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Syria peace talks: low expectations have not been disappointed Syria peace talks get nowhere slowly
(about 1 hour later)
Expectations were low in advance of the conference but this was no Expectations were low in advance of the conference but this was no
diplomatic trick designed to produce a surprise “triumph”. Prospects fordiplomatic trick designed to produce a surprise “triumph”. Prospects for
success genuinely range from the slender to the non-existent. Still, success genuinely range from the slender to the non-existent. Still,
just keeping the parties talking is an achievement – even if the contact is just keeping the parties talking is an achievement – even if the contact is
indirect, via the UN mediator, Lakhdar Brahimi. These are face-to-face indirect, via the UN mediator, Lakhdar Brahimi. These are face-to-face
talks. But there has been no banter or handshakes.talks. But there has been no banter or handshakes.
The negotiations are expected to resume around 10 February, diplomatsThe negotiations are expected to resume around 10 February, diplomats
say, after trilateral meetings between Brahimi, US and Russian say, after trilateral meetings between Brahimi, US and Russian
officials in line with his repeated appeal to those who have influence officials in line with his repeated appeal to those who have influence
with the warring parties to use it positively.with the warring parties to use it positively.
Brahimi has made clear every day that little has been achieved in Brahimi has made clear every day that little has been achieved in
room 16 of the Palais des Nations, the UN’s sprawling Geneva HQ. Still, room 16 of the Palais des Nations, the UN’s sprawling Geneva HQ. Still,
the veteran Algerian diplomat believes the “ice has been broken” and the veteran Algerian diplomat believes the “ice has been broken” and
that having a stuttering peace process is better than not having one – that having a stuttering peace process is better than not having one –
even as the war, suffering and destruction go on. Opposition sources even as the war, suffering and destruction go on. Opposition sources
reported 433 civilians dead including 76 children duringreported 433 civilians dead including 76 children during
the talks so far. the talks so far.
In Thursday morning’s session the two teams agreed to observe a In Thursday morning’s session the two teams agreed to observe a
minute’s silence to remember the victims of “terrorism” – but quickly minute’s silence to remember the victims of “terrorism” – but quickly
blamed each other for perpetrating the violence. Then the blamed each other for perpetrating the violence. Then the
representatives of the Syrian opposition coalition (SOC) produced representatives of the Syrian opposition coalition (SOC) produced
documents about torture and atrocities by the government, which duly documents about torture and atrocities by the government, which duly
accused them of treason. The afternoon session was cancelled.accused them of treason. The afternoon session was cancelled.
Hopes for confidence-building measures to create a positive Hopes for confidence-building measures to create a positive
atmosphere were dashed after a prematurely described “breakthrough” dealatmosphere were dashed after a prematurely described “breakthrough” deal
to allow women and children to leave the besieged rebel-held old city to allow women and children to leave the besieged rebel-held old city
of Homs failed to materialise. Nor was a convoy of aid trucks allowed toof Homs failed to materialise. Nor was a convoy of aid trucks allowed to
enter the area – to accusations that Assad’s forces are trying to enter the area – to accusations that Assad’s forces are trying to
“starve out” a 3,000-strong rebel enclave. Rebel mistrust, based on “starve out” a 3,000-strong rebel enclave. Rebel mistrust, based on
bitter experience, was fuelled by a government demand for lists of men bitter experience, was fuelled by a government demand for lists of men
in the area. In a conflict that has already killed an estimated 130,000 in the area. In a conflict that has already killed an estimated 130,000
people there are victims aplenty for both sides to mourn.people there are victims aplenty for both sides to mourn.
The hardest part of the talks was always going to be about Syria’s The hardest part of the talks was always going to be about Syria’s
future political arrangements. The goal, laid down by the Geneva I future political arrangements. The goal, laid down by the Geneva I
communique in June 2012, is to create a “transitional governing body”. communique in June 2012, is to create a “transitional governing body”.
