'Should Britain fear a surge of east European migrants?' diff viewer (0/1)

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Should Britain fear a surge of east European migrants?	Should Britain fear a surge of east European migrants?
2013-12-21 21:10:10 UTC	2013-12-22 10:35:04 UTC (about 13 hours later)
Alp Mehmet: 'The issue around migration is now not just about economics, if it ever was'	Alp Mehmet: 'The issue around migration is now not just about economics, if it ever was'
The opening of our labour market to workers from Romania and Bulgaria in 10 days' time has attracted enormous attention from the media. Some say that this is just the tabloids blowing the whole issue out of proportion while being blind to the economic benefits of immigration as well as to the political advantages of stabilising eastern Europe.	The opening of our labour market to workers from Romania and Bulgaria in 10 days' time has attracted enormous attention from the media. Some say that this is just the tabloids blowing the whole issue out of proportion while being blind to the economic benefits of immigration as well as to the political advantages of stabilising eastern Europe.
We at Migrationwatch take a different view. We believe that this moment brings together, indeed encapsulates, two major issues affecting the whole future of our society – the scale of our population and our continued membership of the European Union.	We at Migrationwatch take a different view. We believe that this moment brings together, indeed encapsulates, two major issues affecting the whole future of our society – the scale of our population and our continued membership of the European Union.
Last January, Migrationwatch published a paper in which we concluded that immigration from Romania and Bulgaria could be around 50,000 a year over the first five years following full access to the labour market. That amounts to an extra population roughly the size of the London borough of Tower Hamlets. There will not be thousands of Romanians and Bulgarians queuing at the airports ready to rush to the UK at midnight on 31 December; the process will be gradual but this is what we expect in the medium term.	Last January, Migrationwatch published a paper in which we concluded that immigration from Romania and Bulgaria could be around 50,000 a year over the first five years following full access to the labour market. That amounts to an extra population roughly the size of the London borough of Tower Hamlets. There will not be thousands of Romanians and Bulgarians queuing at the airports ready to rush to the UK at midnight on 31 December; the process will be gradual but this is what we expect in the medium term.
Our forecast was based on the number who have already arrived in recent years and on a comparison with the Polish precedent. This time, other major countries – Germany, France and the Netherlands – are opening their labour market simultaneously. On the other hand, there are now nearly a million Romanians in both Spain and Italy who might transfer to the UK. According to European Union figures, 30% of Romanians in Spain were without work in 2011.	Our forecast was based on the number who have already arrived in recent years and on a comparison with the Polish precedent. This time, other major countries – Germany, France and the Netherlands – are opening their labour market simultaneously. On the other hand, there are now nearly a million Romanians in both Spain and Italy who might transfer to the UK. According to European Union figures, 30% of Romanians in Spain were without work in 2011.
Critics of our forecast have vacillated between saying that it wasn't possible to make a forecast, that those who are going to come were already here, or that the number coming didn't matter because they would be mostly young and fit and intending to work rather than to claim benefits.	Critics of our forecast have vacillated between saying that it wasn't possible to make a forecast, that those who are going to come were already here, or that the number coming didn't matter because they would be mostly young and fit and intending to work rather than to claim benefits.
We have looked carefully at the economic incentives and found that even at the UK minimum wage, a single Romanian or Bulgarian worker in the UK would earn four or five times what he would earn at home. For a family, that would be almost nine times. Even a family earning an average wage in Bulgaria and Romania could be three or four times better off in the UK on the minimum wage.	We have looked carefully at the economic incentives and found that even at the UK minimum wage, a single Romanian or Bulgarian worker in the UK would earn four or five times what he would earn at home. For a family, that would be almost nine times. Even a family earning an average wage in Bulgaria and Romania could be three or four times better off in the UK on the minimum wage.
