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| Lib Dems recover third place from Ukip in voters' poll | Lib Dems recover third place from Ukip in voters' poll |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| In the run-up to next week's budget, the Conservatives retain a commanding lead on the economic "blame game" and appear to be containing the Ukip insurgency, according to a Guardian/ICM poll. | In the run-up to next week's budget, the Conservatives retain a commanding lead on the economic "blame game" and appear to be containing the Ukip insurgency, according to a Guardian/ICM poll. |
| Westminster voting intentions have changed little over the last month, with Labour still ahead on 38% and the Conservatives creeping up one point to 35%, narrowing Ed Miliband's lead to just three points. But Ukip, which has had exceptional exposure in the run-up to May's European elections, not all of it flattering, has dropped back two points to 9%. | Westminster voting intentions have changed little over the last month, with Labour still ahead on 38% and the Conservatives creeping up one point to 35%, narrowing Ed Miliband's lead to just three points. But Ukip, which has had exceptional exposure in the run-up to May's European elections, not all of it flattering, has dropped back two points to 9%. |
| As Nick Clegg prepares to engage in a TV debate with Nigel Farage, the Lib Dems have clawed back two points from their 16-year low in February's Guardian/ICM poll. Clegg's party's rise to 12% has pushed Farage's party back into fourth place. | As Nick Clegg prepares to engage in a TV debate with Nigel Farage, the Lib Dems have clawed back two points from their 16-year low in February's Guardian/ICM poll. Clegg's party's rise to 12% has pushed Farage's party back into fourth place. |
| It is only the third time since George Osborne's "omnishambles" 2012 budget that the Tories have hit 35% or more in the monthly series of polls. David Cameron's relatively solid standing today comes after months of good economic news: unemployment dropped unexpectedly rapidly and inflation fell below the Bank of England's 2% target for the first time in four years. | It is only the third time since George Osborne's "omnishambles" 2012 budget that the Tories have hit 35% or more in the monthly series of polls. David Cameron's relatively solid standing today comes after months of good economic news: unemployment dropped unexpectedly rapidly and inflation fell below the Bank of England's 2% target for the first time in four years. |
| In these circumstances, voters appear to be in a forgiving mood about the preceding years of disappointing financial news and the continuing cuts. | In these circumstances, voters appear to be in a forgiving mood about the preceding years of disappointing financial news and the continuing cuts. |
| ICM asked who or what was "most to blame for Britain's recent economic difficulties and the ongoing cutbacks in government spending", and found that twice as many voters (32%) blamed "debts racked up by the last Labour government" as the "coalition's economic management" (16%). | ICM asked who or what was "most to blame for Britain's recent economic difficulties and the ongoing cutbacks in government spending", and found that twice as many voters (32%) blamed "debts racked up by the last Labour government" as the "coalition's economic management" (16%). |
| Labour has consistently lagged behind on this gauge of the blame game during the course of this parliament, and the gap between government and opposition on this score is now the widest it has been since 2010. Labour's 16-point deficit represents a substantial widening of the six-point gap found the last time a similarly worded question was put in February 2013. More people (20%) now blame the banks than the coalition, while the proportion of voters who identify the eurozone as the principal culprit (14%) is nearly as high as those who point the finger at the government. | Labour has consistently lagged behind on this gauge of the blame game during the course of this parliament, and the gap between government and opposition on this score is now the widest it has been since 2010. Labour's 16-point deficit represents a substantial widening of the six-point gap found the last time a similarly worded question was put in February 2013. More people (20%) now blame the banks than the coalition, while the proportion of voters who identify the eurozone as the principal culprit (14%) is nearly as high as those who point the finger at the government. |
| While the Financial Times has warned that Osborne faces a £20bn black hole in his accounts, the poll is a propitious political backdrop for a chancellor preparing to open his budget red box next Wednesday. | While the Financial Times has warned that Osborne faces a £20bn black hole in his accounts, the poll is a propitious political backdrop for a chancellor preparing to open his budget red box next Wednesday. |
