Bill Shorten's popularity slides in poll as Coalition regains pre-election favour

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/17/bill-shortens-popularity-slides-in-poll-as-coalition-regains-pre-election-favour

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The Labor leader, Bill Shorten, has suffered an 11-point decline in his approval rating in the latest Nielsen poll commissioned by Fairfax Media, as the Abbott government regains an election-winning lead over the opposition.

Numerous published polls pointed to a post-election popularity slump for the Coalition government, but the new Nielsen survey gives Tony Abbott’s team a 52% to 48% lead on a two-party-preferred basis – a reversal of standings in the previous poll in November.

The poll of 1400 voters, taken between 13 and 15 February, follows the first sitting of parliament of the year when the government sought to focus on alleged union corruption and accused Shorten of backing a “protection racket” by refusing to support a royal commission into the matter.

Shorten, who has argued a police taskforce is best placed to investigate and trigger successful prosecution, has attempted to place job creation and employment security at the centre of the political debate. He accused Abbott of lacking a jobs plan after Toyota announced last Monday that it would cease manufacturing in Australia in 2017, and labour force figures showed unemployment had risen to 6%.

The Nielsen poll, published on Monday, shows Labor’s primary vote has dropped four points to 33% while the Coalition’s rose by three to 44% and support for the Greens edged one point higher to 12%.

Based on preference flows at the last election, this translates to a Coalition two-party-preferred lead of 52% to 48% – a reversal of Labor’s 52% to 48% lead in the previous Nielsen poll. The Coalition’s lead was 51% to 49% when voters were asked to nominate their second preference, according to the Fairfax report. At the September election, the Coalition ended six years of Labor rule by snaring 53.5% of the vote after preferences.

The Nielsen poll, which has a stated margin of error of 2.5%, indicates a large shift in Shorten’s approval ratings.

Approval of Shorten dropped 11 points to 40%, while disapproval rose 10 points to 40%. Abbott’s approval dropped two points to 45% and disapproval rose one point to 47%.

In the preferred prime minister stakes, Abbott is favoured by 49% while Shorten is backed by 39%.

When Nielsen asked respondents about the establishment of a royal commission into claims of corruption in trade unions, 67% offered their support while 23% opposed the move, announced by the Abbott government last Monday. Unions, Labor and the Greens had portrayed the inquiry as a politically motivated “witch hunt”.

But voters were much more sympathetic to union movement’s argument against a “race to the bottom” on workers’ conditions. Asked whether workers’ entitlements and conditions needed to be reduced to make Australian companies more competitive, 58% disagreed and 37% agreed.