Brazil's bolsa familia scheme: political tool or social welfare success?

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/dec/19/brazil-bolsa-familia-political-tool-social-welfare

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Vote buying is a common practice in Brazil's north-eastern state of Maranhão, which has been run as a fiefdom by a handful of privileged families for as long as anyone can remember.

The going rate these days is about 200 reais (£52) a family, paid shortly before election day in the form of bus tickets, medicine or cash. The sum is just enough to be attractive, but nowhere near sufficient to make a difference to people's lives. For the rich landowning families in the poorest of Brazilian states, this is the cost of the status quo.

That such a system of patronage continues to flourish in Brazil is partly due to the country's federal structure, which gives considerable power and autonomy to state governors. Even though the national government and constitution theoretically guarantee rights and payments to all citizens, the reality is these benefits go only as far as local power brokers permit.

Bolsa familia – a system of poverty relief paid directly from the state to the people – was supposed to challenge that. Launched by president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2003, it was almost as much a political strategy as a social and economic tool. For Lula's Workers' Party (known by its Portuguese initials, PT), bolsa familia was a means to appeal to voters outside urban centres and bypass – or, even better, undermine – conservative regional bosses.

In the 10 years since, it has proved a staggeringly successful campaign weapon. But when it comes to reducing inequality or changing the balance of power in the country's poorest regions, the results are less impressive.

Bolsa familia payments of 70 reais a month per person have prompted many people to switch political allegiance – at least during presidential elections.

In Rio Dois Paus, a small village in the centre of Maranhão, locals says they now support Lula and his successor as Workers' Party leader, Dilma Rousseff.

"Bolsa familia has a big electoral impact. Lula, who started the programme, and Dilma, who continued it, get so many votes," said Laura Viana Barros, a grain seller. "Before bolsa familia started, I would never have voted for the PT, but Lula made a big difference to our lives with these payments and Dilma has continued them. I think they have been great presidents."

It is a similar story nationwide. Since bolsa familia began 10 years ago, it has expanded to cover almost a quarter of the population. In the same period, the Workers' Party has won both presidential elections and looks set for a third next year, with Rousseff leading the polls comfortably ahead of the October vote.

Often criticised for making the poor dependent on handouts, the system also seems to have made politicians reliant on bolsa familia.

Although the Brazilian economy has slowed, the programme is now so influential that even conservative candidates are thought unlikely to be talking of European-style austerity cuts to the system.

"In the presidential election, no candidate will criticise bolsa familia. It's very, very important politically because 14 million families are recipients. So all the candidates are likely to promise they will make it bigger and bigger," said Maria Ozaniro da Silva of the Federal University of Maranhão, one of the country's leading experts on the bolsa familia system.

Its political success helps to explain why similar conditional income transfer programmes have been adopted in 18 Latin American countries and more outside the region.

There is now talk of increasing the amount of the payments and expanding the programme's reach to cover indigenous communities in the Amazon and other remote areas.

But big questions remain about its efficiency, its impact on inequality, and whether it is in the long-term interests of Brazil.

Among the sharpest critics are left-wing academics, who have studied welfare policies for decades. They warn that bolsa familia is simply a new way of maintaining a profoundly unequal status quo.

"The PT has a strategy to be in power for 25 years. Bolsa Familia is a part of that strategy because the programme is seen as extremely popular," said Lena Lavinas, professor of welfare economics at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro and a member of the PT. "But why is bolsa familia so applauded? The conservatives say, 'Look we gave 70 reais per month to the poor so that's good'. But it's neoliberalism … People who don't understand Brazil think bolsa familia is the greatest thing, but bolsa familia is rubbish."

She says economic growth and the introduction of a minimum wage have done far more to reduce poverty. Other academics say universal pension schemes are bigger, fairer and more effective than bolsa familia, which millions miss out on because they cannot manage the complex bureaucracy or they fail to meet the conditions.

The system has its problems. In Maranhão, many people are not receiving their full entitlement. Some fear bolsa familia is just another tool for regional politicians to wield patronage because it is local officials who register people for payments.

"The amount of bolsa familia is supposed to be decided only by the number of children, so we can't understand why some people get more than others," said Neildo Mar Viera as a small crowd gathered outside a shop in Belágua to shout their agreement. "The mayor only registers his political supporters."

That allegation is unproven, and the mayor declined the Guardian's request for a response. But there are many people who feel they have been unfairly pushed outside the bolsa familia system.

Almost every morning before dawn, a long line of people wanting to ask why they have had their benefits cut or declined forms in front of the social welfare office.

The head of the office, Leocir Graeff, who is from outside the region, denies that registration is politically motivated. But she says there is only a fixed portion of bolsa familia money to go round each community.

"Every county gets a limited amount of money for bolsa familia, so those with bigger needs have priority," she says.

This is odd, as the programme is supposed to be for everyone who qualifies, regardless of where they live. It also suggests that a political decision is being made about which area gets how much money.

These problems show bolsa familia – like any welfare system – is not perfect. Nor is it the be all and end all of poverty relief in Brazil, where there are several other programmes geared towards the same objective.

While this poverty relief programme is a lot more beneficial than money simply paid out for votes, there are concerns it could end up serving the same end.

"Lula and Dilma have made the lives of the poor a little better but they haven't fundamentally changed the situation in the country," said Ozaniro da Silva. "Overall, I think bolsa familia is bad for Brazil. It maintains the status quo. It doesn't change the structural problems of concentrated prosperity. If, like me, you want a better society, then bolsa familia is not the way forward. There may be fewer hungry people, but there is no fundamental improvement."

Social development minister Tereza Campello argues that such criticism from the left has been proved wrong.

"They said everyone should receive the money because all citizens have the same rights. But no, we are different. I had a good education and advantages. I don't have the same need. It's better to focus the resources on where they are most needed. Secondly, they argued that it was wrong to impose health and education conditions on the payouts. But our results have proved that has actually been one of the biggest benefits from the program. It has been good for children and good for education. It has changed lives."

Between these two very different views, Talita Sousa Nascimento of the Maranhão Institute of Social-Economic and Cartographic Studies, said it may be better to see bolsa familia in terms of evolution rather than revolution.

"When you consider bolsa familia at a more profound level, these cash transfers are just a first step. Unlike Europe, we've never passed through a phase of having a welfare state. In Brazil, there weren't policies and politics for addressing poverty until the bolsa familia, which was the first big push to have a nationwide programme. It would be good to have a universal programme, but that would be a lot more expensive."

The debate on this cheap welfare policy looks set to rage on. Brazil's poor have been recognised as never before. Hunger has been alleviated. But inequality and old-style regional politics clearly remain alive.

Underscoring the absence of major change, Rousseff recently moved to seek the support of conservative rural politicians, including senator José Sarney, whose family have controlled Maranhão for more than 50 years. She wants his backing for next year's presidential election.

• Additional research by Anna Kaiser

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