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Ukraine crisis deepens: commentary and analysis on Russia in Crimea Ukraine crisis deepens: commentary and analysis on Russia in Crimea
(6 months later)
As Russian forces continued to seep into Ukraine this weekend, covertly, overtly and with the authorization of president Vladimir Putin and the Russian parliament, last week’s intimations of war have turned into a slow-motion invasion on the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians and “normalizing” the situation that western nations so recklessly fueled in Kiev. At least that’s the party line.As Russian forces continued to seep into Ukraine this weekend, covertly, overtly and with the authorization of president Vladimir Putin and the Russian parliament, last week’s intimations of war have turned into a slow-motion invasion on the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians and “normalizing” the situation that western nations so recklessly fueled in Kiev. At least that’s the party line.
How did we get here?How did we get here?
Last week, Viktor Yanukovych, pressured by a revolution boiling over in the country’s capital, disappeared. Putin announced surprise military exercises in the Black Sea and along Russia’s western border. Yanukovych, eventually deposed by parliament (his own party abandoned him), surfaced in Russia and denounced the “coup” that ousted him.Last week, Viktor Yanukovych, pressured by a revolution boiling over in the country’s capital, disappeared. Putin announced surprise military exercises in the Black Sea and along Russia’s western border. Yanukovych, eventually deposed by parliament (his own party abandoned him), surfaced in Russia and denounced the “coup” that ousted him.
Armed gangs – almost indisputably backed by Russia and sometimes admitted Russian soldiers – seized government buildings and airports in the Crimean peninsula, and pro-Russian demonstrations popped up across eastern Ukraine. The new government in Kiev denounced Russia’s actions as “naked aggression” and invasion, yet so far has refused to engage its military. Russian vehicles, arms and troops began appearing in eastern Ukraine, and on Saturday the Duma unanimously approved Putin’s request to authorize military intervention.Armed gangs – almost indisputably backed by Russia and sometimes admitted Russian soldiers – seized government buildings and airports in the Crimean peninsula, and pro-Russian demonstrations popped up across eastern Ukraine. The new government in Kiev denounced Russia’s actions as “naked aggression” and invasion, yet so far has refused to engage its military. Russian vehicles, arms and troops began appearing in eastern Ukraine, and on Saturday the Duma unanimously approved Putin’s request to authorize military intervention.
Russian troops, having surrounded Ukrainian bases, are urging peaceful surrender – and being politely rebuffed by the Ukrainians. Only one major Ukrainian commander has defected thus far, and he was heckled at his own press conference and promptly accused of treason in Kiev.Russian troops, having surrounded Ukrainian bases, are urging peaceful surrender – and being politely rebuffed by the Ukrainians. Only one major Ukrainian commander has defected thus far, and he was heckled at his own press conference and promptly accused of treason in Kiev.
The big question is, of course, what happens next, and it is a messy one.The big question is, of course, what happens next, and it is a messy one.
Despite CNN’s insistence, very few people involved (and Putin probably isn’t one of them) see this as a “cold war chess match”; ethnic divisions in Ukraine (like everywhere else) don’t boil down to something as basic as “pro-Russian in the east and pro-European in the west”: most of the country speaks both languages, plenty of ethnic Russians are pro-European, and important minorities, such as the Tatars, have a voice in this, too. The US and Europe are hardly powerless, but their options are limited. Here’s analysis from experts around the world:Despite CNN’s insistence, very few people involved (and Putin probably isn’t one of them) see this as a “cold war chess match”; ethnic divisions in Ukraine (like everywhere else) don’t boil down to something as basic as “pro-Russian in the east and pro-European in the west”: most of the country speaks both languages, plenty of ethnic Russians are pro-European, and important minorities, such as the Tatars, have a voice in this, too. The US and Europe are hardly powerless, but their options are limited. Here’s analysis from experts around the world:
Anne Applebaum at the Washington Post foresees a continued creep into Ukraine:Anne Applebaum at the Washington Post foresees a continued creep into Ukraine:
Unless Vladimir Putin suddenly becomes irrational – which of course can’t be excluded – he must know that a full-scale invasion is entirely unnecessary. After all, he possesses a whole arsenal of non-military tactics that could undermine the new Ukrainian government.Unless Vladimir Putin suddenly becomes irrational – which of course can’t be excluded – he must know that a full-scale invasion is entirely unnecessary. After all, he possesses a whole arsenal of non-military tactics that could undermine the new Ukrainian government.
