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| Crimea: Next flashpoint in Ukraine's crisis? | Crimea: Next flashpoint in Ukraine's crisis? |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| In fleeing revolutionary Kiev on Friday, Ukraine's now ex-President Viktor Yanukovych chose to fly to his stronghold in the south-east of the country before heading to Crimea in the deep south. | In fleeing revolutionary Kiev on Friday, Ukraine's now ex-President Viktor Yanukovych chose to fly to his stronghold in the south-east of the country before heading to Crimea in the deep south. |
| Media reports suggest he may have been preparing a yacht to flee by sea to Russia - perhaps with the help of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which has a naval base on the strategically placed peninsula. | Media reports suggest he may have been preparing a yacht to flee by sea to Russia - perhaps with the help of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which has a naval base on the strategically placed peninsula. |
| This fuelled fears that the majority ethnic Russian Crimea, which enjoys autonomy in Ukraine, could become the next flashpoint in the ongoing political crisis. | This fuelled fears that the majority ethnic Russian Crimea, which enjoys autonomy in Ukraine, could become the next flashpoint in the ongoing political crisis. |
| Crimea's post of president has been abolished, and instead it has a presidential representative from Kiev. The local government is led by a prime minister appointed by Ukraine's parliament. | |
| Tensions have been rising on the peninsula in recent days, with pro-Moscow politicians and activists organising rallies and urging Russia to help defend the territory from advancing "fascists" from the rest of Ukraine. | |
| 'Perfect chance' | 'Perfect chance' |
| Over the weekend, a crowd tore down a Ukrainian national flag in the western Crimean town of Kerch, replacing it with the Russian tricolor. | Over the weekend, a crowd tore down a Ukrainian national flag in the western Crimean town of Kerch, replacing it with the Russian tricolor. |
| And only last week, the speaker of the Crimean parliament, Volodymyr Konstantynov, warned he did not rule out separating from Kiev if the situation in the country deteriorated further. | And only last week, the speaker of the Crimean parliament, Volodymyr Konstantynov, warned he did not rule out separating from Kiev if the situation in the country deteriorated further. |
| There are concerns that the current turmoil could offer the Kremlin a perfect chance to assert its claim on Crimea, a territory which many Russians believe is theirs anyway and has only come under Kiev by a bizarre twist of fate. | There are concerns that the current turmoil could offer the Kremlin a perfect chance to assert its claim on Crimea, a territory which many Russians believe is theirs anyway and has only come under Kiev by a bizarre twist of fate. |
| Crimea was transferred from Russia to Ukraine in 1954 by the then Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, himself an ethnic Ukrainian. | Crimea was transferred from Russia to Ukraine in 1954 by the then Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, himself an ethnic Ukrainian. |
| Before the Soviet times, it was known as "the playground of Russian tsars" because of its warm climate and the sea. | Before the Soviet times, it was known as "the playground of Russian tsars" because of its warm climate and the sea. |
| Russian President Vladimir Putin has himself in recent months raised eyebrows in Ukraine and the West, when he seemed to question the territorial integrity of Ukraine. | Russian President Vladimir Putin has himself in recent months raised eyebrows in Ukraine and the West, when he seemed to question the territorial integrity of Ukraine. |
| True, the Kremlin can count on a pro-Russian sentiment in Crimea and at the Black Sea Fleet with its base in Sevastopol - the "city of Russian glory" as it has been referred to by many Russians since the Crimean War in the 19th Century. | True, the Kremlin can count on a pro-Russian sentiment in Crimea and at the Black Sea Fleet with its base in Sevastopol - the "city of Russian glory" as it has been referred to by many Russians since the Crimean War in the 19th Century. |
| Unlikely alliance | Unlikely alliance |
| But the territory is not as staunchly pro-Russian as it may seem at first glance, and several key factors may come into play. | But the territory is not as staunchly pro-Russian as it may seem at first glance, and several key factors may come into play. |
| Although ethnic Russians are still a majority (58.5%), there are also a significant Ukrainian (24.4%) and Crimean Tatar populations (12.1%). | Although ethnic Russians are still a majority (58.5%), there are also a significant Ukrainian (24.4%) and Crimean Tatar populations (12.1%). |
| And it is the latter two which have formed an unlikely alliance, resisting any secessionist attempts. | And it is the latter two which have formed an unlikely alliance, resisting any secessionist attempts. |
| They have their separate reasons to distrust Moscow. | They have their separate reasons to distrust Moscow. |
| Many ethnic Ukrainians have natural loyalties towards Kiev and are happy with the territory's status quo. | Many ethnic Ukrainians have natural loyalties towards Kiev and are happy with the territory's status quo. |
| Meanwhile, the Muslim Tatars still remember the horrors of the mass deportation under Stalin in 1944 on the pretext of mass collaboration with the Nazis during World War II. | Meanwhile, the Muslim Tatars still remember the horrors of the mass deportation under Stalin in 1944 on the pretext of mass collaboration with the Nazis during World War II. |
| The Tatars' national leader, Mustafa Jemilev, has warned they will resist any attempts to transfer Crimea to Moscow. | The Tatars' national leader, Mustafa Jemilev, has warned they will resist any attempts to transfer Crimea to Moscow. |
| And then there is mass corruption. | And then there is mass corruption. |
| In 2011, the last time I visited Crimea, I was shocked by how many people there had a feeling of outrage towards what they described as corrupt authorities on every level. | In 2011, the last time I visited Crimea, I was shocked by how many people there had a feeling of outrage towards what they described as corrupt authorities on every level. |
| Cab drivers, fruit sellers, hotel managers - ethnic Russian, Ukrainian or Crimean Tatar - everyone was disgusted. | Cab drivers, fruit sellers, hotel managers - ethnic Russian, Ukrainian or Crimean Tatar - everyone was disgusted. |
| The hope is that this could gradually start to change with "people power" and the pledge of war on corruption spreading from Kiev's Maidan. | The hope is that this could gradually start to change with "people power" and the pledge of war on corruption spreading from Kiev's Maidan. |
| Many also believe that a promised association with the EU will help root out corruption. | Many also believe that a promised association with the EU will help root out corruption. |
| Finally, Ukraine is not Georgia, where the Russians fought a war in 2008, managing to wrestle South Ossetia and Abkhazia out of Tbilisi's control. | Finally, Ukraine is not Georgia, where the Russians fought a war in 2008, managing to wrestle South Ossetia and Abkhazia out of Tbilisi's control. |
| Despite the present revolutionary chaos, Ukraine - Europe's second biggest country (by area) - still has capable armed forces, particularly its anti-aircraft defences. | Despite the present revolutionary chaos, Ukraine - Europe's second biggest country (by area) - still has capable armed forces, particularly its anti-aircraft defences. |
| One may also count on many thousands of battle-hardened Maidan activists joining in to defend the country. | One may also count on many thousands of battle-hardened Maidan activists joining in to defend the country. |
| And facing growing Western warnings, President Putin may think twice whether Crimea - as well as Ukraine's south-eastern regions - is worth the fight. | And facing growing Western warnings, President Putin may think twice whether Crimea - as well as Ukraine's south-eastern regions - is worth the fight. |