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| Ted Cruz prompts run to the right in Texas Republican primaries | Ted Cruz prompts run to the right in Texas Republican primaries |
| (6 months later) | |
| Only in Texas, perhaps – and maybe only this year – could there be a Republican primary race in which a man who’s been rated as the second-most conservative US senator is criticised for being too liberal. It’s an odd thing to see, but thanks, in part, to Senator Ted Cruz, it is also emblematic of the dynamic that has driven the campaigns in this year’s GOP primaries in Texas, which culminate in voting on Tuesday. | Only in Texas, perhaps – and maybe only this year – could there be a Republican primary race in which a man who’s been rated as the second-most conservative US senator is criticised for being too liberal. It’s an odd thing to see, but thanks, in part, to Senator Ted Cruz, it is also emblematic of the dynamic that has driven the campaigns in this year’s GOP primaries in Texas, which culminate in voting on Tuesday. |
| John Cornyn, the Senate minority whip, is seeking his party’s nomination on Tuesday to run for a third term. The National Journal named him 2012’s second-most conservative senator. He has received top marks from the anti-abortion group National Right to Life and the National Rifle Association. | John Cornyn, the Senate minority whip, is seeking his party’s nomination on Tuesday to run for a third term. The National Journal named him 2012’s second-most conservative senator. He has received top marks from the anti-abortion group National Right to Life and the National Rifle Association. |
| Unlike Cruz, though, Cornyn was not in favour of trying to defund Obamacare by provoking a government shutdown. And in the current climate, any hint of compromise or moderate behaviour is unpalatable to the Republican far right. So Cornyn, who’d been regarded as safe, faced a Tea Party looking to take him out. He will almost certainly hold on to his seat, but not without fending off a number of challengers – including, most prominently among them, the unlikely congressman Steve Stockman, who’s run an attention-getting but bizarre race in which he’s tried to beat Cornyn by getting to his right. | Unlike Cruz, though, Cornyn was not in favour of trying to defund Obamacare by provoking a government shutdown. And in the current climate, any hint of compromise or moderate behaviour is unpalatable to the Republican far right. So Cornyn, who’d been regarded as safe, faced a Tea Party looking to take him out. He will almost certainly hold on to his seat, but not without fending off a number of challengers – including, most prominently among them, the unlikely congressman Steve Stockman, who’s run an attention-getting but bizarre race in which he’s tried to beat Cornyn by getting to his right. |
| Last month, Cruz refused to endorse Cornyn for re-election. That was consistent with the anti-establishment, subversive stance that carried Cruz into the Senate and sent shockwaves through Texas politics. While Cruz’s tactics have made him a deeply divisive and controversial figure among members of his own party in Washington, the senator’s belligerent style has become a blueprint for Republican candidates in Texas. “It’s the Ted Cruz phenomenon – you have Cruz opening the gate to a challenge on the right to established conservative politicians such as David Dewhurst,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, associate political science professor at the University of Houston. | |
| Cruz beat the well-funded Dewhurst in a 2012 Senate campaign, galvanising Tea Party support by painting himself as a fire-breathing underdog scrapping against a moderate establishment figure. Since then Texas Republicans have – even more than usual – lurched to the right, and pledging to battle the Obama administration at every opportunity has become a leitmotif even for those running for a state office in which they might never have to contend with any national issues. (The candidates are free to do this because they don’t have to worry about winning the centre in a general election – in most cases, winning the Republican primary is a virtual guarantee of success in November.) Contenders spent heavily on advertisements and attacked each other with gusto. One engaged a private investigator who discovered that a rival’s now-defunct sports bar apparently hired an illegal immigrant in the 1980s. | Cruz beat the well-funded Dewhurst in a 2012 Senate campaign, galvanising Tea Party support by painting himself as a fire-breathing underdog scrapping against a moderate establishment figure. Since then Texas Republicans have – even more than usual – lurched to the right, and pledging to battle the Obama administration at every opportunity has become a leitmotif even for those running for a state office in which they might never have to contend with any national issues. (The candidates are free to do this because they don’t have to worry about winning the centre in a general election – in most cases, winning the Republican primary is a virtual guarantee of success in November.) Contenders spent heavily on advertisements and attacked each other with gusto. One engaged a private investigator who discovered that a rival’s now-defunct sports bar apparently hired an illegal immigrant in the 1980s. |
