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Obesity: How worried should we be? | Obesity: How worried should we be? |
(about 1 hour later) | |
The festive period is barely behind us, but already there are more worrying headlines about obesity. | The festive period is barely behind us, but already there are more worrying headlines about obesity. |
Monday's newspapers - and this website - warn the scale of the obesity crisis may be worse than feared. | |
The National Obesity Forum believes there is a "serious risk" the current projection - that half of adults will be obese by 2050 - could be exceeded. | The National Obesity Forum believes there is a "serious risk" the current projection - that half of adults will be obese by 2050 - could be exceeded. |
After a fortnight of over-indulgence, could it possibly have come at a worst time? | After a fortnight of over-indulgence, could it possibly have come at a worst time? |
Of course, the timing is not a coincidence. | Of course, the timing is not a coincidence. |
This week is actually National Obesity Awareness Week, which has been timed to coincide with the traditional round of new year resolutions to become healthier. | This week is actually National Obesity Awareness Week, which has been timed to coincide with the traditional round of new year resolutions to become healthier. |
The group behind the report is a well respected organisation set up by medical professionals over a decade ago. | The group behind the report is a well respected organisation set up by medical professionals over a decade ago. |
Evidence emerging | Evidence emerging |
It campaigns for stronger intervention on obesity - and has been critical of this government's approach which has been characterised by pursuing partnership working with industry through the "responsibility deal". | It campaigns for stronger intervention on obesity - and has been critical of this government's approach which has been characterised by pursuing partnership working with industry through the "responsibility deal". |
Suffice, to say, it is in their interests to keep obesity in the news. | Suffice, to say, it is in their interests to keep obesity in the news. |
But is the latest warning justified? | But is the latest warning justified? |
The prediction that half of adults could be obese in the middle of this century dates back to the government-commissioned 2007 Foresight report. | The prediction that half of adults could be obese in the middle of this century dates back to the government-commissioned 2007 Foresight report. |
At the time, the experts behind it admitted there was "uncertainty" about the predictions because there were so many variables that influenced obesity. | At the time, the experts behind it admitted there was "uncertainty" about the predictions because there were so many variables that influenced obesity. |
So it was always quite conceivable it could be worse than that. | So it was always quite conceivable it could be worse than that. |
Much will depend on government policies, but there are plenty of factors (genes and the ageing population to name two) that are also out of the control of ministers. | Much will depend on government policies, but there are plenty of factors (genes and the ageing population to name two) that are also out of the control of ministers. |
However, there is also evidence emerging that it could be less worse than feared. | However, there is also evidence emerging that it could be less worse than feared. |
A quarter of both men and women are now classed as obese, up from 13% and 16% respectively in the early 1990s, according to the Health Survey for England. | A quarter of both men and women are now classed as obese, up from 13% and 16% respectively in the early 1990s, according to the Health Survey for England. |
But the majority of that rise was seen before the turn of the century. | But the majority of that rise was seen before the turn of the century. |
The figures for children are perhaps even more upbeat. | The figures for children are perhaps even more upbeat. |
In the past few years the numbers appear to have started levelling off, according to the health survey. | In the past few years the numbers appear to have started levelling off, according to the health survey. |
Life expectancy | Life expectancy |
Prof Alan Maryon-Davies, a former president of the UK Faculty of Public Health, thinks these statistics are encouraging. | Prof Alan Maryon-Davies, a former president of the UK Faculty of Public Health, thinks these statistics are encouraging. |
"They suggest the worst-case scenarios we hear about are unlikely to happy. We seem to have turned the corner. | "They suggest the worst-case scenarios we hear about are unlikely to happy. We seem to have turned the corner. |
"It is hard to say exactly why, but certainly the message is getting through to some people." | "It is hard to say exactly why, but certainly the message is getting through to some people." |
That is not to say there is not a serious problem that needs addressing - Prof Maryon-Davies is clear there is - but equally it is important to recognise the progress that is being made to identify what works so the issue can be addressed. | That is not to say there is not a serious problem that needs addressing - Prof Maryon-Davies is clear there is - but equally it is important to recognise the progress that is being made to identify what works so the issue can be addressed. |
After all, it has been proven beyond doubt that excess weight increases the risk of a range of diseases from cancers and heart disease to stroke and joint problems. | After all, it has been proven beyond doubt that excess weight increases the risk of a range of diseases from cancers and heart disease to stroke and joint problems. |
And this doesn't just affect the people who are carrying huge amounts of weight. | And this doesn't just affect the people who are carrying huge amounts of weight. |
Moderate obesity can reduce life expectancy by three years, according to the National Obesity Observatory. | Moderate obesity can reduce life expectancy by three years, according to the National Obesity Observatory. |
And it is not all about life or death either. | And it is not all about life or death either. |
Obesity also has an effect on quality of life from living with the after-effects of the diseases caused by obesity to dealing with the restrictions it places on mobility and the increased chance of mental health problems. | Obesity also has an effect on quality of life from living with the after-effects of the diseases caused by obesity to dealing with the restrictions it places on mobility and the increased chance of mental health problems. |
But again it is worth digging deeper when considering risk. | But again it is worth digging deeper when considering risk. |
Obesity is often said to be as bad as smoking. | Obesity is often said to be as bad as smoking. |
And that is true - but only for the morbidly obese. | And that is true - but only for the morbidly obese. |
Both can reduce life expectancy by about eight to 10 years, according to the National Obesity Observatory. | Both can reduce life expectancy by about eight to 10 years, according to the National Obesity Observatory. |
But the numbers falling into the morbidly obese category remain small - 1.7% of men and 3.1% of women. | But the numbers falling into the morbidly obese category remain small - 1.7% of men and 3.1% of women. |
And the future for this group is even more difficult to gauge, with projections ranging from anywhere between little or no rise to a doubling by 2050. | And the future for this group is even more difficult to gauge, with projections ranging from anywhere between little or no rise to a doubling by 2050. |
None of this is aimed at dismissing the risk of obesity. | None of this is aimed at dismissing the risk of obesity. |
It remains a very serious threat to the health of the nation. | It remains a very serious threat to the health of the nation. |
But the prognosis is not necessarily as gloomy as it can sometimes seem. | But the prognosis is not necessarily as gloomy as it can sometimes seem. |