A provokatsiya is technically a “provocation”. But it has a narrower meaning as well: a political event or action that the authorities, through their secret services, create to serve their own purposes. A staged crisis; the publication of outrageous documents, authentic or fake; a rapidly organized political movement of the far right or far left; an anonymous bomb explosion.A provokatsiya is technically a “provocation”. But it has a narrower meaning as well: a political event or action that the authorities, through their secret services, create to serve their own purposes. A staged crisis; the publication of outrageous documents, authentic or fake; a rapidly organized political movement of the far right or far left; an anonymous bomb explosion.
Crimea is vulnerable to manipulation. Russian agents successfully undermined the sovereignty of Georgia by offering Russian passports and other inducements to the residents of South Ossetia, a Georgian province, and then carrying out a de facto invasion. … Crimea could become a part of Ukraine that is not really ruled by Ukraine.Crimea is vulnerable to manipulation. Russian agents successfully undermined the sovereignty of Georgia by offering Russian passports and other inducements to the residents of South Ossetia, a Georgian province, and then carrying out a de facto invasion. … Crimea could become a part of Ukraine that is not really ruled by Ukraine.
There are longer-term tactics available as well. Russia’s corrupt business elite, together with Ukraine’s corrupt business elite, will certainly try to draw Ukraine’s new leaders into the same web that caught Yanu­kovych as well as his “pro-Western” predecessors. There is a lot of money available to Ukrainian politicians of all sorts who don’t mind being on the Russian payroll, and it’s a lot more money than anybody will get from a State Department “democracy” grant.There are longer-term tactics available as well. Russia’s corrupt business elite, together with Ukraine’s corrupt business elite, will certainly try to draw Ukraine’s new leaders into the same web that caught Yanu­kovych as well as his “pro-Western” predecessors. There is a lot of money available to Ukrainian politicians of all sorts who don’t mind being on the Russian payroll, and it’s a lot more money than anybody will get from a State Department “democracy” grant.
Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Centre, for the Guardian, writes that Putin’s endgame likely involves controlling the story and rebalancing Russia’s role in the world:Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Centre, for the Guardian, writes that Putin’s endgame likely involves controlling the story and rebalancing Russia’s role in the world:
Over the last 10 days, Moscow has been unpleasantly surprised several times … The new official Ukrainian narrative, it was feared in Moscow, would change from the post-Soviet “Ukraine is not Russia” to something like “Ukraine in opposition to Russia”.Over the last 10 days, Moscow has been unpleasantly surprised several times … The new official Ukrainian narrative, it was feared in Moscow, would change from the post-Soviet “Ukraine is not Russia” to something like “Ukraine in opposition to Russia”.
Moscow now has two options: a confederacy between Crimea and Ukraine and Crimea’s full integration into the Russian Federation (a relevant law is being adjusted to allow this).Moscow now has two options: a confederacy between Crimea and Ukraine and Crimea’s full integration into the Russian Federation (a relevant law is being adjusted to allow this).
Even if there is no war, the Crimea crisis is likely to alter fundamentally relations between Russia and the west and lead to changes in the global power balance, with Russia now in open competition with the United States and the European Union.Even if there is no war, the Crimea crisis is likely to alter fundamentally relations between Russia and the west and lead to changes in the global power balance, with Russia now in open competition with the United States and the European Union.
Oxana Shevel explains the importance of Tatars at the Washington Post:Oxana Shevel explains the importance of Tatars at the Washington Post:
The Tatars – a Muslim group that was deported en masse from Crimea by Stalin in 1944 and that for decades has waged a peaceful struggle for the right to return – have been coming back in droves since 1989. According to the latest Ukrainian census, Crimean Tatars account for 12.1% of the Crimean population of 2,033,700. They represent a highly mobilized and unified constituency that has consistently been pro-Ukrainian and opposed to pro-Russian separatism on the peninsula.The Tatars – a Muslim group that was deported en masse from Crimea by Stalin in 1944 and that for decades has waged a peaceful struggle for the right to return – have been coming back in droves since 1989. According to the latest Ukrainian census, Crimean Tatars account for 12.1% of the Crimean population of 2,033,700. They represent a highly mobilized and unified constituency that has consistently been pro-Ukrainian and opposed to pro-Russian separatism on the peninsula.
Whatever the Tatar grievances against the Ukrainian state may be, when faced with the choice of being under either Russian or Ukrainian control, the Crimean Tatar leadership has consistently and unequivocally chosen Ukraine.Whatever the Tatar grievances against the Ukrainian state may be, when faced with the choice of being under either Russian or Ukrainian control, the Crimean Tatar leadership has consistently and unequivocally chosen Ukraine.