| Coupled with the Cruz effect is the mood of uncertainty and opportunity created by the imminent departure of an entrenched, dominant figure. After a state-record 14 years as governor, Rick Perry opted not to run for another term, and may mount a second bid for the presidency. | Coupled with the Cruz effect is the mood of uncertainty and opportunity created by the imminent departure of an entrenched, dominant figure. After a state-record 14 years as governor, Rick Perry opted not to run for another term, and may mount a second bid for the presidency. |
| Perry’s exit is prompting turnover as candidates jostle for jobs. Of the top six state political positions up for grabs, Dewhurst, the lieutenant governor, is the sole incumbent running to keep his job. | Perry’s exit is prompting turnover as candidates jostle for jobs. Of the top six state political positions up for grabs, Dewhurst, the lieutenant governor, is the sole incumbent running to keep his job. |
| But there is little diversity in the make-up of the candidates for the leading roles, who are overwhelmingly male and white in a “minority-majority” state. Despite constant talk that Texas’ changing demographics will make the state winnable for the Democrats in future years, there is no sense in this campaign that Republicans are adapting their messages. “For this cycle for sure the Republicans have made their bed. They don’t have any plans to appeal to crossover voters, to Latino voters,” said Rottinghaus. | But there is little diversity in the make-up of the candidates for the leading roles, who are overwhelmingly male and white in a “minority-majority” state. Despite constant talk that Texas’ changing demographics will make the state winnable for the Democrats in future years, there is no sense in this campaign that Republicans are adapting their messages. “For this cycle for sure the Republicans have made their bed. They don’t have any plans to appeal to crossover voters, to Latino voters,” said Rottinghaus. |
| Some of the most serious challenges facing Texas, including water infrastructure, access to healthcare, poverty, pollution and transportation, have attracted scant attention. Instead, much debate has centered around hot-button issues that are more about national politics than local, such as abortion, same-sex marriage and illegal immigration. | Some of the most serious challenges facing Texas, including water infrastructure, access to healthcare, poverty, pollution and transportation, have attracted scant attention. Instead, much debate has centered around hot-button issues that are more about national politics than local, such as abortion, same-sex marriage and illegal immigration. |
| Glenn Hegar, a state senator, is running for comptroller. Earlier this year, he released a 63-second video called “Freedom”. Set in a shooting range, it trumpets his endorsement by the NRA and shows him firing a handgun and an automatic rifle. It is not clear how unstinting support for the Second Amendment would be useful should he become the state’s chief financial officer. | |
| The four candidates for the second-most important state role, lieutenant governor, have all leaned far to the right and there is little to distinguish their attitudes on the highest-profile issues. They took much the same positions in an hour-long televised debate in January. | The four candidates for the second-most important state role, lieutenant governor, have all leaned far to the right and there is little to distinguish their attitudes on the highest-profile issues. They took much the same positions in an hour-long televised debate in January. |
| They were asked about Marlise Munoz, a brain-dead pregnant woman from Fort Worth who was kept on life support against the wishes of her family. All four felt that the judge erred when he ordered the hospital to stop treatment. “This baby could have been born,” said Dewhurst, even though the hospital conceded in court that the fetus was “not viable”. | They were asked about Marlise Munoz, a brain-dead pregnant woman from Fort Worth who was kept on life support against the wishes of her family. All four felt that the judge erred when he ordered the hospital to stop treatment. “This baby could have been born,” said Dewhurst, even though the hospital conceded in court that the fetus was “not viable”. |
