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Drug trade could splinter Afghanistan into fragmented criminal state – UN Drug trade could splinter Afghanistan into fragmented criminal state – UN
(about 20 hours later)
Afghanistan's booming narcotics trade risks splintering the country into a "fragmented criminal state" if the government and its western allies do not step up efforts to tackle opium production, a senior UN official has warned. Afghanistan's booming narcotics trade risks splintering the country into a "fragmented, criminal state" if the government and its western allies do not step up efforts to tackle opium production and the illicit economy it supports, a senior UN official warned.
Opium farming in Afghanistan, the world's main producer of the drug, hit a record high this year, with farmers harvesting a crop worth nearly $1bn (£610m) to them, and far more to the traffickers who take about four-fifths of the profit. Opium farming in Afghanistan, the world's main producer of the drug, hit a record high last year, with farmers harvesting a crop worth nearly $1bn (£610m) to them, and far more to the traffickers who take about four-fifths of the profit.
Jean-Luc Lemahieu, outgoing head of the UN office on drugs and crime in Afghanistan, believes opium production is likely to soar beyond this year's record levels before it falls – and that the transformation of the country's corrupt economy will take up to two decades. There are no miracle cures. A transformation of the corrupt economy could take up to two decades, and opium production is likely to climb beyond 2013's worrying levels before it falls again, said Jean-Luc Lemahieu, outgoing head of the UN office on drugs and crime in Afghanistan.
"If we are not careful then Afghanistan has a real risk of becoming a fragmented criminal state," Lemahieu told the Guardian after five years grappling with corruption and neglect of the narcotics problem in Afghanistan. But he still sees cause for hope in the transformation of the narcotics police into a disciplined and relatively well respected force, an increase in treatment for Afghan addicts, and the government's recent crackdown on powerful officials linked to the drugs trade including the arrest of a top police officer.
"One thing we have learned from the last decade is that the miracle solutions just do not work. They simply do not exist. This will be hard work, long work, that demands a lot of persistence and courage. The remedy is known, the medicine is on the table – all we have to do is take it." "If no appropriate action is taken, then Afghanistan runs the risk of becoming a fragmented criminal state, ruled by an illicit economy," Lemahieu told the Guardian after five years grappling with Afghanistan's narcotics problem, as well as interlinked issues from government corruption to other criminal enterprises like illegal logging. "It is not too late, but we need to act decisively."
Lemahieu said there was cause for hope in the transformation of the narcotics police into a disciplined and relatively well-connected force, and in the government's reluctant crackdown on powerful officials linked to the drug trade, including the arrest of a top police officer. Feverish concerns about the future are helping keep prices high despite a glut. Negotiations over a deal to keep US forces here after 2014 have been stalled by tensions between Kabul and Washington, and no one knows who will be running the country after a presidential poll set for April, which the incumbent President Hamid Karzai is barred from contesting.
The trade ties together the Taliban and many of the corrupt officials inside Afghanistan whose bank accounts were swollen by the western contracting dollars handed out on the back of the military occupation, Lemahieu said. "At this moment there is more opium being produced in Afghanistan than is required for the outside market," Lemahieu said. "It is domestic speculation coping with uncertain times and compensating for declining international money flows within the country."
As that money dries up they are looking for other sources of cash to pay off patrons or prospective supporters. The government recently arrested the police chief of western Nimroz province; its long and porous border with Iran is one of the main smuggling routes out of the country. The cash is vital for all the officials and their supporters counting on the drugs for unorthodox campaign finance during presidential elections this year and parliamentary ones in 2015. When those are over, and there is more certainty about what Afghanistan might look like after foreign troops have left and Karzai has been replaced, prices may finally start to come down to levels justified by demand, he said.
"This is about the illicit economy taking over the future of a country in which you have invested 12 years," Lemahieu said. But the trade will not end even with prices at half current levels, until the international community reverses years of neglect and marginalisation and treats counter-narcotics as a problem that runs across all development efforts.
"You cannot separate this out as something from one side or another. Not all in the Taliban are happy about the drug business, but undeniably many of them are involved. Not all in the government applaud the corruption and the drug business, but undeniably many are involved. And the ones who are involved on both sides know each others' phone numbers, they find each other." "The security agenda and short-term ideas of success didn't go well with the ideas of counter-narcotics work," Lemaheiu said, pointing out that in some areas the military event blocked counter-narcotics efforts, worried that they could alienate local power brokers or drive farmers into the arms of insurgents. "For the international military, counter-narcotics went against their aim of winning hearts and minds," he added.
