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| Putin Is Expected to Offer Ukraine a Financial Lifeline | Putin Is Expected to Offer Ukraine a Financial Lifeline |
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| KIEV, Ukraine — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is likely to offer some form of desperately needed financial assistance to Ukraine when he meets on Tuesday in Moscow with the country’s embattled president, Viktor F. Yanukovich, according to officials in Russia and Ukraine, as well as leaders of the antigovernment protest movement here. | KIEV, Ukraine — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is likely to offer some form of desperately needed financial assistance to Ukraine when he meets on Tuesday in Moscow with the country’s embattled president, Viktor F. Yanukovich, according to officials in Russia and Ukraine, as well as leaders of the antigovernment protest movement here. |
| In statements that seemed aimed at avoiding further antagonism of the thousands of protesters who remain camped on the streets here, officials in Kiev and Moscow emphasized that the possibility of Ukraine joining Russia’s customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan would not be discussed at the meeting. | |
| At the same time, the increasing likelihood that Russia, not the West, would bolster Ukraine, which is facing a severe economic crisis, was being viewed as a potentially significant turning point in the now more than three-week-old civil uprising here. | At the same time, the increasing likelihood that Russia, not the West, would bolster Ukraine, which is facing a severe economic crisis, was being viewed as a potentially significant turning point in the now more than three-week-old civil uprising here. |
| While injecting any money into the country would be risky given the current political chaos, it would allow Russia to claim victory in its tug of war with Europe for influence over Ukraine. And by not requiring Mr. Yanukovich to publicly commit to the customs union — essentially a free-trade zone across a large section of the former Soviet Union — Mr. Putin could reinforce his claim that Europe, not Russia, was putting unfair pressure on Ukraine. | While injecting any money into the country would be risky given the current political chaos, it would allow Russia to claim victory in its tug of war with Europe for influence over Ukraine. And by not requiring Mr. Yanukovich to publicly commit to the customs union — essentially a free-trade zone across a large section of the former Soviet Union — Mr. Putin could reinforce his claim that Europe, not Russia, was putting unfair pressure on Ukraine. |
| Protest leaders and some members of Parliament said they expected that any offer of Russian assistance would most likely be accompanied by major changes at the highest levels of the Ukrainian government, possibly including the dismissal of four or more cabinet ministers. | Protest leaders and some members of Parliament said they expected that any offer of Russian assistance would most likely be accompanied by major changes at the highest levels of the Ukrainian government, possibly including the dismissal of four or more cabinet ministers. |
| While those ministers would almost certainly be replaced by others loyal to Mr. Yanukovich, the changes could sap energy from the protest movement by making it seem as if the demonstrators had achieved their goal of ousting cabinet members, especially those responsible for recent police violence. | While those ministers would almost certainly be replaced by others loyal to Mr. Yanukovich, the changes could sap energy from the protest movement by making it seem as if the demonstrators had achieved their goal of ousting cabinet members, especially those responsible for recent police violence. |
| “The scenario is true,” said Viktoria Syumar, a civic activist and one of the organizers of the protest movement. | “The scenario is true,” said Viktoria Syumar, a civic activist and one of the organizers of the protest movement. |
| “So be it. The square will not disperse, but there will be less support in Kiev,” she said, referring to Independence Square, the site of protests. “The opposition will lose support.” | “So be it. The square will not disperse, but there will be less support in Kiev,” she said, referring to Independence Square, the site of protests. “The opposition will lose support.” |
| A senior economic aide to Mr. Putin, Andrei Belousov, also indicated on Monday that Russia was prepared to throw Ukraine a financial lifeline. Inevitably, that will raise questions about what the Kremlin ultimately expects in return. | A senior economic aide to Mr. Putin, Andrei Belousov, also indicated on Monday that Russia was prepared to throw Ukraine a financial lifeline. Inevitably, that will raise questions about what the Kremlin ultimately expects in return. |