It is very hard to know whether any of the 2.5 million Roma in these two countries will seek to migrate westwards in any numbers. Their situation is worse than that of their compatriots because they are often unable to access social welfare in their home countries. To do so, they need to have a national insurance number, which can only be allocated to people with a fixed abode – difficult for Roma, who tend to move about even within their own countries.	It is very hard to know whether any of the 2.5 million Roma in these two countries will seek to migrate westwards in any numbers. Their situation is worse than that of their compatriots because they are often unable to access social welfare in their home countries. To do so, they need to have a national insurance number, which can only be allocated to people with a fixed abode – difficult for Roma, who tend to move about even within their own countries.
I know from having lived and worked in Romania and having visited Bulgaria many times that the Romanians and Bulgarians who come to this country will mostly be decent and hard-working people.	I know from having lived and worked in Romania and having visited Bulgaria many times that the Romanians and Bulgarians who come to this country will mostly be decent and hard-working people.
I like and admire the Romanians. However, the issue around immigration is not just about economics, if it ever was. The Office for Budget Responsibility reported recently that, after reviewing the "vast literature" on the impact of migration, most of it indicated that immigrants have a positive, although not significant, impact on productivity and GDP.	I like and admire the Romanians. However, the issue around immigration is not just about economics, if it ever was. The Office for Budget Responsibility reported recently that, after reviewing the "vast literature" on the impact of migration, most of it indicated that immigrants have a positive, although not significant, impact on productivity and GDP.
The issue is now political, indeed highly political. The British public is already deeply concerned by the mass immigration of recent years. Net foreign immigration under the previous government was very nearly four million. This took place against the frequently expressed views of the public and has left a legacy of deep mistrust. According to a Sky News-Survation poll in September, 67% of respondents agreed that the UK population is already too large and that the government should take drastic action now to reduce migration.	The issue is now political, indeed highly political. The British public is already deeply concerned by the mass immigration of recent years. Net foreign immigration under the previous government was very nearly four million. This took place against the frequently expressed views of the public and has left a legacy of deep mistrust. According to a Sky News-Survation poll in September, 67% of respondents agreed that the UK population is already too large and that the government should take drastic action now to reduce migration.
The government has made some progress. Non-EU immigration, the element that they can control, is now at its lowest since 1998. Furthermore, this has been achieved while the number of overseas students at our universities has increased by some 7% and the number of business visitor visas and work permits has also increased. Britain has remained open for business.	The government has made some progress. Non-EU immigration, the element that they can control, is now at its lowest since 1998. Furthermore, this has been achieved while the number of overseas students at our universities has increased by some 7% and the number of business visitor visas and work permits has also increased. Britain has remained open for business.
My feeling is that welcome as the measures recently announced by the government were, presumably intended to dissuade some Romanians and Bulgarians from coming, they will make little difference to the numbers. Few can disagree with making the process of accessing benefits a bit more rigorous than it is. I agree, too, with the removal of beggars, the beefing up of the habitual residence test, by which claimants have to show that they intend to live in this country and that they are willing and able to work; hence the relevance of a reasonable grasp of English. I welcome, too, higher fines for employers who pay less than the law requires. These measures are what polls have consistently shown the British people want. Indeed, most people (80%) want restrictions on Romanians and Bulgarians to continue beyond 1 January.	My feeling is that welcome as the measures recently announced by the government were, presumably intended to dissuade some Romanians and Bulgarians from coming, they will make little difference to the numbers. Few can disagree with making the process of accessing benefits a bit more rigorous than it is. I agree, too, with the removal of beggars, the beefing up of the habitual residence test, by which claimants have to show that they intend to live in this country and that they are willing and able to work; hence the relevance of a reasonable grasp of English. I welcome, too, higher fines for employers who pay less than the law requires. These measures are what polls have consistently shown the British people want. Indeed, most people (80%) want restrictions on Romanians and Bulgarians to continue beyond 1 January.
