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Iran invitation puts Syrian peace talks in jeopardy Syria talks face immediate hurdle of Assad's refusal to step down
(35 minutes later)
International hopes for a resolution to the bloody crisis in Syria will be tested this week as President Bashar al-Assad's government and rebels seeking to overthrow him head for a UN-sponsored peace conference and the first direct talks between the sides since the conflict began nearly three years ago.International hopes for a resolution to the bloody crisis in Syria will be tested this week as President Bashar al-Assad's government and rebels seeking to overthrow him head for a UN-sponsored peace conference and the first direct talks between the sides since the conflict began nearly three years ago.
On Sunday night, the UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon said he had invited Iran to attend the first day of Syria peace talks and that Tehran had pledged to play a "positive and constructive role" if it was asked to participate.On Sunday night, the UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon said he had invited Iran to attend the first day of Syria peace talks and that Tehran had pledged to play a "positive and constructive role" if it was asked to participate.
Ban said he made a late invitation to Iran after intensive talks with Iran's foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, who agreed to attend.Ban said he made a late invitation to Iran after intensive talks with Iran's foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, who agreed to attend.
However there were reports that the Syrian opposition would withdraw from the talks unless Ban retracted the invitation.However there were reports that the Syrian opposition would withdraw from the talks unless Ban retracted the invitation.
"The Syrian Coalition announces that they will withdraw their attendance in Geneva 2 unless Ban Ki-moon retracts Iran's invitation," the Twitter post said, quoting National Coalition spokesman Louay Safi.
Geneva II – which, despite the name, will start in nearby Montreux on Wednesday – is supposed to discuss the creation of a transitional governing body "by mutual consent" of the government and opposition.Geneva II – which, despite the name, will start in nearby Montreux on Wednesday – is supposed to discuss the creation of a transitional governing body "by mutual consent" of the government and opposition.
This language that was first agreed by a conference in Geneva in June 2012, albeit without the participation of either of the Syrian sides to the conflict.This language that was first agreed by a conference in Geneva in June 2012, albeit without the participation of either of the Syrian sides to the conflict.
Assad has insisted throughout that he will not quit, while the opposition says he must go. It remains unclear how that circle can be squared.Assad has insisted throughout that he will not quit, while the opposition says he must go. It remains unclear how that circle can be squared.
Assad was quoted on Sunday as saying he has no intention of stepping down and that his departure will not be on the table at the Geneva II conference.Assad was quoted on Sunday as saying he has no intention of stepping down and that his departure will not be on the table at the Geneva II conference.
"If we wanted to surrender we would have surrendered from the start," the Interfax news agency reported Assad telling visiting Russian MPs. "This issue is not under discussion. Only the Syrian people can decide who should take part in elections.""If we wanted to surrender we would have surrendered from the start," the Interfax news agency reported Assad telling visiting Russian MPs. "This issue is not under discussion. Only the Syrian people can decide who should take part in elections."
The president's office later described the Interfax story as inaccurate but did not elaborate. It was not clear why it objected to this familiar position, which is consistent with previous defiant statements by Assad and other senior Syrian officials.The president's office later described the Interfax story as inaccurate but did not elaborate. It was not clear why it objected to this familiar position, which is consistent with previous defiant statements by Assad and other senior Syrian officials.
The UN mediator, Lakhdar Brahimi, is to chair talks between the Syrian parties in Geneva on Friday, their first face-to-face contact since the uprising began at the height of the Arab spring in March 2011.The UN mediator, Lakhdar Brahimi, is to chair talks between the Syrian parties in Geneva on Friday, their first face-to-face contact since the uprising began at the height of the Arab spring in March 2011.
Estimates of the dead range from 100,000 to 136,000. More than 2 million Syrians are refugees and 9 million are in need of humanitarian aid.Estimates of the dead range from 100,000 to 136,000. More than 2 million Syrians are refugees and 9 million are in need of humanitarian aid.
Jihad Makdissi, the former spokesman of the Syrian foreign ministry, who now lives in exile, said the key was to avoid the collapse of talks.Jihad Makdissi, the former spokesman of the Syrian foreign ministry, who now lives in exile, said the key was to avoid the collapse of talks.
"It will be a good result if they disagree but at least agree to continue meeting," he said. "That would give the US and Russia room to push both sides towards rationality. Humanitarian aid and free access is of course a priority.""It will be a good result if they disagree but at least agree to continue meeting," he said. "That would give the US and Russia room to push both sides towards rationality. Humanitarian aid and free access is of course a priority."
