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Russian bailout masks Ukraine's economic mess | Russian bailout masks Ukraine's economic mess |
(about 1 hour later) | |
There is no shortage of grim data that could illustrate Ukraine's troubled economic condition. | There is no shortage of grim data that could illustrate Ukraine's troubled economic condition. |
But perhaps the most damaging statistic is to do with gas prices. | But perhaps the most damaging statistic is to do with gas prices. |
Ukrainian consumers pay approximately 20% of the wholesale price of gas, leaving the state with a huge bill and destabilising the state-run energy monopoly Naftogaz Ukrainyi. | Ukrainian consumers pay approximately 20% of the wholesale price of gas, leaving the state with a huge bill and destabilising the state-run energy monopoly Naftogaz Ukrainyi. |
Poor deal | Poor deal |
Successive governments have been unwilling to upset voters by raising the price of gas, which has contributed to the government's strained financial position. | |
To make matters worse Ukraine has struggled to negotiate favourable deals with its main gas supplier - Russia. | |
Back in 2009 the government signed a 10-year deal with Russia that has been described as "disastrous" as it saw Ukraine pay much more than European nations for gas. | Back in 2009 the government signed a 10-year deal with Russia that has been described as "disastrous" as it saw Ukraine pay much more than European nations for gas. |
Although Ukraine has negotiated a discount since then, gas imports have caused other economic problems. | Although Ukraine has negotiated a discount since then, gas imports have caused other economic problems. |
To help pay for the gas, Ukraine's central bank has been propping up the Ukrainian currency the hryvnia. | To help pay for the gas, Ukraine's central bank has been propping up the Ukrainian currency the hryvnia. |
Reports say the central bank has recently spent around $800m defending the currency, which has helped deplete the nation's foreign currency reserves. | |
The expense of propping up the currency and subsidising gas has made international investors reluctant to lend money to Ukraine. | The expense of propping up the currency and subsidising gas has made international investors reluctant to lend money to Ukraine. |
To borrow money on the international markets, Ukraine was facing interest payments of more than 8%, which is extremely high for a national government. | To borrow money on the international markets, Ukraine was facing interest payments of more than 8%, which is extremely high for a national government. |
Financial crunch | Financial crunch |
But Ukraine needed fresh funding. | But Ukraine needed fresh funding. |
Next year it has to refinance around $7bn worth of foreign debt and almost $3bn of that was owed to the International Monetary Fund. | Next year it has to refinance around $7bn worth of foreign debt and almost $3bn of that was owed to the International Monetary Fund. |
That pressure meant Ukraine's President Viktor Yanukovich badly needed the $15bn of financing from Russia. | That pressure meant Ukraine's President Viktor Yanukovich badly needed the $15bn of financing from Russia. |
And in the short term the financing from Russia will prevent the nation heading for default. | And in the short term the financing from Russia will prevent the nation heading for default. |
But it will not fix Ukraine's deeper economic problems. | But it will not fix Ukraine's deeper economic problems. |
Lilit Gevorgyan Senior Economist at IHS Global Insight says Ukraine has suffered from a "toxic combination" of poor economic policy making and a slump in demand for its exports of steel and capital goods, like industrial machinery. | Lilit Gevorgyan Senior Economist at IHS Global Insight says Ukraine has suffered from a "toxic combination" of poor economic policy making and a slump in demand for its exports of steel and capital goods, like industrial machinery. |
As mentioned above the nation's currency is kept artificially high to help pay for imports, including gas, as well as keeping foreign debt servicing low. | As mentioned above the nation's currency is kept artificially high to help pay for imports, including gas, as well as keeping foreign debt servicing low. |
But that has made Ukraine's exports much less competitive on the international markets. Ukraine is a big exporter of steel and machinery but those exports have slumped, partly because of the strong currency, but also weak demand from customers in Europe. | But that has made Ukraine's exports much less competitive on the international markets. Ukraine is a big exporter of steel and machinery but those exports have slumped, partly because of the strong currency, but also weak demand from customers in Europe. |
Ms Gevorgyan says that since Orange Revolution of 2004 governments have failed to take tough decisions that would stabilise the economy. | Ms Gevorgyan says that since Orange Revolution of 2004 governments have failed to take tough decisions that would stabilise the economy. |
And that stabilisation is sorely needed as the economy has been in recession for more than a year. | And that stabilisation is sorely needed as the economy has been in recession for more than a year. |
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