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| Peterborough braces for new EU arrivals | Peterborough braces for new EU arrivals |
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| On the wall of his office in the centre of Peterborough, Jonathan Lewis has a large map over which he gestures like an enthusiastic weatherman while describing the patterns of incoming settlement in the six years he has been doing his job. | On the wall of his office in the centre of Peterborough, Jonathan Lewis has a large map over which he gestures like an enthusiastic weatherman while describing the patterns of incoming settlement in the six years he has been doing his job. |
| As the city council's director of children's resources, responsible for ensuring that every child in the city has a school place, Lewis can point to colourful pie charts about Peterborough's changing population, and detailed breakdowns of the character of each of the city's dozens of schools. | As the city council's director of children's resources, responsible for ensuring that every child in the city has a school place, Lewis can point to colourful pie charts about Peterborough's changing population, and detailed breakdowns of the character of each of the city's dozens of schools. |
| What he can't tell you is how many additional school places he will need next week, when the restrictions on Romanians and Bulgarians working fully in Britain are lifted. "I haven't got a clue. I've tried to work it out. I've looked at previous trends around migration. But you really cannot predict the numbers that are coming in." | What he can't tell you is how many additional school places he will need next week, when the restrictions on Romanians and Bulgarians working fully in Britain are lifted. "I haven't got a clue. I've tried to work it out. I've looked at previous trends around migration. But you really cannot predict the numbers that are coming in." |
| The Conservative leader of the city council, Marco Cereste, knows no more. "How can I tell you how many Romanians are going to come to Peterborough? I can't tell you. And I don't think anybody can." | |
| Days before lifting of temporary restrictions on the two countries, Peterborough's problem is Britain's problem. It is in this void of information that policy is being made, and made frantically, with David Cameron announcing that ministers would rush through benefit restrictions from 1 January, a move previously dismissed by the Home Office as impossible. | Days before lifting of temporary restrictions on the two countries, Peterborough's problem is Britain's problem. It is in this void of information that policy is being made, and made frantically, with David Cameron announcing that ministers would rush through benefit restrictions from 1 January, a move previously dismissed by the Home Office as impossible. |
| But if the mood in Downing Street appears to be one of barely concealed alarm, what about Peterborough, a modest cathedral city that has changed markedly as a result of recent European migration? | But if the mood in Downing Street appears to be one of barely concealed alarm, what about Peterborough, a modest cathedral city that has changed markedly as a result of recent European migration? |
| It has long been a focus for migrant communities, but never on this scale. Between 2004 and 2009, according to the 2011 census, 16,948 people, 9.3% of its population, moved to the city from overseas; more than 14,000 are from the new EU countries, though some people, including Cereste, think their numbers may be considerably higher. | |
| The city's birthrate, falling in 2004, has skyrocketed (in 2011 it was a third higher than the national average, and the fourth highest outside London); its school intake into reception was up by about 50% over the same period. | The city's birthrate, falling in 2004, has skyrocketed (in 2011 it was a third higher than the national average, and the fourth highest outside London); its school intake into reception was up by about 50% over the same period. |
| As the political debate on the subject moves ever rightwards, it is unsurprising that in Peterborough, voices looking forward to increased numbers of Romanian and Bulgarian migrants are hard to find. "This isn't the country I was born into," says Jean, a 60-something who has popped into the city centre from nearby Huntingdon with her friend Chris but declines to give her full name."We can't talk about them because we're accused of being racist. We are in our own country but we haven't got freedom of speech." | As the political debate on the subject moves ever rightwards, it is unsurprising that in Peterborough, voices looking forward to increased numbers of Romanian and Bulgarian migrants are hard to find. "This isn't the country I was born into," says Jean, a 60-something who has popped into the city centre from nearby Huntingdon with her friend Chris but declines to give her full name."We can't talk about them because we're accused of being racist. We are in our own country but we haven't got freedom of speech." |
