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| Data president? The numbers behind Hollande's alleged affair | Data president? The numbers behind Hollande's alleged affair |
| (7 months later) | |
| Ashleymadison.com is a website for married dating. No, you haven't misunderstood - their slogan "Life is Short. Have an Affair" appears to be supported by "over 23,475,000 anonymous members". | Ashleymadison.com is a website for married dating. No, you haven't misunderstood - their slogan "Life is Short. Have an Affair" appears to be supported by "over 23,475,000 anonymous members". |
| In October 2012, when the site launched in France, they did so with 6mx3m posters that had images of French presidents Mitterrand, Chirac, Sarkozy and Hollande along with the caption "What do they have in common? They should have gone to Ashleymadison.com". | In October 2012, when the site launched in France, they did so with 6mx3m posters that had images of French presidents Mitterrand, Chirac, Sarkozy and Hollande along with the caption "What do they have in common? They should have gone to Ashleymadison.com". |
| Outlandish marketing strategies aside, is there any truth in the question? French politicians certainly have a reputation for it - a long-standing one too - French President numéro 7, Félix Faure, died suddenly from apoplexy while having sex with his mistress. | Outlandish marketing strategies aside, is there any truth in the question? French politicians certainly have a reputation for it - a long-standing one too - French President numéro 7, Félix Faure, died suddenly from apoplexy while having sex with his mistress. |
| We looked at the past 7 French presidents to find out if the stereotypes are justified. | We looked at the past 7 French presidents to find out if the stereotypes are justified. |
| The results show that every president to have held power in France since 1974 has been rumoured to have cheated on their wives. Prior to that, the Republic's 18th and 19th presidents (Charles de Gaulle and Georges Pompidou) appear to have been faithful. | The results show that every president to have held power in France since 1974 has been rumoured to have cheated on their wives. Prior to that, the Republic's 18th and 19th presidents (Charles de Gaulle and Georges Pompidou) appear to have been faithful. |
| Chirac is the only one to have come close to making a public admission of guilt when he wrote "there have been women I have loved a lot, as discreetly as possible". | Chirac is the only one to have come close to making a public admission of guilt when he wrote "there have been women I have loved a lot, as discreetly as possible". |
| The only president to have had his extra-marital relations confirmed was François Mitterrand. When the newspaper Paris-Match obtained images of Mazarine Pingeot, the daughter Mitterrand had conceived with his lover Anne Pingeot, they sought the president's permission before publishing then. They needn't have bothered. The rumours were confirmed two years later to the shock of the French public when his wife invited the former mistress and daughter to attend the president's funeral. | The only president to have had his extra-marital relations confirmed was François Mitterrand. When the newspaper Paris-Match obtained images of Mazarine Pingeot, the daughter Mitterrand had conceived with his lover Anne Pingeot, they sought the president's permission before publishing then. They needn't have bothered. The rumours were confirmed two years later to the shock of the French public when his wife invited the former mistress and daughter to attend the president's funeral. |
| Finding out whether the other rumours are based on fact is about as difficult as estimating the prevalence of adultery in France. Because even in anonymised academic surveys, people will lie. The statistics that are widely cited for France vary massively: anywhere from 3 to 25% for women and 11% to 39% for men will cheat on their partners apparently. | Finding out whether the other rumours are based on fact is about as difficult as estimating the prevalence of adultery in France. Because even in anonymised academic surveys, people will lie. The statistics that are widely cited for France vary massively: anywhere from 3 to 25% for women and 11% to 39% for men will cheat on their partners apparently. |
| Whatever the number, French presidents seem far ahead of the average which lends credibility to the theory that power and infidelity go hand in hand. It's a theory so palpable that dozens of books have been written on the topic - from the 390-page "Sexus Politicus" to "Lust in Translation". | Whatever the number, French presidents seem far ahead of the average which lends credibility to the theory that power and infidelity go hand in hand. It's a theory so palpable that dozens of books have been written on the topic - from the 390-page "Sexus Politicus" to "Lust in Translation". |
| Adulterous regions | Adulterous regions |
| The back of the fag packet calculations don't shy away from making claims of rigour. Compiled by Gleeden (another extra marital site whose logo is a blonde taking a bite out of a red apple) the numbers also claim to show which regions of France are the most likely to cheat. Topping the list is Paris. | The back of the fag packet calculations don't shy away from making claims of rigour. Compiled by Gleeden (another extra marital site whose logo is a blonde taking a bite out of a red apple) the numbers also claim to show which regions of France are the most likely to cheat. Topping the list is Paris. |
| Our rumour research isn't exactly rigorous either so we've looked instead at a couple of genuinely scientific studies on the topic. | Our rumour research isn't exactly rigorous either so we've looked instead at a couple of genuinely scientific studies on the topic. |
| There's a long history of this research. In 1978, a Professor Ray C. Fair from Yale University wrote "A Theory of Extramarital Affairs" for the Journal of Political Economy. Mr Fair used an equation to work out the chances that someone would decide to cheat. | There's a long history of this research. In 1978, a Professor Ray C. Fair from Yale University wrote "A Theory of Extramarital Affairs" for the Journal of Political Economy. Mr Fair used an equation to work out the chances that someone would decide to cheat. |
| We don't understand it either. But his copious analysis led to the conclusion that greater marital happiness and religiosity decreases the probability of adultery. 33 years later, researchers from the University of Indiana reached a similar conclusion. | We don't understand it either. But his copious analysis led to the conclusion that greater marital happiness and religiosity decreases the probability of adultery. 33 years later, researchers from the University of Indiana reached a similar conclusion. |
| They found that the best predictors of infidelity in men were 'importance of religion' and 'happiness in relationship' followed by 'sexual satisfaction in relationship'. In women, happiness was twice as likely to be a factor than religiosity in determining the likelihood they would have an extra-marital affair. Interestingly, older people, those in marriages and from middle income groups were the most likely to have cheated. | They found that the best predictors of infidelity in men were 'importance of religion' and 'happiness in relationship' followed by 'sexual satisfaction in relationship'. In women, happiness was twice as likely to be a factor than religiosity in determining the likelihood they would have an extra-marital affair. Interestingly, older people, those in marriages and from middle income groups were the most likely to have cheated. |
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