The wider picture, however, is that net migration must continue to be firmly and successfully tackled. If it is allowed to drift back up to its 10-year average of 200,000 a year it will drive our population to about 70 million in a dozen years and 80 million in 2060. At least 60% of the increase will be due to immigration, which will also account for one-third of the requirement for new homes and add to the existing pressures on schools and public services. The impact on our society will be enormous, especially in areas of high immigration. The latest official forecasts have the population of such places as Kingston upon Thames and Tower Hamlets increasing by about 20% in just 10 years.	The wider picture, however, is that net migration must continue to be firmly and successfully tackled. If it is allowed to drift back up to its 10-year average of 200,000 a year it will drive our population to about 70 million in a dozen years and 80 million in 2060. At least 60% of the increase will be due to immigration, which will also account for one-third of the requirement for new homes and add to the existing pressures on schools and public services. The impact on our society will be enormous, especially in areas of high immigration. The latest official forecasts have the population of such places as Kingston upon Thames and Tower Hamlets increasing by about 20% in just 10 years.
EU migration will be the main obstacle to achieving control of the numbers. Migrants from the first eight east European countries have been adding 100,000 to our population every year. If Romania and Bulgaria add anything like another 50,000 a year, it is hard to see how our population increase can be reined in. That is not to speak of the downward pressure on low wages that nobody denies or the added competition for the one million young Britons struggling to find work.	EU migration will be the main obstacle to achieving control of the numbers. Migrants from the first eight east European countries have been adding 100,000 to our population every year. If Romania and Bulgaria add anything like another 50,000 a year, it is hard to see how our population increase can be reined in. That is not to speak of the downward pressure on low wages that nobody denies or the added competition for the one million young Britons struggling to find work.
Those who are opposed to our continued membership of the EU are using the issue as a battering ram. The war cry is that to remain in the EU is to surrender control of our borders. In present circumstances, they may well be right.	Those who are opposed to our continued membership of the EU are using the issue as a battering ram. The war cry is that to remain in the EU is to surrender control of our borders. In present circumstances, they may well be right.
We do not know how the numbers will develop in the three years or so before a referendum in 2017. Some are already suggesting that we may have to find some way of restraining the immigration of workers from existing member states. That would run contrary to the principle of free movement and would undermine the single market. It would split British politics and generate a fundamental clash with our European partners. So, perhaps, the outcome of Romanian and Bulgarian immigration is, indeed, something we should be concerned about.	We do not know how the numbers will develop in the three years or so before a referendum in 2017. Some are already suggesting that we may have to find some way of restraining the immigration of workers from existing member states. That would run contrary to the principle of free movement and would undermine the single market. It would split British politics and generate a fundamental clash with our European partners. So, perhaps, the outcome of Romanian and Bulgarian immigration is, indeed, something we should be concerned about.
Alp Mehmet is vice chair of MigrationWatch UK and former British ambassador to Iceland	Alp Mehmet is vice chair of MigrationWatch UK and former British ambassador to Iceland
Jonathan Portes: 'Politicians need to start offering a positive vision of Britain as an open, liberal nation'	Jonathan Portes: 'Politicians need to start offering a positive vision of Britain as an open, liberal nation'
According to one Terence McLeod, a self-described "passionate Conservative" from St Albans, I'm an "east European immigrant", and so is my "religious buddy" (that is, fellow Jew) Ed Miliband. I've no doubt today's Conservative party is embarrassed and disgusted by such attitudes. But subtler forms of prejudice can be found even in my profession: Paul Collier, a well-respected development specialist and professor of economics at Oxford University, complained in his recent book Exodus that "indigenous" people – which he defines as "white British" – are now "a minority in their own capital".	According to one Terence McLeod, a self-described "passionate Conservative" from St Albans, I'm an "east European immigrant", and so is my "religious buddy" (that is, fellow Jew) Ed Miliband. I've no doubt today's Conservative party is embarrassed and disgusted by such attitudes. But subtler forms of prejudice can be found even in my profession: Paul Collier, a well-respected development specialist and professor of economics at Oxford University, complained in his recent book Exodus that "indigenous" people – which he defines as "white British" – are now "a minority in their own capital".
Of course, the vast majority of those who are concerned about the full opening of the UK labour market to citizens of Bulgaria and Romania would be horrified not just at McLeod's antisemitism, but at Collier's view that black, Asian or even mixed-race people born here to British parents aren't "real" Londoners.	Of course, the vast majority of those who are concerned about the full opening of the UK labour market to citizens of Bulgaria and Romania would be horrified not just at McLeod's antisemitism, but at Collier's view that black, Asian or even mixed-race people born here to British parents aren't "real" Londoners.
