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Germany awaits ballot verdict on grand coalition Germany awaits ballot verdict on grand coalition
(35 minutes later)
Three months of political deadlock in Germany could come to an end on Saturday evening when the Social Democratic party will announce the result of a ballot of its members on entering a coalition with Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats.Three months of political deadlock in Germany could come to an end on Saturday evening when the Social Democratic party will announce the result of a ballot of its members on entering a coalition with Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats.
If party members vote in favour of a "grand coalition", the ballot will be remembered as a bold, high-risk experiment in direct democracy. A no vote, however, could tip Germany – and with it the eurozone – into turmoil.If party members vote in favour of a "grand coalition", the ballot will be remembered as a bold, high-risk experiment in direct democracy. A no vote, however, could tip Germany – and with it the eurozone – into turmoil.
The SPD's 470,000 members had until Thursday night to post their ballot paper, and it is widely expected that the majority of votes are positive. According to a poll for the ZDF television channel, 80% of party members expect a grand coalition to happen.The SPD's 470,000 members had until Thursday night to post their ballot paper, and it is widely expected that the majority of votes are positive. According to a poll for the ZDF television channel, 80% of party members expect a grand coalition to happen.
But the outcome is by no means certain: the SPD's youth organisation, which accounts for 55,000 members, has passionately opposed the deal, and influential party members such as the authors Günter Grass and Bernhard Schlink have written articles urging a no vote. Many worry that the party is losing its leftwing credentials and will punished by voters at the next election, as it was after the last grand coalition in 2009. But the outcome is by no means certain: the SPD's youth organisation, which accounts for 55,000 members, has passionately opposed the deal, and influential party members such as the authors Günter Grass and Bernhard Schlink have written articles urging a no vote. Many worry that the party is losing its leftwing credentials and will be punished by voters at the next election, as it was after the last grand coalition in 2009.
If all goes well, the coalition agreement will be signed on Monday, Merkel will be sworn in as chancellor on Tuesday and will make a speech in the Bundestag on Wednesday. If the coalition treaty is voted down, however, it would lead to nothing short of a national crisis.If all goes well, the coalition agreement will be signed on Monday, Merkel will be sworn in as chancellor on Tuesday and will make a speech in the Bundestag on Wednesday. If the coalition treaty is voted down, however, it would lead to nothing short of a national crisis.
Negotiations on the future of the eurozone, already effectively in limbo since the start of the election campaign, would be further stalled. Borrowing rates for Spain and Italy would probably go up. And there would be only an interim chancellor to attend the EU summit in Brussels on Thursday.Negotiations on the future of the eurozone, already effectively in limbo since the start of the election campaign, would be further stalled. Borrowing rates for Spain and Italy would probably go up. And there would be only an interim chancellor to attend the EU summit in Brussels on Thursday.
The SPD party leaders Sigmar Gabriel and Andrea Nahles would be expected to resign, and Merkel would go back to trying to coax the Green party into a coalition. If that failed, the president would call new elections.The SPD party leaders Sigmar Gabriel and Andrea Nahles would be expected to resign, and Merkel would go back to trying to coax the Green party into a coalition. If that failed, the president would call new elections.
Yet over the last few weeks many Social Democrats have begun grudgingly to admire Gabriel's decision to put the coalition agreement to the vote, according to Michael Miebach, deputy director of the Progressives Zentrum thinktank.Yet over the last few weeks many Social Democrats have begun grudgingly to admire Gabriel's decision to put the coalition agreement to the vote, according to Michael Miebach, deputy director of the Progressives Zentrum thinktank.
"It looks more and more like an ingenious chess move that solves several problems at once. Instead of debating the disastrous election result or even the detail of the coalition deal, everyone's talking about the ballot," Miebach said. "It will keep in check party rebels who complain that they weren't asked, and it has proved a useful tool during the negotiations with Merkel. But of course, it could still all end in disaster.""It looks more and more like an ingenious chess move that solves several problems at once. Instead of debating the disastrous election result or even the detail of the coalition deal, everyone's talking about the ballot," Miebach said. "It will keep in check party rebels who complain that they weren't asked, and it has proved a useful tool during the negotiations with Merkel. But of course, it could still all end in disaster."
Many in Germany have criticised the SPD leadership for "moving political decision-making outside of parliament", as Die Welt put it. The CDU politician Wolfgang Bosbach said calls for more direct democracy were "highly popular" but also "highly problematic", because they could strengthen populist tendencies.Many in Germany have criticised the SPD leadership for "moving political decision-making outside of parliament", as Die Welt put it. The CDU politician Wolfgang Bosbach said calls for more direct democracy were "highly popular" but also "highly problematic", because they could strengthen populist tendencies.
But membership ballots and referendums are becoming increasingly common in Germany. The Social Democrats have found an unlikely ally in the CSU, the Bavarian sister party of the CDU, which has been lobbying for party ballots on key policies. Its leader, Horst Seehofer, argued that banning ballots would be disastrous since "then we'd have even fewer people deciding over the fate of German democracy".But membership ballots and referendums are becoming increasingly common in Germany. The Social Democrats have found an unlikely ally in the CSU, the Bavarian sister party of the CDU, which has been lobbying for party ballots on key policies. Its leader, Horst Seehofer, argued that banning ballots would be disastrous since "then we'd have even fewer people deciding over the fate of German democracy".
In recent years there have been local referendums on the Winter Olympics in Munich, on a train station extension in Stuttgart and on renationalising the energy grid in Berlin and Hamburg. A negative result on Saturday could still the appetite for more direct democracy; a positive outcome could increase the hunger for more.In recent years there have been local referendums on the Winter Olympics in Munich, on a train station extension in Stuttgart and on renationalising the energy grid in Berlin and Hamburg. A negative result on Saturday could still the appetite for more direct democracy; a positive outcome could increase the hunger for more.
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