French unemployment rises to 3.29m

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/26/french-unemployment-rises-francois-hollande

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The French government has insisted that President François Hollande will keep his election pledge to reduce unemployment by the end of 2013, despite announcing a rise in the monthly jobless total.

The eurozone's second-largest economy is on the brink of another recession after a 0.1% decline in third-quarter GDP was compounded by poor manufacturing numbers for November. The unemployment data for the same month, confirmed the downbeat outlook as the ministry of work announced an additional 17,800 job-seekers signed on last month after a small drop in October.

The new figures bring the number of unemployed in mainland France to 3.29 million, taking it to more than 10.5% of the working population. The small rise in November was marked in all age groups, including the under-25s, who have been targeted by a new government contract scheme.

The minor drop in October of 20,500 people was the first time the total had fallen since April 2011. Halting the rise of unemployment in France was described as Hollande's "primary objective" since he was elected president in 2012.

France's Socialist leader has promised to get unemployment falling by year-end, although according to official forecasts it will not start to decline until the middle of next year.

In a statement, the ministry said the trend had improved over the past months, noting that the average monthly rise in jobless claims had eased from 30,000 in the first quarter to 18,000 in the second quarter, and 5,500 in the third quarter. Combining November's figures with October's – when they unexpectedly fell by 20,500 – monthly jobless claims are down 1,350 so far in the fourth quarter, it added.

"The reversal of the jobless trend is therefore well and truly in place in this fourth quarter of 2013," it concluded.

But private and public corporations have kept up a steady stream of lay-off announcements over the past three months.

The telecom equipment maker Alcatel-Lucent plans to reduce headcount by 900 in France and 10,000 worldwide, while trade unions fear that 700 jobs will be lost if the retailer La Redoute is sold by the luxury brands group Kering. Meanwhile, a report last week stated that the national rail operator, SNCF, plans to axe more than 1,400 jobs next year.

The work minister, Michel Sapin, said this week that the process of stimulating a job market beset by chronically high unemployment for more than a decade was a long-term effort.

"It's a battle that we are committed to, and that we are winning bit by bit, month after month," Sapin told RMC radio.

Official analysts, however, say that the predicted number of jobs that will be created between October 2013 and June 2014 – 76,000 – will not be enough to absorb the predicted rise in the active population of 113,000.

Just over a quarter of French people have a positive opinion of Hollande, according to a recent poll, the worst score for a French leader in 32 years. If GDP declines in the final quarter of 2013, as the latest manufacturing data indicates, France will enter another recession, having only emerged from another downturn in the second quarter of 2013.

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