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The US should stop squirming and put sanctions on Russia The US should stop squirming and put sanctions on Russia
(about 1 hour later)
Secretary of State John Kerry opened his latest press conference by assuring everyone of the "intense discussions" now underway to get Russia to "de-escalate" in Ukraine.Secretary of State John Kerry opened his latest press conference by assuring everyone of the "intense discussions" now underway to get Russia to "de-escalate" in Ukraine.
It wasn't hard to anticipate Russia's invasion of Ukraine. We knew it was possible given the invasion by Russian troops of Georgia in 2008. We knew Russia could rely on some Crimean residents to say they needed protection from Ukrainian nationalists now in power, when they were not, in fact, at risk. We knew that Sevastopol was important for Russia, serving as the country's principal warm weather port for its navy. We should have expected that Russia would do anything to defend it. We should have expected they would go beyond the minimum and occupy the whole of the Crimean peninsula. We should have anticipated, and prevented, Russia's invasion of Ukraine. That was a major failure of intelligence and diplomacy.It wasn't hard to anticipate Russia's invasion of Ukraine. We knew it was possible given the invasion by Russian troops of Georgia in 2008. We knew Russia could rely on some Crimean residents to say they needed protection from Ukrainian nationalists now in power, when they were not, in fact, at risk. We knew that Sevastopol was important for Russia, serving as the country's principal warm weather port for its navy. We should have expected that Russia would do anything to defend it. We should have expected they would go beyond the minimum and occupy the whole of the Crimean peninsula. We should have anticipated, and prevented, Russia's invasion of Ukraine. That was a major failure of intelligence and diplomacy.
While many now fault Europe and the US for failing to prevent the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the challenge now is how to resolve this and facilitate Russia's withdrawal. In short, we must challenge Russia to save Ukraine.While many now fault Europe and the US for failing to prevent the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the challenge now is how to resolve this and facilitate Russia's withdrawal. In short, we must challenge Russia to save Ukraine.
As father and son, scholar and soldier, we were both disgusted – but not surprised – by the passivity of President Obama's initial response. To be "deeply concerned" and to issue vague threats of "consequences" may work in certain polite diplomatic worlds, but they were hardly likely to dissuade a President Vladimir Putin who appears to live in a reality distant from moral suasion. (Even Angela Merkel says so.) As two brothers, a scholar and soldier, we were both disgusted – but not surprised – by the passivity of President Obama's initial response. To be "deeply concerned" and to issue vague threats of "consequences" may work in certain polite diplomatic worlds, but they were hardly likely to dissuade a President Vladimir Putin who appears to live in a reality distant from moral suasion. (Even Angela Merkel says so.)
It looked like a different Obama administration at this week's start. President Obama cut off military ties to Russia. His administration now threatens to ban visas and extending the Magnitsky Act itself, which allows the US to sanction individual Russians. On top of that, new and substantial economic aid has been promised to Ukraine by Kerry and the EU. That should get the attention of even the most nationalistic of Putin's empire-rebuilding supporters. Targeting the oligarchy worked in Serbia during the assault on Kosova, when Nato targeted Serbian elites' economic interests, bringing Milosevic to the table. This may bring Putin to the table now. The Obama administration finally recognizes the Putin regime for what it is, and what the west needs to do before it backs away from this round of imperialist aggression.It looked like a different Obama administration at this week's start. President Obama cut off military ties to Russia. His administration now threatens to ban visas and extending the Magnitsky Act itself, which allows the US to sanction individual Russians. On top of that, new and substantial economic aid has been promised to Ukraine by Kerry and the EU. That should get the attention of even the most nationalistic of Putin's empire-rebuilding supporters. Targeting the oligarchy worked in Serbia during the assault on Kosova, when Nato targeted Serbian elites' economic interests, bringing Milosevic to the table. This may bring Putin to the table now. The Obama administration finally recognizes the Putin regime for what it is, and what the west needs to do before it backs away from this round of imperialist aggression.
Putin's regime will recognize international legal regimes when convenient and violate them when it's not. Putin's regime will act in ways that shock liberal values and act as if it complies with those values when they violate them. David Remnick of the New Yorker says that Putin enjoys watching Europe and United States "squirm". This is Russian Great Power ideology, and if the takeover of Crimea is successful, this ideology will find its confirmation in the exercise of force. That extends even beyond Ukraine, as we now feel the effects of Russia's "success" in its invasion of Georgia.Putin's regime will recognize international legal regimes when convenient and violate them when it's not. Putin's regime will act in ways that shock liberal values and act as if it complies with those values when they violate them. David Remnick of the New Yorker says that Putin enjoys watching Europe and United States "squirm". This is Russian Great Power ideology, and if the takeover of Crimea is successful, this ideology will find its confirmation in the exercise of force. That extends even beyond Ukraine, as we now feel the effects of Russia's "success" in its invasion of Georgia.
So much for the non-violent democratic revolution embodied in Euromaidan. We now see that past transformations like it, the so-called "color revolutions", depended on Russian acquiescence, a disposition no longer apparent. ReSet was, in retrospect, ridiculous. The west failed to recognize Russian Great Power, increasingly anxious about its own legitimacy at home, projecting its power abroad to distract its own public from the pseudo-democracy that Putin proclaims with the phrase "sovereign democracy".So much for the non-violent democratic revolution embodied in Euromaidan. We now see that past transformations like it, the so-called "color revolutions", depended on Russian acquiescence, a disposition no longer apparent. ReSet was, in retrospect, ridiculous. The west failed to recognize Russian Great Power, increasingly anxious about its own legitimacy at home, projecting its power abroad to distract its own public from the pseudo-democracy that Putin proclaims with the phrase "sovereign democracy".