| She worries about crime, an "alien" culture, and the future; her granddaughter has been priced out of the rental market because landlords can get more from renting to multiple families, she says, and so has moved back in with her mum. "And I'm absolutely terrified about this January thing with the Romanians," she says. Why? "Because those countries will get rid of the rubbish they don't want."Peterborough does not yet have a significant Romanian or Bulgarian population — while seasonal agricultural workers from the two countries have come on a licensed short-term scheme throughout East Anglia and elsewhere, the older, more settled communities are focused in places like in northwest London, Nottingham and Northampton. But with population patterns in the city subject to rapid and sometimes unexplained change – the number of Hungarian children in local schools jumped 144% between 2012 and 2013, for instance – city planners know it may find itself a focus of the new migrant communities. | She worries about crime, an "alien" culture, and the future; her granddaughter has been priced out of the rental market because landlords can get more from renting to multiple families, she says, and so has moved back in with her mum. "And I'm absolutely terrified about this January thing with the Romanians," she says. Why? "Because those countries will get rid of the rubbish they don't want."Peterborough does not yet have a significant Romanian or Bulgarian population — while seasonal agricultural workers from the two countries have come on a licensed short-term scheme throughout East Anglia and elsewhere, the older, more settled communities are focused in places like in northwest London, Nottingham and Northampton. But with population patterns in the city subject to rapid and sometimes unexplained change – the number of Hungarian children in local schools jumped 144% between 2012 and 2013, for instance – city planners know it may find itself a focus of the new migrant communities. |
| On Lincoln Road, the heart of Peterborough's many immigrant communities to the north of the centre, Polish supermarkets crowd next to Italian delis and Turkish clothes shops along a stretch of road where very few of those on foot or in the shops speak English as their first language. Kimathi Dedan, originally from Kenya, says the job market has got tighter in the city in recent years. "When the Poles arrived here, I would go to look for jobs and see people with suitcases. We realised that people were applying for jobs while they were in Poland and the people here couldn't get them." | On Lincoln Road, the heart of Peterborough's many immigrant communities to the north of the centre, Polish supermarkets crowd next to Italian delis and Turkish clothes shops along a stretch of road where very few of those on foot or in the shops speak English as their first language. Kimathi Dedan, originally from Kenya, says the job market has got tighter in the city in recent years. "When the Poles arrived here, I would go to look for jobs and see people with suitcases. We realised that people were applying for jobs while they were in Poland and the people here couldn't get them." |
| "I just can't bear to think of it," says Wendy Simms, assistant manager of the Sense charity shop, of the lifting of the Romanian and Bulgarian restrictions. "My belief is that this country couldn't deal with what we had to cope with before we had all these Europeans coming in." | "I just can't bear to think of it," says Wendy Simms, assistant manager of the Sense charity shop, of the lifting of the Romanian and Bulgarian restrictions. "My belief is that this country couldn't deal with what we had to cope with before we had all these Europeans coming in." |
| She worries about jobs for young people, and fears that British culture, including its tradition of tolerance, is undermined by other communities with different values. "It is extremely intimidating on this street now. We don't understand each other." | She worries about jobs for young people, and fears that British culture, including its tradition of tolerance, is undermined by other communities with different values. "It is extremely intimidating on this street now. We don't understand each other." |
| For Peterborough's MP, Stewart Jackson, the city has coped, but "coped under duress". An outspoken Tory rightwinger, he acknowledges that migration has brought positives for some – "everyone else has benefited, the migrants themselves have benefited, the Treasury has benefited, the local businesses have benefited". But he adds: "The council tax payer in Peterborough has paid a heavy burden." | For Peterborough's MP, Stewart Jackson, the city has coped, but "coped under duress". An outspoken Tory rightwinger, he acknowledges that migration has brought positives for some – "everyone else has benefited, the migrants themselves have benefited, the Treasury has benefited, the local businesses have benefited". But he adds: "The council tax payer in Peterborough has paid a heavy burden." |
| Ukip has no councillors in the city (though the party is strong elsewhere in Cambridgeshire), but the Tory MP says his party "absolutely" may lose power if it doesn't take what he considers a bold position on the subject. | Ukip has no councillors in the city (though the party is strong elsewhere in Cambridgeshire), but the Tory MP says his party "absolutely" may lose power if it doesn't take what he considers a bold position on the subject. |
