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Kerry in Seoul to confer on North Korea, ahead of China visit Kerry in Seoul to confer on North Korea, ahead of China visit
(about 2 hours later)
SEOUL -- U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met with South Korean leaders on Thursday to discuss how to deter North Korea’s continuing development of nuclear arms. But how exactly to accomplish that after decades of frustrated U.S. efforts remains a vexing problem with no immediate answers. SEOUL -- U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met with South Korean leaders on Thursday to reinvigorate efforts to deter North Korea from pursuing nuclear arms. But how exactly the U.S. can accomplish that after decades of frustrated efforts remains a vexing problem with no immediate answers.
U.S. officials said Kerry plans to first coordinate with the South Koreans, then urge Chinese leaders to increase their pressure on North Korea during a Beijing stop Friday. U.S. officials said Kerry planned to first coordinate with the South Koreans, then push Chinese leaders to increase their pressure on North Korea during a Beijing stop on Friday.
A senior State Department official traveling with Kerry described the trip as “an effort to translate ‘denuclearization’ from a noun to a verb.” The official, who was not authorized to be quoted by name, said Kerry wants to “enlist greater and greater levels of Chinese cooperation in actually helping to achieve the goal of denuclearization, not just talking about it.”A senior State Department official traveling with Kerry described the trip as “an effort to translate ‘denuclearization’ from a noun to a verb.” The official, who was not authorized to be quoted by name, said Kerry wants to “enlist greater and greater levels of Chinese cooperation in actually helping to achieve the goal of denuclearization, not just talking about it.”
The Asia tour comes at a difficult juncture for U.S. policy in the region.The Asia tour comes at a difficult juncture for U.S. policy in the region.
Since Kim Jong Il’s 2011 death and the elevation of his son Kim Jung Eun, North Korea has issued a string of bellicose rhetoric and provocative actions, including a nuclear test last year that drew international condemnation. Analysts say signs in recent weeks suggest the renegade country may be on the verge of new missile and nuclear tests.Since Kim Jong Il’s 2011 death and the elevation of his son Kim Jung Eun, North Korea has issued a string of bellicose rhetoric and provocative actions, including a nuclear test last year that drew international condemnation. Analysts say signs in recent weeks suggest the renegade country may be on the verge of new missile and nuclear tests.
At the same time, Japan and South Korea -- the United States’ two strongest allies in containing North Korea -- have been heatedly disputing territorial and historical claims.At the same time, Japan and South Korea -- the United States’ two strongest allies in containing North Korea -- have been heatedly disputing territorial and historical claims.
Meanwhile, the overarching U.S. policy for the region – rolled out two years as a U.S. “pivot” or “rebalancing” toward Asia after longstanding focus on the Middle East – has drawn skepticism from allies on its substance and ire from China, which has portrayed it as a thinly veiled attempt to contain its rising power. “It is up to Japan and [South Korea] to put history behind them and move the relationship forward,” Kerry said at a news conference Thursday. He urged the two sides to overcome historical issues and focus on the “issues of enormous current, pressing concern that deal with security that are relevant in terms of today and not just history.”
China remains the key to pushing North Korea toward denuclearization. Long seen as a key factor propping up the Pyongyang regime, it has maintained stalwart support for North Korea for years — watering down international sanctions and sending desperately needed aid. At that same press conference, South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se made clear how difficult that would be, criticizing Japanese leaders for “historically inaccurate remarks” and “revisionist history,” and putting all the blame on Japan.
But early last year, after North Korea ignored its pleas to avoid the nuclear test, China began showing signs of frustration. U.S. officials have said they were encouraged by the signs – from tougher government statements to editorials debating China’s longstanding support of Pyongyang. “As long as these remarks continue, it will be hard to build trust between the two countries,” Yun said.
“China’s attitude to North Korea is now more dynamic compared to the past when it was always friendly towards Pyongyang whatever it did. It’s a substantial change,” said Wang Junsheng, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. China remains the key to pushing North Korea toward denuclearization. Long seen as a key factor propping up the Pyongyang regime, China has maintained stalwart support for North Korea for years — watering down international sanctions and sending desperately needed aid.
But China — which values stability above all else — is unlikely to abandon North Korea altogether anytime soon. And such outspokenness has died down, especially in recent weeks following North Korean leader Kim Jong Eun’s dramatic purge of his uncle Jang Song Thaek. Kim’s most prominent advisor was executed and derided as “despicable human scum” by the government. But early last year, after North Korea ignored its pleas to avoid the nuclear test, China began showing signs of frustration. Kerry and other U.S. officials said they were encouraged by the signs – from tougher government statements to editorials debating China’s longstanding support of Pyongyang.
“China has responded. China has done positive things,” said Kerry, but he said more is needed and vowed to ask Chinese “to use all the means at its disposal.”
“No country has a greater potential to influence North Korea behavior than China," he said. "All of the refined fuel that goes in to move every automobile and airplane in North Korea comes from China. All of the fundamental, rudimentary banking structure it has with world passes through China. Significant trade and assistance goes from China to North Korea.”
But China — which values stability above all else — is unlikely to abandon North Korea altogether anytime soon. And much of its outspokenness against Pyongyang from last year has died down, especially following Kim Jong Eun’s dramatic purge of his uncle Jang Song Thaek. Jang, Kim’s most prominent advisor, was executed in December and derided as “despicable human scum” by the regime.
“It’s been really quiet ever since then. I think the Chinese are as worried by the shake up as everyone else. They’re in wait and see mode,” said Victor Cha, a Georgetown University professor and former national security official under George W. Bush.“It’s been really quiet ever since then. I think the Chinese are as worried by the shake up as everyone else. They’re in wait and see mode,” said Victor Cha, a Georgetown University professor and former national security official under George W. Bush.
But seeing an opening between U.S. allies, Beijing has moved quickly to capitalize on the squabbles between South Korea and Japan. But China has moved quickly on the deepening rift between U.S. allies, looking to capitalize on the squabbles between South Korea and Japan.
“Beijing has made a major effort to court [South Korea]. And South Korea has been eager to be courted under a new president who has made improvement of [South Korean-Chinese] relations a major priority,” said Evans Revere, a former State Department official. “Beijing has made a major effort to court [South Korea]. And South Korea has been eager to be courted,” said Evans Revere, a former State Department official for Asia.
One vivid example of that is an exhibit unveiled last month praising Ahn Jung-geun, who is considered a hero in South Korea for assassinating a prominent Japanese colonial leader more than a century ago.
Visiting the exhibit gave South Korea’s ambassador to China a chance to stick a finger in Japan’s eye – a payback of sorts after Japan’s prime minister recently visited a shrine that honors war criminals from World War II.
“There is a risk that if the estrangement lasts much longer, Japan and South Korea will be unable to resume high-level diplomatic contacts,” said Bonnie Glazer, a senior Asia advisor at Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Kerry was briefed by South Korean leaders Thursday on a rare diplomatic exchange between North and South Korea that happened the day before he arrived in Seoul.
For the first time in seven years, both sides held high-level talks on their armed border. The exchange has raised some hope of a thaw in the icy relations of late. But analysts warn that such progress may be upset by upcoming joint military drills later this month between the United States and South Korea, which have traditionally drawn angry reaction from Pyongyang.