Euromaidan is Russia's greatest nightmare. Not because it risks moving Ukraine beyond a Eurasian Customs Union; the New Ukraine would have found compromise between Russia and Europe. It is a nightmare because it tells Russian citizens that pseudo-democracy is not all that the majority of Soviet descendents deserve. If Ukraine could develop a country based on dignity, human rights, and the rule of law, why not Russia?Euromaidan is Russia's greatest nightmare. Not because it risks moving Ukraine beyond a Eurasian Customs Union; the New Ukraine would have found compromise between Russia and Europe. It is a nightmare because it tells Russian citizens that pseudo-democracy is not all that the majority of Soviet descendents deserve. If Ukraine could develop a country based on dignity, human rights, and the rule of law, why not Russia?
Ukrainians knew this, and they pressed forward. The west, stuck in visions of clashing civilizations, did not recognize how populations learn, change, and become something different than how they were born. Putin understood this better than the west, and that is why he acts to suppress Ukraine by its dismemberment, and, should he find resistance, full-scale war.Ukrainians knew this, and they pressed forward. The west, stuck in visions of clashing civilizations, did not recognize how populations learn, change, and become something different than how they were born. Putin understood this better than the west, and that is why he acts to suppress Ukraine by its dismemberment, and, should he find resistance, full-scale war.
The west does not just need to rethink diplomacy, to devise ever-smarter sanctions, to figure how to exclude Russia from the global network the west dominates. The west needs to recognize the dynamics of social change itself, the promise of Ukraine, and the fragility of Russia itself.The west does not just need to rethink diplomacy, to devise ever-smarter sanctions, to figure how to exclude Russia from the global network the west dominates. The west needs to recognize the dynamics of social change itself, the promise of Ukraine, and the fragility of Russia itself.
We should not respond to Putin as if he were a kind of child with a tantrum who needs to be coddled. We must distinguish the Russian people from Putin and his regime, and recognize that the Russian people have the same potential as the Ukrainian people in their own self-emancipation.We should not respond to Putin as if he were a kind of child with a tantrum who needs to be coddled. We must distinguish the Russian people from Putin and his regime, and recognize that the Russian people have the same potential as the Ukrainian people in their own self-emancipation.
With that recognition, what does diplomacy in this crisis look like?With that recognition, what does diplomacy in this crisis look like?
It begins with the sanctions President Obama has identified. Secretary Kerry reiterated Wednesday that sanctions are still a "serious possibility". If Russia does not withdraw from Crimea, the US, along with its allies, must do more to ban visas for Russia's power elite and their families, and to extend the Magnitsky Act itself. Imagine the pressure on Putin if an extensive and systematic investigation of money laundering took place across Europe, with a focus on Russia's ruling class.It begins with the sanctions President Obama has identified. Secretary Kerry reiterated Wednesday that sanctions are still a "serious possibility". If Russia does not withdraw from Crimea, the US, along with its allies, must do more to ban visas for Russia's power elite and their families, and to extend the Magnitsky Act itself. Imagine the pressure on Putin if an extensive and systematic investigation of money laundering took place across Europe, with a focus on Russia's ruling class.
Certain kinds of military action are also appropriate, those that display Nato unity and resolve without upping the ante and guaranteeing war. Such measures could include establishing Nato AWACS orbits over eastern Poland to monitor Ukrainian airspace, and/or conducting a no-warning air defense exercise in Poland involving rapid deployments of non-Polish NATO air defense capability to Polish skies, including the best fighter in the U.S. inventory, the F-22. By thus upping the ante, military risks for Russia would be dramatically increased and thus enter their calculations.Certain kinds of military action are also appropriate, those that display Nato unity and resolve without upping the ante and guaranteeing war. Such measures could include establishing Nato AWACS orbits over eastern Poland to monitor Ukrainian airspace, and/or conducting a no-warning air defense exercise in Poland involving rapid deployments of non-Polish NATO air defense capability to Polish skies, including the best fighter in the U.S. inventory, the F-22. By thus upping the ante, military risks for Russia would be dramatically increased and thus enter their calculations.
Finally, and absolutely, all actors must work hard to distinguish between Putin's criminal regime and the Russian people. The demonstrations protesting this war in Russia on Sunday were not overwhelming, but they were incredibly brave, facing repression by Russia's own police. More and more Russians are standing up to Putin to say this ruins Russia.Finally, and absolutely, all actors must work hard to distinguish between Putin's criminal regime and the Russian people. The demonstrations protesting this war in Russia on Sunday were not overwhelming, but they were incredibly brave, facing repression by Russia's own police. More and more Russians are standing up to Putin to say this ruins Russia.
One might hope that those demonstrations will grow as the costs of this criminal aggression in Ukraine become more apparent to the Russian public. One might hope that Russia's oligarchs will recognize the risk Putin's reckless intervention puts to the entire Russian economy, and do something about it. And one might hope that western leaders will recognize the danger Putin poses, and push back this great threat to global peace.One might hope that those demonstrations will grow as the costs of this criminal aggression in Ukraine become more apparent to the Russian public. One might hope that Russia's oligarchs will recognize the risk Putin's reckless intervention puts to the entire Russian economy, and do something about it. And one might hope that western leaders will recognize the danger Putin poses, and push back this great threat to global peace.
Recognize Putin's criminal invasion of Ukraine and label it for what it is. If that had been the starting point 10 days ago, we might not be at such a loss for what to do today.Recognize Putin's criminal invasion of Ukraine and label it for what it is. If that had been the starting point 10 days ago, we might not be at such a loss for what to do today.