Korea said. Suh Sang-kee, a governing party lawmaker in Seoul, quoted South Korean intelligence officials as saying that he was likely killed by a machine-gun firing squad. | Mr. Jang, 67, was executed Thursday immediately after being convicted of treason, North Korea said. Suh Sang-kee, a governing party lawmaker in Seoul, quoted South Korean intelligence officials as saying that he was likely killed by a machine-gun firing squad. |
| According to the North Korean state news agency, Mr. Jang had built a “little kingdom” of his own in the ruling Worker’s Party. Mr. Jang dreamed of first becoming premier “when the economy goes totally bankrupt,” then solving “the problem of people’s living at a certain level” by spending an enormous amount of funds he had stashed away, the report said. | According to the North Korean state news agency, Mr. Jang had built a “little kingdom” of his own in the ruling Worker’s Party. Mr. Jang dreamed of first becoming premier “when the economy goes totally bankrupt,” then solving “the problem of people’s living at a certain level” by spending an enormous amount of funds he had stashed away, the report said. |
| “Jang dreamed such a foolish dream that once he seizes power by a base method, his despicable true colors as ‘reformist’ known to the outside world would help his ‘new government’ get ‘recognized’ by foreign countries in a short span of time,” it said. | “Jang dreamed such a foolish dream that once he seizes power by a base method, his despicable true colors as ‘reformist’ known to the outside world would help his ‘new government’ get ‘recognized’ by foreign countries in a short span of time,” it said. |
| The state-directed economy has been falling apart for years, especially since the Soviet Union collapsed and stopped propping it up with subsidized fuel and other aid. Mr. Jang was considered a force behind new efforts to open up special economic zones that would give preferential treatment for Chinese and other investors. | The state-directed economy has been falling apart for years, especially since the Soviet Union collapsed and stopped propping it up with subsidized fuel and other aid. Mr. Jang was considered a force behind new efforts to open up special economic zones that would give preferential treatment for Chinese and other investors. |
| Some experts say Mr. Kim, or hard-liners influencing him, might have worried about giving away too much to China, even though the country is the North’s benefactor, or about Mr. Jang and his allies cashing in on the growing trade with China; Mr. Kim has indirectly criticized selling North Korean minerals too cheaply to China. | Some experts say Mr. Kim, or hard-liners influencing him, might have worried about giving away too much to China, even though the country is the North’s benefactor, or about Mr. Jang and his allies cashing in on the growing trade with China; Mr. Kim has indirectly criticized selling North Korean minerals too cheaply to China. |
| Analysts said it was possible for the North to have faked or exaggerated the charges against Mr. Jang to keep him from posing a challenge to Mr. Kim’s power. But they also noted how unusual it was for the ruling family to pull back the curtain on its machinations. | Analysts said it was possible for the North to have faked or exaggerated the charges against Mr. Jang to keep him from posing a challenge to Mr. Kim’s power. But they also noted how unusual it was for the ruling family to pull back the curtain on its machinations. |
| “Although high-ranking leaders, including members of the Kim family, have been deposed before, we haven’t seen anything this public or dramatic since Kim Jong-un’s grandfather Kim Il-sung purged his last major rivals in the late 1950s,” said Prof. Charles K. Armstrong, a North Korea expert at Columbia University and the author of “Tyranny of the Weak: North Korea and the World, 1950-1992.” | |
| “This seems to indicate the divisions within the Kim regime were more serious than previously thought,” Professor Armstrong said. | “This seems to indicate the divisions within the Kim regime were more serious than previously thought,” Professor Armstrong said. |
| Kim Yong-hyun, a North Korea expert at Dongguk University in Seoul, said the 30-year-old Mr. Kim had declared an end to his father’s era with the execution. “And he did it with a bang, sort of a shock therapy against anyone who still might have doubts about his authority. The speedy way he did it actually shows his daring and confidence.” | Kim Yong-hyun, a North Korea expert at Dongguk University in Seoul, said the 30-year-old Mr. Kim had declared an end to his father’s era with the execution. “And he did it with a bang, sort of a shock therapy against anyone who still might have doubts about his authority. The speedy way he did it actually shows his daring and confidence.” |
| But other analysts had lingering questions about who was running the country behind Mr. Kim. | But other analysts had lingering questions about who was running the country behind Mr. Kim. |
| Mr. Jang “was the Kim family regime’s No. 1 revenue generator,” said John S. Park, a Northeast Asia security specialist at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, adding that that revenue “went directly into Kim family slush funds.” | Mr. Jang “was the Kim family regime’s No. 1 revenue generator,” said John S. Park, a Northeast Asia security specialist at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, adding that that revenue “went directly into Kim family slush funds.” |
| Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University, said Mr. Jang was “the only one in the North who could talk about economic change.” | Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University, said Mr. Jang was “the only one in the North who could talk about economic change.” |
| “So, when I heard of Mr. Jang’s execution, my first thought was that it was a death notice for those of us who have hoped for economic reform in the North.” | “So, when I heard of Mr. Jang’s execution, my first thought was that it was a death notice for those of us who have hoped for economic reform in the North.” |