This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/08/spinmeisters-desperately-trying-not-to-trip-up-on-a-footnote-in-election-history

The article has changed 2 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
Spinmeisters desperately trying not to trip up on a footnote in election history Spinmeisters desperately trying not to trip up on a footnote in election history
(7 months later)
The Griffith byelection has the political spinmeisters working up a sweat.The Griffith byelection has the political spinmeisters working up a sweat.
Whichever Whichever way it went, the Coalition’s whopping majority meant the poll in the inner Brisbane seat was never going to make a difference to the result of any vote in the house of representatives.
way it went, the Coalition’s whopping majority meant the poll in the
inner Brisbane seat was never going to make a difference to the result
of any vote in the house of representatives.
But a byelection this early in the term of a government can have an impact on what is sometimes loosely termed “the narrative”.But a byelection this early in the term of a government can have an impact on what is sometimes loosely termed “the narrative”.
The The Abbott government is still defining itself in the minds of the electorate, heck, in many ways it’s still defining its policy directions in its own mind. National opinion polls have had Labor leading the coalition by 53% to 47% in two-party preferred terms. A big swing against the Coalition would have added to the perception that the government had started badly, just as Tony Abbott wanted to use the start of the parliamentary year to get back on the front foot.
Abbott government is still defining itself in the minds of the On the other hand, the pundits, the bookmakers and historical precedent (a government hasn’t taken a seat at a byelection since 1920, as the Coalition repeatedly reminded us in the lead-up to the poll) all raised expectations of a Labor win.
electorate, heck, in many ways it’s still defining its policy directions If Labor had lost Griffith it would have been a disaster for Bill Shorten, who had invested a lot and campaigned heavily with his candidate Terri Butler.
in its own mind. National opinion polls have had Labor leading the The “expectations management” started well out from the poll. Inoculating against a likely loss, the Coalition insisted federal issues weren’t really cutting through at all. “It’s all about getting the best possible local member here in Griffith,” Abbott said.
coalition by 53% to 47% in two-party preferred terms. A big swing But Labor insisted it was a “referendum” on “harsh” budget cuts implemented by the state Liberal National party government and warning there was more to come from the federal Coalition. As election day drew closer, nervous Labor strategists started some inoculation of their own, emphasising how the electorate was “gentrifying” (presumably not all that much since last September’s election day), and how Liberal candidate Bill Glasson, who stood against Kevin Rudd in September, had started with the advantage of already being well known as a candidate.
against the Coalition would have added to the perception that the Attorney general George Brandis insisted that if Labor didn’t get a 5% swing in its favour (the average swing to an opposition in a byelection) it should be interpreted as a catastrophe for Bill Shorten. The fact Labor suffered a small swing against it, meant that even if the ALP won, the biggest loser of the night was “Electricity Bill” Shorten, he said.
government had started badly, just as Tony Abbott wanted to use the Meanwhile Labor spinners were insisting that its vote had picked up in the final week because voters had really responded to Shorten’s message about “fighting for Aussie jobs” – even though Griffith is not, by any stretch, a blue-collar electorate.
start of the parliamentary year to get back on the front foot.
On
the other hand, the pundits, the bookmakers and historical precedent (a
government hasn’t taken a seat at a byelection since 1920, as the
Coalition repeatedly reminded us in the lead-up to the poll) all raised
expectations of a Labor win.
If
Labor had lost Griffith it would have been a disaster for Bill Shorten,
who had invested a lot and campaigned heavily with his candidate Terri
Butler.
The
“expectations management” started well out from the poll. Inoculating
against a likely loss, the Coalition insisted federal issues weren’t
really cutting through at all. “It’s all about getting the best possible local member here in Griffith,” Abbott said.
But
Labor insisted it was a “referendum” on “harsh” budget cuts implemented
by the state Liberal National party government and warning there was
more to come from the federal Coalition. As election day drew closer,
nervous Labor strategists started some inoculation of their own,
emphasising how the electorate was “gentrifying” (presumably not all
that much since last September’s election day), and how Liberal
candidate Bill Glasson, who stood against Kevin Rudd in September, had
started with the advantage of already being well known as a candidate.
Attorney
general George Brandis insisted that if Labor didn’t get a 5% swing in
its favour (the average swing to an opposition in a byelection) it
should be interpreted as a catastrophe for Bill Shorten. The fact Labor
suffered a small swing against it, meant that even if the ALP won, the
biggest loser of the night was “Electricity Bill” Shorten, he said.
Meanwhile
Labor spinners were insisting that its vote had picked up in the final
week because voters had really responded to Shorten’s message about
“fighting for Aussie jobs” – even though Griffith is not, by any
stretch, a blue-collar electorate.
By the end of the night, most observers believed Labor was set to win with a small swing.By the end of the night, most observers believed Labor was set to win with a small swing.
In In other words, cutting out the spin, Griffith voters haven’t shifted all that much since last September’s election. Maybe some were mad that former prime minister Kevin Rudd resigned just a few months after they re-elected him, maybe some were impressed by Glasson’s tenacity, and maybe, just maybe some were influenced by federal factors.
other words, cutting out the spin, Griffith voters haven’t shifted all But in the end this byelection is likely to slip into the long list that have little long-term impact and virtually no one remembers.
that much since last September’s election. Maybe some were mad that
former prime minister Kevin Rudd resigned just a few months after they
re-elected him, maybe some were impressed by Glasson’s tenacity, and
maybe, just maybe some were influenced by federal factors.
But
in the end this byelection is likely to slip into the long list that
have little long-term impact and virtually no one remembers.