As far as what western Europe and the US can do, Ulrich Speck, another Carnegie scholar, posted his thoughts on Facebook on the EU’s “carrots and sticks”:As far as what western Europe and the US can do, Ulrich Speck, another Carnegie scholar, posted his thoughts on Facebook on the EU’s “carrots and sticks”:
I think Berlin has a strategy which is trying to bring Putin back into the camp of reasonable leaders of states. By taking a much softer approach than other western leaders, Steinmeier and Merkel are trying to build bridges which allow Putin to step back from further aggression. But it can only work when it is coordinated. Carrots can only work as a diplomatic tool if there are also sticks: Putin must understand what the price is for invading Ukraine, and he must understand that the west is united and very serious. If Berlin only holds carrots, someone else needs to carry the stick. I think Berlin has a strategy which is trying to bring Putin back into the camp of reasonable leaders of states. By taking a much softer approach than other western leaders, Steinmeier and Merkel are trying to build bridges which allow Putin to step back from further aggression. But it can only work when it is coordinated. Carrots can only work as a diplomatic tool if there are also sticks: Putin must understand what the price is for invading Ukraine, and he must understand that the west is united and very serious. If Berlin only holds carrots, someone else needs to carry the stick.
Currently I don’t see such a coordinated approach. Without a close coordination of US and EU positions, the Kremlin will perceive the west as weak and is unlikely to stop his actions in Ukraine.Currently I don’t see such a coordinated approach. Without a close coordination of US and EU positions, the Kremlin will perceive the west as weak and is unlikely to stop his actions in Ukraine.
Josh Rogin, at the Daily Beast, considers President Obama’s possible courses:Josh Rogin, at the Daily Beast, considers President Obama’s possible courses:
The administration is already doing what it can do now to show Putin that the US government is serious about its outrage over Russia’s actions in Ukraine. In addition to Kerry’s Sunday announcement that the US has suspended preparations for the June G8 meeting in Sochi and might seek to expel Russia from the G8 altogether, officials said the US has cancelled several planned bilateral events and is expected to cancel several more. Effectively, the US has decided to put the brakes on all aspects of bilateral relations until the crisis in Crimea is further resolved.The administration is already doing what it can do now to show Putin that the US government is serious about its outrage over Russia’s actions in Ukraine. In addition to Kerry’s Sunday announcement that the US has suspended preparations for the June G8 meeting in Sochi and might seek to expel Russia from the G8 altogether, officials said the US has cancelled several planned bilateral events and is expected to cancel several more. Effectively, the US has decided to put the brakes on all aspects of bilateral relations until the crisis in Crimea is further resolved.
Even Russian business leaders could be targets for asset freezes and visa bans. Administration officials added that Russian companies were fair game for sanctions if they can be shown to have been involved in either the invasion of Ukraine, or the effort to destabilizing the interim government that replaced ousted President Viktor Yanukovich, who fled to Russia last week.Even Russian business leaders could be targets for asset freezes and visa bans. Administration officials added that Russian companies were fair game for sanctions if they can be shown to have been involved in either the invasion of Ukraine, or the effort to destabilizing the interim government that replaced ousted President Viktor Yanukovich, who fled to Russia last week.
So how does this play out in Ukraine and Russia?So how does this play out in Ukraine and Russia?
Probably very, very poorly. Ukraine has a fragile new government, an economic crisis and endemic corruption; the stakes are high and self-evident. For Russia, everything from its economy, internal politics and its borders could be threatened – besides the obvious costs of what would be a bitter war.Probably very, very poorly. Ukraine has a fragile new government, an economic crisis and endemic corruption; the stakes are high and self-evident. For Russia, everything from its economy, internal politics and its borders could be threatened – besides the obvious costs of what would be a bitter war.
Mark Adomanis at Forbes takes a pessimistic outlook that invasion would devastate Russia’s economy (a tumbling ruble this morning has supported him so far):Mark Adomanis at Forbes takes a pessimistic outlook that invasion would devastate Russia’s economy (a tumbling ruble this morning has supported him so far):
The economic costs to Russia will be severe. The Moscow stock market is going to get absolutely clobbered when it opens tomorrow, and many foreign investors are going to bolt for the exits as quickly as they can. Depending on the severity of the situation in Ukraine, the Russian financial system could come screeching to a halt. It’s a given that many of these decisions impacting Russia’s economy will be made in haste and without a sober calculation of costs and befits, but that’s the way the world works: investors often overreact to political events and they will certainly overreact to a military invasion of a neighboring country.The economic costs to Russia will be severe. The Moscow stock market is going to get absolutely clobbered when it opens tomorrow, and many foreign investors are going to bolt for the exits as quickly as they can. Depending on the severity of the situation in Ukraine, the Russian financial system could come screeching to a halt. It’s a given that many of these decisions impacting Russia’s economy will be made in haste and without a sober calculation of costs and befits, but that’s the way the world works: investors often overreact to political events and they will certainly overreact to a military invasion of a neighboring country.
