Ed Balls and Nick Clegg's relationship latest: it's complicated

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/09/ed-balls-nick-clegg-relationship

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It started as an interview with the New Statesman, but you knew it was serious when the affair took to Twitter. In the article, Ed Balls spoke warmly – almost fondly – of Nick Clegg. Then, coyly using the medium of meme, the deputy prime minister responded with the classic "Ed Balls" tweet. Finally, and almost inevitably, Balls responded with the pre-election classic: "I agree with Nick".

So far, so lovely. Perhaps even now, they are poking each other on Facebook and changing their relationship statuses. But if they are, the truth is, the best either could offer is an "it's complicated".

First of all, the families do not approve. In fact the war between Labour and the Liberal Democrats is as vicious as any fought between the Montagues and Capulets. Simply put, the activists hate each other.

Both sides are as vicious as the other and both are determined that it is all the other's fault. Yes, there is no love lost between the tribes of tribalists. If those at the top do make a concerted effort to work together, there will be little rejoicing in the ranks of either party. But they might accept the pragmatic realism of a shotgun wedding if those are the circumstances voters force upon them.

There is also precious little trust there. Each side offers completely conflicting accounts of why this affair didn't work out the last time it was tried. Labour may well be right to view such moves with suspicion, as part of the Lib Dem attempt to live a life separate from the Tories. Is this a genuine courtship or are they just stringing us along again so they can get more out of the party they really love? That fear will lie at the heart of every Labour activist.

But if so, what would be in it for Balls? Not known previously for his fondness for either Clegg or his party, Balls is a Labour tribalist and proud of it. It may well be his reputation as a bruiser and his fondness for heckling in the house that put off the Lib Dems.

But he has been making changes lately. He tweets about cake, he runs marathons, he is learning the piano. Is this bad boy mellowing? Is this new found non-partisan stance part of the new Mellow Balls? Or does he fear his position might be the price demanded in any future coalition agreement? Are he and Clegg protecting each other, as activists from each side call for their heads as part of any deal? Like cold war spies they may have become oddly reliant simply on the continued existence of the other. It would be marriage of convenience, not of conviction.

The election is getting closer, but it is not nearly as close as it feels like it ought to be. Fixed terms have upset all the political rhythms and so everyone feels like they are on the downward stretch when there is still almost a year and a half to go. That will be a long time for these two to either bond further or fall out. Or, like a couple in a soup opera, they could keeping us guessing and entertained over the coming months.

But like any soap opera relationship, the path is neither smooth nor guaranteed. Labour might win the election outright or fail to overtake the Tories. Even if the maths works, the pre-nup of a coalition agreement will be incredibly hard to work out. Just what will Clegg expect to be able to carry over from his previous marriage? Can Labour change the Lib Dems or should they learn to love them, orange warts and all?

Nothing is certain except this: it's going to be fascinating. When the coalition started it was frequently likened to a marriage. But is Labour to be the next bride or just the sordid affair that put the lead back in Clegg's pencil? Watch this space.

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