| “The situation in Ukraine right now is such that without the provision of some sort of loans from someone or other they simply won’t be able to maintain economic stability,” Mr. Belousov told the Interfax news agency in Moscow. “I don’t rule out that a loan will be extended if there is such a request,” he said. | “The situation in Ukraine right now is such that without the provision of some sort of loans from someone or other they simply won’t be able to maintain economic stability,” Mr. Belousov told the Interfax news agency in Moscow. “I don’t rule out that a loan will be extended if there is such a request,” he said. |
| Protest leaders in Ukraine have called for a major rally again in Kiev on Tuesday as a sort of vigil against Mr. Yanukovich cutting a secret deal with Russia. | Protest leaders in Ukraine have called for a major rally again in Kiev on Tuesday as a sort of vigil against Mr. Yanukovich cutting a secret deal with Russia. |
| Ever since Mr. Yanukovich balked at signing far-reaching political and free trade agreements with the European Union last month, demonstrators have expressed fear that he would join the customs union, increasing Russia’s leverage over Ukraine and precluding for the foreseeable future any possibility of reviving the accords with Europe. | Ever since Mr. Yanukovich balked at signing far-reaching political and free trade agreements with the European Union last month, demonstrators have expressed fear that he would join the customs union, increasing Russia’s leverage over Ukraine and precluding for the foreseeable future any possibility of reviving the accords with Europe. |
| In recent months, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia have committed to joining the customs union, which would allow goods to cross borders without clearing customs and permit citizens of a member country to work legally in the territory of any other member. | In recent months, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia have committed to joining the customs union, which would allow goods to cross borders without clearing customs and permit citizens of a member country to work legally in the territory of any other member. |
| Armenia had been in negotiations with the European Union, but after a meeting with Mr. Putin in Moscow in September, the Armenian president, Serzh Sargsyan, abruptly announced that his country would join with Russia instead. | Armenia had been in negotiations with the European Union, but after a meeting with Mr. Putin in Moscow in September, the Armenian president, Serzh Sargsyan, abruptly announced that his country would join with Russia instead. |
| While Ukraine’s economic crisis has grown more severe, talks with the International Monetary Fund broke off weeks ago. And though Western officials have said they still hope to help Ukraine, Mr. Yanukovich has focused his efforts on seeking aid from Russia. | While Ukraine’s economic crisis has grown more severe, talks with the International Monetary Fund broke off weeks ago. And though Western officials have said they still hope to help Ukraine, Mr. Yanukovich has focused his efforts on seeking aid from Russia. |
| A meeting this month between Mr. Yanukovich and Mr. Putin in the Russian Black Sea resort city of Sochi, where the Winter Olympics will be held early in the new year, animated the protesters here with rumors of secret deals on joining the customs union. | A meeting this month between Mr. Yanukovich and Mr. Putin in the Russian Black Sea resort city of Sochi, where the Winter Olympics will be held early in the new year, animated the protesters here with rumors of secret deals on joining the customs union. |
| Officials in each country denied those rumors, and on Monday, Russia’s minister of economic development issued yet another categorical denial that the customs union would be discussed on Tuesday. | Officials in each country denied those rumors, and on Monday, Russia’s minister of economic development issued yet another categorical denial that the customs union would be discussed on Tuesday. |
| Asked at a news conference if Ukraine’s possible entry into the customs union group would be discussed, the minister, Aleksei Ulyukayev, replied: “No. We have already said that is a big and difficult job.” | Asked at a news conference if Ukraine’s possible entry into the customs union group would be discussed, the minister, Aleksei Ulyukayev, replied: “No. We have already said that is a big and difficult job.” |
| Any assistance from Russia, however, will inevitably raise questions and suspicious about what the Kremlin ultimately will receive in return. | Any assistance from Russia, however, will inevitably raise questions and suspicious about what the Kremlin ultimately will receive in return. |