That revulsion serves as a useful reminder that every significant wave of immigration to the UK has been relatively unpopular at the time, but later has come to be accepted by most, whether grudgingly or enthusiastically, as the perceived downsides have faded and the benefits become more apparent.	That revulsion serves as a useful reminder that every significant wave of immigration to the UK has been relatively unpopular at the time, but later has come to be accepted by most, whether grudgingly or enthusiastically, as the perceived downsides have faded and the benefits become more apparent.
That was the case with Jews in the early 20th century and again in the 1930s, West Indians in the 1950s and 1960s, east African Asians in the early 1970s and, most recently, Poles and other eastern Europeans in the 2000s.	That was the case with Jews in the early 20th century and again in the 1930s, West Indians in the 1950s and 1960s, east African Asians in the early 1970s and, most recently, Poles and other eastern Europeans in the 2000s.
So it is no surprise that recent research by Christian Dustmann at University College London shows that new migrants from the EU since 2000 pay a third or so more in taxes than they cost in extra spending on public services and benefits; and that a public opinion study by ICM Research for British Future, a thinktank, shows that large majorities think that Polish people work hard and make a positive contribution to Britain. It may not seem like it just now, but both the UK economy and society are, over the longer term, actually rather good at dealing with immigration.	So it is no surprise that recent research by Christian Dustmann at University College London shows that new migrants from the EU since 2000 pay a third or so more in taxes than they cost in extra spending on public services and benefits; and that a public opinion study by ICM Research for British Future, a thinktank, shows that large majorities think that Polish people work hard and make a positive contribution to Britain. It may not seem like it just now, but both the UK economy and society are, over the longer term, actually rather good at dealing with immigration.
It is in this light that we should evaluate the measures that the government reannounced last week to combat "benefit tourism", a phenomenon for which the government has conceded there is no "quantitative evidence".	It is in this light that we should evaluate the measures that the government reannounced last week to combat "benefit tourism", a phenomenon for which the government has conceded there is no "quantitative evidence".
Four weeks ago, government sources told the Daily Mail that the prime minister would announce that "new arrivals would have to wait a year, up from three months, to get benefits". But two days later, he wrote in the Financial Times: "We are changing the rules so that no one can come to this country and expect to get out-of-work benefits immediately; we will not pay them for the first three months." So he's changing the rules to the ones we've already got (which, while complex, are broadly fair, both to migrants and to taxpayers).	Four weeks ago, government sources told the Daily Mail that the prime minister would announce that "new arrivals would have to wait a year, up from three months, to get benefits". But two days later, he wrote in the Financial Times: "We are changing the rules so that no one can come to this country and expect to get out-of-work benefits immediately; we will not pay them for the first three months." So he's changing the rules to the ones we've already got (which, while complex, are broadly fair, both to migrants and to taxpayers).
This is not xenophobia, as European commissioner László Andor suggested. Rather, it is a confused attempt to confuse the public, by pretending that there is a problem, and then pretending to do something about it.	This is not xenophobia, as European commissioner László Andor suggested. Rather, it is a confused attempt to confuse the public, by pretending that there is a problem, and then pretending to do something about it.
If the government actually wants to be taken seriously, it should publish the data it holds on the number of migrants who claim benefits within three months of registering for a national insurance number. Their failure to do so suggests ministers either already know their policies will have little or no impact in the real world; or they simply don't care, since the policies were always about perception rather than reality.	If the government actually wants to be taken seriously, it should publish the data it holds on the number of migrants who claim benefits within three months of registering for a national insurance number. Their failure to do so suggests ministers either already know their policies will have little or no impact in the real world; or they simply don't care, since the policies were always about perception rather than reality.
Far better than this charade would be for the government to address real problems, particularly around exploitation and abuse.	Far better than this charade would be for the government to address real problems, particularly around exploitation and abuse.