With presidential elections looming next year, and parliamentary polls after that, many government officials are relying on the trade for unorthodox campaign finances, Lemahieu said. The drugs trade ties together the Taliban and many of the corrupt officials inside Afghanistan, whose bank accounts were swollen by the tide of western dollars poured into efforts to pacify and rebuild the country.
"At this moment there is more opium being produced in Afghanistan than is required for the outside market ... the boom in the opium market is one of speculation," he said. "There is no saying it will decline with all the insecurity plaguing Afghanistan, and besides that the political market hasn't calmed down. There is a need for a lot of money." As foreign cash dries up on the back of the troop withdrawal, businessmen and the officials they paid off are looking for other sources of cash. The government recently arrested the police chief of western Nimroz province on suspicion of ties to the drug trade; a long and porous border with Iran makes the sparsely populated desert province one of the main smuggling routes out of the country.
But the Taliban are also more reliant on poppies for financing than ever before, as conflict in the Arab world sucks away donations that once poured into their coffers. The Taliban are also more reliant on poppies for financing than ever before, as conflict in the Middle East sucks away some of the donations from rich sympathisers that once poured into their coffers.
The international community must force Afghanistan to make drug reduction a priority, after a decade of shying away from it. It is still not on a list of "national priority programmes", and counter-narcotics are barely mentioned in documents laying out aid priorities for Kabul and its backers over the next decade. "Not all in the Taliban are happy about the drug business, but undeniably too many of them are involved. Not all connected to the government applaud the corruption and the drug business, but no doubt too many have their hands in the pot," Lemahieu said. "And the ones who are involved on both sides know each others' phone numbers, they find each other."
Change must involve slow work with communities that grow opium, offering them improvements in quality of life to compensate for the dropoff in income that is an inevitable result of ending drug production, said Lemahieu, who helped co-ordinate a successful reduction in opium cultivation in Burma before moving to Afghanistan. Despite opium's duel role fuelling the insurgency and a large portion of much-resented government corruption, poppy eradication still does not feature on a list of national priorities drawn up by Kabul. Major donors show little more interest; counter-narcotics is barely mentioned in a pact detailing aid priorities for the government and its backers over the next decade that was drawn up in Tokyo two years ago.
No other crop can match the financial returns, but in a sign that development and curbing the trade are linked, far more children are in school in areas where there is no poppy harvest than in farming communities that cultivate the drug. "We have to understand that doing nothing on the illicit economy will defeat the security and development agendas," Lemahieu said. "If the governance system would work properly, then external threats might be easier to cope with."
"If you can work on other factors you can prepare a community to have less income but better quality of life – access to clinics, schools, irrigation," Lemahieu said. Change must involve slow work with communities that grow opium, offering them improvements in quality of life to compensate for the drop-off in income that is an inevitable result of ending drug production, said Lemahieu, who helped coordinate a successful reduction in opium cultivation in Burma before moving to Afghanistan.
He added that it was also important aid workers ensured their projects did not add to the problem, for instance by building no-strings-attached irrigation networks in poppy growing areas. No other crop can match the financial returns from poppies, but in a possible sign that development and curbing the trade are linked, far more children are in school in areas where there is no poppy than in farming communities that cultivate the drug.
"Many times we have seen that some of the aid providers, with the best of intentions, ended up growing more opium. So you have to not only abide by the principle of do not harm, but have to have a more active principle to also make sure the farmers do not phase out." "If you can work on other factors you can prepare a community to have less income but still a similar or better quality of life: access to agricultural services and markets, food security, other income within the extended family, clinics, schools, irrigation," Lemaheiu said.
However, any change will be slow, not least because of the employment impact of ending opium cultivation, which employs five times as many people as wheat farming, in a country with a young population flooding out of school to look for jobs each year. However any change will be slow, not least because of the impact of ending opium cultivation on rural jobs. The crop employs five times as many people as wheat farming, in a country with hundreds of thousands of young people flooding out of school to look for jobs each year.
"The security agenda and short-term ideas of success didn't go well with the ideas of counter-narcotics work, but what we have to understand is that doing nothing on the illicit economy will defeat your security and development agenda." "We need to be persistent. Political courage is required and supporting those who want to make a change … understanding that real solutions are feasible," Lemahieu said.
"We need to be persistent. Political courage is required and supporting those who want to make a change, understanding that real solutions are feasible, but if you go too fast you may do more harm than good. You cannot pull the rug from under an employment market that already has to absorb up to half a million new entrants each year." "Yet if one moves too fast, in the belief that fast-track immediate solutions are within reach, one may end up doing more harm than good. One cannot pull the rug from under an employment market that already has to absorb up to half a million new entrants each year."
• This article was amended on 6 January to include updated quotes after an editing error
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