Russia’s economy has already been slowing down for the past several quarters, and the absolute last thing that it needs at the moment is a huge acceleration in capital flight. The ruble is also going to suffer ... .Russia’s economy has already been slowing down for the past several quarters, and the absolute last thing that it needs at the moment is a huge acceleration in capital flight. The ruble is also going to suffer ... .
Tikhon Dzyadko deputy editor of Dozhd, an independent TV station, has written a piece for the New Republic on how invasion causes more problems at home than anything:Tikhon Dzyadko deputy editor of Dozhd, an independent TV station, has written a piece for the New Republic on how invasion causes more problems at home than anything:
What does [the Kremlin] get in return? Problems on its own territory. Think of the reckless proclamations about the right of Crimea to self-determination … the Kremlin seems to have forgotten that Japan has a claim out for the Kuril Islands, and that a peace treaty has not yet to be signed with Tokyo. “Don’t chop the branch you’re sitting on” is a Russian proverb.What does [the Kremlin] get in return? Problems on its own territory. Think of the reckless proclamations about the right of Crimea to self-determination … the Kremlin seems to have forgotten that Japan has a claim out for the Kuril Islands, and that a peace treaty has not yet to be signed with Tokyo. “Don’t chop the branch you’re sitting on” is a Russian proverb.
A Russian invasion of Ukraine [would] paradoxically help Ukraine: questions about the legitimacy of the new government in Kiev will fall away; the IMF and the West will be tripping over themselves to help Ukraine financially; this, in turn, will prop up the government in Kiev, which is currently broke; and, finally, the Ukrainian people will be united in their fight against an occupier.A Russian invasion of Ukraine [would] paradoxically help Ukraine: questions about the legitimacy of the new government in Kiev will fall away; the IMF and the West will be tripping over themselves to help Ukraine financially; this, in turn, will prop up the government in Kiev, which is currently broke; and, finally, the Ukrainian people will be united in their fight against an occupier.
Russia, on the other hand, will be left with international isolation and yet another neighboring territory recognized by no one. In 2008, it was Abkhazia and South Ossetia; now, it is the Crimea. But in acquiring the Crimea, Russia will lose Ukraine, its biggest partner for transporting gas to Europe.Russia, on the other hand, will be left with international isolation and yet another neighboring territory recognized by no one. In 2008, it was Abkhazia and South Ossetia; now, it is the Crimea. But in acquiring the Crimea, Russia will lose Ukraine, its biggest partner for transporting gas to Europe.
And finally, Timothy Snyder at Foreign Policy sees problems if Russia starts playing border games – China could take advantage in Siberia:And finally, Timothy Snyder at Foreign Policy sees problems if Russia starts playing border games – China could take advantage in Siberia:
An attempt to seize Ukrainian territory would be a disaster in the short run, ruining Russian credibility around the world and likely starting a major war. In the long-term, such an action, even if it were to succeed, would set a rather troubling precedent – for Russia itself. If Russia excludes its own borders from the general international standard of inviolability, it might face some unwanted challenges. [In eastern Siberia] Russia holds major natural resources along its border with China, the world’s longest.An attempt to seize Ukrainian territory would be a disaster in the short run, ruining Russian credibility around the world and likely starting a major war. In the long-term, such an action, even if it were to succeed, would set a rather troubling precedent – for Russia itself. If Russia excludes its own borders from the general international standard of inviolability, it might face some unwanted challenges. [In eastern Siberia] Russia holds major natural resources along its border with China, the world’s longest.
Beijing … will likely note the developing Russian doctrine on the flexibility of Russia’s external borders. China also has a stake in eastern Siberia. It needs fresh water, hydrocarbons, mineral resources such as copper and zinc, and fertile soil for its farmers. Beijing actually invests more in eastern Siberia than does Moscow. No one knows the exact number of Chinese citizens in eastern Siberia … but it certainly dwarfs the number of Russians in Crimea.Beijing … will likely note the developing Russian doctrine on the flexibility of Russia’s external borders. China also has a stake in eastern Siberia. It needs fresh water, hydrocarbons, mineral resources such as copper and zinc, and fertile soil for its farmers. Beijing actually invests more in eastern Siberia than does Moscow. No one knows the exact number of Chinese citizens in eastern Siberia … but it certainly dwarfs the number of Russians in Crimea.