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Does David Cameron's claim on flood defence spending hold water? Does David Cameron's claim on flood defence spending hold water?
(35 minutes later)
David Cameron claims his government will have spent more on flood defences between 2011 and 2015 than in the four years of Labour rule from 2006-10.David Cameron claims his government will have spent more on flood defences between 2011 and 2015 than in the four years of Labour rule from 2006-10.
Does the claim stack up? The short answer – if you take into account inflation – is no: there will have been a cut in real terms. Furthermore, a real-terms comparison between what was spent on flood defences in the last year of Labour's budget – £646m in 2010-11 – and the last year of the coalition's current spending plans – £546m in 2015-16 – shows a 15% drop.Does the claim stack up? The short answer – if you take into account inflation – is no: there will have been a cut in real terms. Furthermore, a real-terms comparison between what was spent on flood defences in the last year of Labour's budget – £646m in 2010-11 – and the last year of the coalition's current spending plans – £546m in 2015-16 – shows a 15% drop.
But Cameron's claim can be made true – just – with the following argument. First, ignore inflation. Even then, total government spending on flood defences in the current four-year spending period – £2.134bn – falls short of that in the previous spending period by £102m. But the government claims a new partnership funding scheme – largely taken from local authority budgets – will deliver £148m by 2015. So, assuming the partnership money materialises, Cameron can claim that 2% more – £46m – will be spent. But Cameron's claim can be made true – just – with the following argument. First, ignore inflation. Even then, total government spending on flood defences in the current four-year spending period – £2.134bn – falls short of that in the previous spending period by £102m. But the government claims a new partnership funding scheme – largely taken from local authority budgets – will deliver £148m by 2015. So, assuming the partnership money materialises, Cameron (left) can claim that 2% more – £46m – will be spent.
But there are two important caveats. First, the early years of the 2006-10 period – including low-spending years before the devastating flooding of 2007 – led ministers to ramp up funding. Second, climate change is driving up the risk of flooding far faster than any increase in spending on defences – whichever way you do the accounts.But there are two important caveats. First, the early years of the 2006-10 period – including low-spending years before the devastating flooding of 2007 – led ministers to ramp up funding. Second, climate change is driving up the risk of flooding far faster than any increase in spending on defences – whichever way you do the accounts.
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