That is supposed to happen by “mutual consent”. Since Assad insists he That is supposed to happen by “mutual consent”. Since Assad insists he
will not step down and the opposition is adamant that he must go it is will not step down and the opposition is adamant that he must go it is
unclear how that circle can be squared. Asked to answer that question, unclear how that circle can be squared. Asked to answer that question,
Brahimi quipped engagingly: “Ideas – I’ll take them with great Brahimi quipped engagingly: “Ideas – I’ll take them with great
pleasure.”pleasure.”
No one can accuse the Damascus government of sending mixed signals. No one can accuse the Damascus government of sending mixed signals.
Tishrin, a state newspaper, declared: “The government delegation did notTishrin, a state newspaper, declared: “The government delegation did not
go to Geneva to hand power to those who have conspired against the go to Geneva to hand power to those who have conspired against the
people.” Omran al- Zoabi, the information minister, said that the idea people.” Omran al- Zoabi, the information minister, said that the idea
that Assad would step down was “straight out of Alice in Wonderland”.that Assad would step down was “straight out of Alice in Wonderland”.
Both sides have been more active outside the Palais des Nations thanBoth sides have been more active outside the Palais des Nations than
inside it, broadcasting their irreconcileable narratives to the TV inside it, broadcasting their irreconcileable narratives to the TV
crews camped outside. “It’s a game of international messaging,” said onecrews camped outside. “It’s a game of international messaging,” said one
opposition adviser. “It’s about shaping public opinion, that’s what opposition adviser. “It’s about shaping public opinion, that’s what
matters at this stage.” Buthaina Shaaban, a Shakespeare scholar who is matters at this stage.” Buthaina Shaaban, a Shakespeare scholar who is
Assad’s media adviser, has been a steely advocate for him, emphasising Assad’s media adviser, has been a steely advocate for him, emphasising
the fight against “terrorism” – the regime’s blanket term for all the fight against “terrorism” – the regime’s blanket term for all
rebels. Rafif Jouejati, the daughter of a former Syrian ambassador to rebels. Rafif Jouejati, the daughter of a former Syrian ambassador to
the US, makes the case for the opposition in fluent American English the US, makes the case for the opposition in fluent American English
soundbytes.soundbytes.
The good news, such as it is, is that neither side wants to be firstThe good news, such as it is, is that neither side wants to be first
to slam the door and will be back in Geneva after a break. Neither to slam the door and will be back in Geneva after a break. Neither
wishes to be blamed for the collapse of a process that the internationalwishes to be blamed for the collapse of a process that the international
community has invested in so heavily – largely because it has not got a community has invested in so heavily – largely because it has not got a
better idea how to stop the war, soon to enter its fourth year. If better idea how to stop the war, soon to enter its fourth year. If
talks continue, the argument goes, something may change. As John Kerry talks continue, the argument goes, something may change. As John Kerry
put it at last week’s grand launch in nearby Montreux: “Opening positions put it at last week’s grand launch in nearby Montreux: “Opening positions
are opening positions. Let’s see what happens.” The unspoken hope of theare opening positions. Let’s see what happens.” The unspoken hope of the
US secretary of state, and others, is that the Russians will ditch Assad US secretary of state, and others, is that the Russians will ditch Assad
and allow a transition to take place without him. and allow a transition to take place without him.
The bad news is that some fear Geneva risks turning into a talking The bad news is that some fear Geneva risks turning into a talking
shop – an endless process that fails to produce peace while the shop – an endless process that fails to produce peace while the
situation gets worse. “The regime is playing theatre,” argued Louay situation gets worse. “The regime is playing theatre,” argued Louay
Safi, an opposition spokesman. “It wants to give the impression of wanting aSafi, an opposition spokesman. “It wants to give the impression of wanting a
political solution but the situation on the ground reflects its political solution but the situation on the ground reflects its
intentions. We look at deeds.” Yet as Brahimi put it, with apparently intentions. We look at deeds.” Yet as Brahimi put it, with apparently
infinite patience: “We are doing what the situation allows, what the infinite patience: “We are doing what the situation allows, what the
market can bear.”market can bear.”