Labour is wrong to apologise for its decision, in government, to open the UK labour market in 2004 to the new member states, but it did make a significant error in not addressing potential abuse of the posted workers directive, which has been used to get around labour laws and minimum-wage provisions, not just here but elsewhere in the EU. Last week, EU labour ministers discussed this: our representative, Esther McVey, was in the forefront of resisting efforts to reform the directive.	Labour is wrong to apologise for its decision, in government, to open the UK labour market in 2004 to the new member states, but it did make a significant error in not addressing potential abuse of the posted workers directive, which has been used to get around labour laws and minimum-wage provisions, not just here but elsewhere in the EU. Last week, EU labour ministers discussed this: our representative, Esther McVey, was in the forefront of resisting efforts to reform the directive.
But, more broadly, immigration is mostly a red herring when it comes to concerns about the UK labour market.	But, more broadly, immigration is mostly a red herring when it comes to concerns about the UK labour market.
Youth unemployment was stubbornly high even before the recession and labour market prospects for young people without skills and qualifications are likely to remain bleak even in recovery. There's plenty to be worried about. But not one credible economic analysis suggests migration from the EU has had a negative impact on the employment or unemployment rates of native Britons. Indeed, youth unemployment actually rose faster during the recession in areas that experienced lower immigration rates.	Youth unemployment was stubbornly high even before the recession and labour market prospects for young people without skills and qualifications are likely to remain bleak even in recovery. There's plenty to be worried about. But not one credible economic analysis suggests migration from the EU has had a negative impact on the employment or unemployment rates of native Britons. Indeed, youth unemployment actually rose faster during the recession in areas that experienced lower immigration rates.
And while the evidence is mixed on wages, with some evidence of downward pressure for the lower paid, the impacts are very small compared to more important factors such as technological change and the minimum wage.	And while the evidence is mixed on wages, with some evidence of downward pressure for the lower paid, the impacts are very small compared to more important factors such as technological change and the minimum wage.
Claiming that keeping out Romanians and Bulgarians (or other immigrants) would do anything significant to improve the life chances of young Brits isn't just wrong, it's delusional and a distraction from policies that might make a real difference.	Claiming that keeping out Romanians and Bulgarians (or other immigrants) would do anything significant to improve the life chances of young Brits isn't just wrong, it's delusional and a distraction from policies that might make a real difference.
Similar issues arise in public services. Take education, where the children of new migrants have certainly placed extra burdens on schools, a problem greatly exacerbated by poor planning.	Similar issues arise in public services. Take education, where the children of new migrants have certainly placed extra burdens on schools, a problem greatly exacerbated by poor planning.
Despite this, it turns out that children who don't speak English as a first language don't drag down the performance of their fellow pupils – if anything, the opposite. The extraordinary improvement in the performance of London schools, especially for poor kids, may or may not be related to the increased numbers of migrant children.	Despite this, it turns out that children who don't speak English as a first language don't drag down the performance of their fellow pupils – if anything, the opposite. The extraordinary improvement in the performance of London schools, especially for poor kids, may or may not be related to the increased numbers of migrant children.
But what we do know is that native children have benefited as well – poor white kids do far better in London than elsewhere. The worst performing local authorities in the country, from Knowsley to the Isle of Wight, generally have few migrants.	But what we do know is that native children have benefited as well – poor white kids do far better in London than elsewhere. The worst performing local authorities in the country, from Knowsley to the Isle of Wight, generally have few migrants.
What about wider economic impacts? Some have argued that immigration has little impact on per capita GDP. But this ignores much of the recent economic research on this topic, which suggests that immigrants can boost innovation and raise productivity; and that, perhaps as a consequence, countries more open to immigration, like countries more open to trade, seem to have higher productivity growth.	What about wider economic impacts? Some have argued that immigration has little impact on per capita GDP. But this ignores much of the recent economic research on this topic, which suggests that immigrants can boost innovation and raise productivity; and that, perhaps as a consequence, countries more open to immigration, like countries more open to trade, seem to have higher productivity growth.