Confidence-building measures such as local ceasefires and prisoner releases could be negotiated to try to maintain impetus, diplomatic sources say.Confidence-building measures such as local ceasefires and prisoner releases could be negotiated to try to maintain impetus, diplomatic sources say.
On Saturday, the western-backed Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC) voted by a narrow margin to take part in the conference after coming under heavy pressure from the US and Britain.On Saturday, the western-backed Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC) voted by a narrow margin to take part in the conference after coming under heavy pressure from the US and Britain.
"We will go to Geneva II without compromising any principles of our revolution," said its president, Ahmed al-Jarba. It would be the "funeral" of the Assad regime, he predicted. The goal was "removing the butcher from power"."We will go to Geneva II without compromising any principles of our revolution," said its president, Ahmed al-Jarba. It would be the "funeral" of the Assad regime, he predicted. The goal was "removing the butcher from power".
Still, the SOC faced fierce opposition from within its own ranks: only 58 members of its 120-strong assembly were in favour of attending and 14 were against, with two abstentions and one blank ballot.Still, the SOC faced fierce opposition from within its own ranks: only 58 members of its 120-strong assembly were in favour of attending and 14 were against, with two abstentions and one blank ballot.
Armed groups on the ground in Syria, especially the increasingly prominent Islamist ones, reject any talks with Assad.Armed groups on the ground in Syria, especially the increasingly prominent Islamist ones, reject any talks with Assad.
Abu Omar, a leading member of the Saudi-backed Islamic Front, said the country's future would be decided "on the ground of heroism, and signed with blood on the frontlines, not in hollow conferences attended by those who don't even represent themselves".Abu Omar, a leading member of the Saudi-backed Islamic Front, said the country's future would be decided "on the ground of heroism, and signed with blood on the frontlines, not in hollow conferences attended by those who don't even represent themselves".
But the head of the western-backed Supreme Military Council, General Salim Idriss, said he supported "a solution that guarantees a political transition of power".But the head of the western-backed Supreme Military Council, General Salim Idriss, said he supported "a solution that guarantees a political transition of power".
Munzer Aqbiq, Jarba's spokesman, said representatives of the Free Syrian Army would form part of the opposition delegation, likely to be 30-strong.Munzer Aqbiq, Jarba's spokesman, said representatives of the Free Syrian Army would form part of the opposition delegation, likely to be 30-strong.
Outside the SOC, very few opposition supporters believe progress is possible. "I think Geneva is dead in the water," said a prominent businessman from Homs, now living abroad. "Short of last-minute guarantees from the Americans, how can it work? It's heading for a fiasco."Outside the SOC, very few opposition supporters believe progress is possible. "I think Geneva is dead in the water," said a prominent businessman from Homs, now living abroad. "Short of last-minute guarantees from the Americans, how can it work? It's heading for a fiasco."
John Kerry, the US secretary of state, hailed the SOC decision as "a courageous vote in the interests of all the Syrian people who have suffered so horribly under the brutality of the Assad regime and a civil war without end".John Kerry, the US secretary of state, hailed the SOC decision as "a courageous vote in the interests of all the Syrian people who have suffered so horribly under the brutality of the Assad regime and a civil war without end".
William Hague, Britain's foreign secretary, said: "Any mutually agreed settlement means that Assad can play no role in Syria's future."William Hague, Britain's foreign secretary, said: "Any mutually agreed settlement means that Assad can play no role in Syria's future."
Overall, Assad looks in a far stronger position than the rebels, who get military and financial help from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states and largely political support from the west.Overall, Assad looks in a far stronger position than the rebels, who get military and financial help from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states and largely political support from the west.
The Syrian president enjoys the firm backing of Russia, which has defended him politically at the UN and supplied him with weapons throughout the crisis. Iran, his principal regional ally, has also been a staunch friend, as has Hezbollah in Lebanon.The Syrian president enjoys the firm backing of Russia, which has defended him politically at the UN and supplied him with weapons throughout the crisis. Iran, his principal regional ally, has also been a staunch friend, as has Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Renewed talk of the Syrian leader's fate prompted a sardonic comment from one witty observer of the crisis. "Bashar al-Assad doesn't want to give up the presidency because it has sentimental value," tweeted @KarlreMarks. "It was left to him by his father."Renewed talk of the Syrian leader's fate prompted a sardonic comment from one witty observer of the crisis. "Bashar al-Assad doesn't want to give up the presidency because it has sentimental value," tweeted @KarlreMarks. "It was left to him by his father."