| Each candidate said that abortion is not acceptable even in cases of rape and incest. “Rape and incest are not legitimate exceptions in my opinion,” said Jerry Patterson, who is Land Commissioner. “Either it is life or it’s not. And to say that we have an unborn child that is the result of a rape and somehow that’s less lifelike or inferior to a life that was through a natural, non-catastrophic event like that doesn’t make any sense.” | Each candidate said that abortion is not acceptable even in cases of rape and incest. “Rape and incest are not legitimate exceptions in my opinion,” said Jerry Patterson, who is Land Commissioner. “Either it is life or it’s not. And to say that we have an unborn child that is the result of a rape and somehow that’s less lifelike or inferior to a life that was through a natural, non-catastrophic event like that doesn’t make any sense.” |
| All support the teaching of creationism in public schools. “When it comes to creationism, not only should it be taught, it should be triumphed, heralded,” said Dan Patrick. He is the chairman of the state Senate Education Committee. As for gun control: “The one [public] venue that I believe that maybe handguns shouldn’t be there, although it kind of enhances the quality of the service, is a bar. That’s about it for me,” said Patterson. “A citizen who cannot carry a firearm is not much of a citizen, frankly he’s a serf.” | All support the teaching of creationism in public schools. “When it comes to creationism, not only should it be taught, it should be triumphed, heralded,” said Dan Patrick. He is the chairman of the state Senate Education Committee. As for gun control: “The one [public] venue that I believe that maybe handguns shouldn’t be there, although it kind of enhances the quality of the service, is a bar. That’s about it for me,” said Patterson. “A citizen who cannot carry a firearm is not much of a citizen, frankly he’s a serf.” |
| A University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll taken last month put Dewhurst ahead with 37% and Patrick second with 31%, suggesting there could be a two-man run-off in May. | A University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll taken last month put Dewhurst ahead with 37% and Patrick second with 31%, suggesting there could be a two-man run-off in May. |
| As for Cornyn, he’s expected to win with ease. Stockman, who’s received the most coverage of all of Cornyn’s challengers, has run a campaign that can only be described as strange – he’s raised little money, held few events, appeared to go AWOL for several weeks and has in general been so ineffectual that local Tea Party members disowned him. Still, his Twitter feed has been busy. | As for Cornyn, he’s expected to win with ease. Stockman, who’s received the most coverage of all of Cornyn’s challengers, has run a campaign that can only be described as strange – he’s raised little money, held few events, appeared to go AWOL for several weeks and has in general been so ineffectual that local Tea Party members disowned him. Still, his Twitter feed has been busy. |
| The favourite to replace Perry as governor, Greg Abbott, has so far run a careful campaign that has avoided such bombast, though Abbott, who is currently the state’s attorney general, drew criticism for campaigning with the musician Ted Nugent, whose long history of offensive comments includes calling President Obama a “subhuman mongrel” and people who use food stamps “well-fed ... cocksuckers”. While Nugent made a quarter-hearted apology, Abbott and other prominent Republicans have not made serious attempts to distance themselves from him. | The favourite to replace Perry as governor, Greg Abbott, has so far run a careful campaign that has avoided such bombast, though Abbott, who is currently the state’s attorney general, drew criticism for campaigning with the musician Ted Nugent, whose long history of offensive comments includes calling President Obama a “subhuman mongrel” and people who use food stamps “well-fed ... cocksuckers”. While Nugent made a quarter-hearted apology, Abbott and other prominent Republicans have not made serious attempts to distance themselves from him. |
| Abbott is expected to face Wendy Davis, who is set to be confirmed as the Democratic candidate for governor in that party’s primary on Tuesday. Should Davis inspire a strong performance from the Democrats in November, do not expect a move towards the centre ground that might reduce the rancor and calm the bluster. | Abbott is expected to face Wendy Davis, who is set to be confirmed as the Democratic candidate for governor in that party’s primary on Tuesday. Should Davis inspire a strong performance from the Democrats in November, do not expect a move towards the centre ground that might reduce the rancor and calm the bluster. |
| “If the Democrats become more competitive it’ll probably make polarisation worse,” said Rottinghaus. “As both parties play to their base it’s probably just going to get worse. It’s going to be a long-standing problem for the state.” | “If the Democrats become more competitive it’ll probably make polarisation worse,” said Rottinghaus. “As both parties play to their base it’s probably just going to get worse. It’s going to be a long-standing problem for the state.” |
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