| The Eurosceptic position Jackson voices, and the threat of Ukip, may have successfully yanked the Conservative, and the broader political debate, to the right, but Atul Hatwal, director of Migration Matters, says the fact that the strains in some areas have been acute does not in itself argue against migration. "There's no point talking about economic growth if you can't get your children into school," he says, "but that's a question of how you manage migration, not the principle in itself." Much of the debate about migrants, even among those living close to new communities, is based on "stereotypes and anecdotes", he says. "Public concern is legitimate and needs to be understood, but the debate actually needs to go back to the facts." | The Eurosceptic position Jackson voices, and the threat of Ukip, may have successfully yanked the Conservative, and the broader political debate, to the right, but Atul Hatwal, director of Migration Matters, says the fact that the strains in some areas have been acute does not in itself argue against migration. "There's no point talking about economic growth if you can't get your children into school," he says, "but that's a question of how you manage migration, not the principle in itself." Much of the debate about migrants, even among those living close to new communities, is based on "stereotypes and anecdotes", he says. "Public concern is legitimate and needs to be understood, but the debate actually needs to go back to the facts." |
| Cereste, the council leader, acknowledges that if asked their views, a majority of those in the city would express apprehension about further incomers. "I understand fully what my citizens think. But I can't stop the immigration. So I have to turn what could be a potential serious problem into a positive. And if you look at what has happened in Peterborough, once the families are settled, the children go to school, those families become productive citizens of our city." | |
| Describing the Lincoln Road area a decade ago, he says: "I won't say it was dying – it was dead. Today you have thriving businesses, every house is no longer boarded up, you have people living there, coffee bars, you have probably half the races of the world represented in coffee bars, restaurants, and its alive. Doesn't mean it doesn't have its issues, but it's alive." | Describing the Lincoln Road area a decade ago, he says: "I won't say it was dying – it was dead. Today you have thriving businesses, every house is no longer boarded up, you have people living there, coffee bars, you have probably half the races of the world represented in coffee bars, restaurants, and its alive. Doesn't mean it doesn't have its issues, but it's alive." |
| Jackson, though, is not so convinced. "Parts of it are a drunken slum!" he scoffs when asked about this perspective. Of Cereste's Conservative-dominated administration he says: "Allegedly it's a Tory council." | |
| Even Jackson accepts that, as migrants become established, they bring benefits to the city as well as the challenges. Many among the large, self-confident Polish community have a culture of aspiration, he says, and in pockets of the city they are acting as "role models" to challenge the low aspirations of the white working class. | Even Jackson accepts that, as migrants become established, they bring benefits to the city as well as the challenges. Many among the large, self-confident Polish community have a culture of aspiration, he says, and in pockets of the city they are acting as "role models" to challenge the low aspirations of the white working class. |
| Meanwhile educational standards in the city are rising – one primary school where, according to Cereste, not a single student spoke English as a first language has had its Ofsted score revised upwards to "good". The city's educational profile has also risen in the period coinciding EU migration, with 20% holding diploma level or above, compared with 14.8% in 2001. | |
| When pressed further, those in the city who express anxiety about newcomers to the city will admit to more nuanced views. Jean's friend Chris interrupts to point out that the Poles she actually knows "couldn't be better". | When pressed further, those in the city who express anxiety about newcomers to the city will admit to more nuanced views. Jean's friend Chris interrupts to point out that the Poles she actually knows "couldn't be better". |
| "One of them knocked on the door and gave me a box of chocolates because he said they'd had a party. But it didn't cause me any aggro at all. There's good people and bad people from everywhere." | "One of them knocked on the door and gave me a box of chocolates because he said they'd had a party. But it didn't cause me any aggro at all. There's good people and bad people from everywhere." |
| • This article was amended on 30 December, 2013. The name of the leader of Peterborough City Council was missepelled as Mario "Celeste". | |
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