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Unemployment: Fall in jobless total is second biggest on record, renewing speculation about rise in interest rates | Unemployment: Fall in jobless total is second biggest on record, renewing speculation about rise in interest rates |
(about 3 hours later) | |
Unemployment has fallen to its lowest figure for almost five years, but the drop is unlikely to trigger an early rise in interest rates. | |
The number of jobless dropped by 167,000 in | |
the three months to November to 2.32m, the second biggest fall on record. The unemployment rate fell to 7.1 per cent, close to the seven per cent at which | |
the Bank of England will consider an increase in interest rates. | |
However, the Bank is expected to “move the | |
goalposts” next month by changing its strategy. The threshold may be cut | |
to 6.5 per cent and other factors may be taken into account. | |
Minutes of the last meeting of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee accepted that unemployment would | |
reach the threshold "materially earlier" than expected. With | |
inflation back to the Government’s two per cent target, the committee “saw no | |
immediate need to raise Bank Rate even if the seven per cent threshold were to be | |
reached in the near future. Consequently when the | |
time did come to raise Bank Rate, it would be appropriate to do so only | |
gradually." | |
Ministers hope that any interest and | |
mortgage rate rises will be delayed until after the general election in May | |
next year and some City analysts predict their wish will be granted. Howard Archer, chief UK economist at City forecaster IGS Global Insight, said: | |
“We believe the odds remain strongly in favour of interest rates staying at 0.5 | |
per cent all through 2014. While rates will probably start rising in 2015, this | |
may still not happen until around the middle of the year.” | |
Dr John | |
Philpott, director of The Jobs Economist, said: "It's now inevitable | |
that unemployment will soon fall below the Bank of England's | |
forward guidance rate of seven per cent. However, the weakness of pay growth | |
suggests there is still a considerable amount of slack in the labour market which | |
for the time being remains an inflation free zone. Better news on jobs is no | |
reason for an early rise in UK interest rates." | |
Yesterday’s figures showed | |
that average wage growth has remained at 0.9 per cent - well below the two per | |
cent level of inflation. The Bank is under pressure to consider using pay | |
growth as an additional threshold for its policy on rates. | |
Ministers welcomed the faster than expected | |
fall in unemployment. The quarterly fall of 167,000 is the biggest since the | |
autumn of 1997 and the second largest since records began in 1971. The number of people in work reached a record high of | |
just over 30m, giving an employment rate of 72.1 per cent, an increase of 0.5 | |
per cent over the three months to November. The number claiming Jobseeker’s | |
Allowance in December fell by 24,000 to 1.25m. | |
The Bank of England says a figure of 7 per cent will not automatically trigger an interest rate rise | The Bank of England says a figure of 7 per cent will not automatically trigger an interest rate rise |
David Cameron and Ed Miliband | |
clashed over the figures in the Commons, after the Labour leader accused the | |
Prime Minister of being “complacent” about a fall in average wages of more than £1,600 since the Coalition was | |
formed. Mr Cameron argued that this figure did not take account of | |
increases in the personal tax allowance, insisting that take home pay rose | |
faster than inflation in 2012-13. He hailed the biggest ever quarterly increase | |
in the number of people in work. | |
But Mr Miliband said it was “scandalous” that a | |
majority of 13 million people living in poverty are in work rather than jobless. | |
Mr Cameron blamed the slow growth in pay on “the | |
mess” left by Labour and “the longest and deepest recession in living memory.” He told Mr Miliband: "You are like an arsonist who goes around setting fire after | |
fire and then complains when the fire brigade aren't putting out the fires fast | |
enough.” | |
Mr Miliband replied that Mr Cameron “cannot be | |
the solution to the cost of living crisis because he just does not understand | |
the problem". |