| But the survey contains warnings that the most talked-about giveaways in prospect are out of line with the public's priorities. Coalition Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are scrambling to claim credit for increases to the personal allowance, and Clegg identified further increases in his spring conference speech last weekend. Yet the ICM survey finds that only 16% of voters regard this as their top priority. | But the survey contains warnings that the most talked-about giveaways in prospect are out of line with the public's priorities. Coalition Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are scrambling to claim credit for increases to the personal allowance, and Clegg identified further increases in his spring conference speech last weekend. Yet the ICM survey finds that only 16% of voters regard this as their top priority. |
| Even less popular is an alternative income tax cut being pushed by Conservative backbenchers and the Tory press: an increase to the £42,000 entry-point for the 40% tax bracket. Only 4% of voters picked this budget option off the menu. Even among Conservative voters, a mere 5% prioritised this option. | Even less popular is an alternative income tax cut being pushed by Conservative backbenchers and the Tory press: an increase to the £42,000 entry-point for the 40% tax bracket. Only 4% of voters picked this budget option off the menu. Even among Conservative voters, a mere 5% prioritised this option. |
| Far more popular than either of these initiatives would be to plough extra resources into the NHS – the priority for 31% of voters – or to cut the 20% VAT rate that the coalition imposed (19%). The Lib Dems say higher allowances help the low-paid, but almost as many voters – 14% – would prefer a pause in tax credit cuts, a more targeted help for the working poor. | Far more popular than either of these initiatives would be to plough extra resources into the NHS – the priority for 31% of voters – or to cut the 20% VAT rate that the coalition imposed (19%). The Lib Dems say higher allowances help the low-paid, but almost as many voters – 14% – would prefer a pause in tax credit cuts, a more targeted help for the working poor. |
| As Osborne weighs fiscal arithmetic which some economists claim will mean that austerity, originally meant to last for only one parliament, will now have to continue through until 2020, the poll contains definite signs of voters losing patience with retrenchment. | As Osborne weighs fiscal arithmetic which some economists claim will mean that austerity, originally meant to last for only one parliament, will now have to continue through until 2020, the poll contains definite signs of voters losing patience with retrenchment. |
| Whereas the chancellor has consistently insisted that reducing the deficit must take priority over early tax cuts, only 7% of respondents believe that if the Treasury finds itself with money to play with, the first thing to do should be repay government debt. That finding will embolden Tory backbenchers and activists, who insist that voters need to start seeing some sort of return in their pockets from all the years of austerity. | Whereas the chancellor has consistently insisted that reducing the deficit must take priority over early tax cuts, only 7% of respondents believe that if the Treasury finds itself with money to play with, the first thing to do should be repay government debt. That finding will embolden Tory backbenchers and activists, who insist that voters need to start seeing some sort of return in their pockets from all the years of austerity. |
| The vote share of assorted minor parties in today's poll is 7%, comprising 2% each for the Scottish and Welsh nationalists, and 3% for the Green party. | The vote share of assorted minor parties in today's poll is 7%, comprising 2% each for the Scottish and Welsh nationalists, and 3% for the Green party. |
| Analysis | |
| Surveys of voters are typically seen as popularity polls. Tuesday's Guardian/ICM survey digs into the mood of the times by probing political unpopularity. | |
| Since August, the race between Labour and the Conservatives has been pretty steady. Labour briefly bounced up after Ed Miliband's promise to cap energy bills at his party's conference, but other than that his lead has been remarkably consistent at three or four percentage points – the margin in six of the last eight surveys, including today's. | |
| Just over a year from a general election, the question is whether the public has simply made up its mind, or whether a great Ukip surge, a swing back to the Tories, or anything else could disrupt the equilibrium. | |
| The potential for voters to switch their loyalties is often driven by the depths of their dislikes. ICM asked voters to rate parties' likeability on a 1-7 scale, and found – unsurprisingly – that all were more disliked (indicated by an answer of 1-3) than liked (a rating of 5-7). Labour is currently the least disliked, but even its balance is negative: 40% dislike it, while 36% feel warmly towards it. | |
| For the Tories, the 49%-30% balance is much more negative. Things are worse still for the Lib Dems – disliked by 54%, liked by only 20% – and even more so for Ukip, where the "dislikes" enjoy a 58% to 19% edge. The 35% who dislike Ukip "a lot" (rating it 1) is far higher than for any other party, indicating limits to the appeal of Nigel Farage's anti-politically correct persona. | |
| Parties, and particularly parties of the right perhaps, comfort themselves that while they may be unloved, they can win support by being respected. So ICM also asked voters about whom they could imagine supporting. This approach also suggested that Labour is fishing in the biggest pond – only 37% say they "could never vote" for Labour, as against 45% for the Tories. | |
| In past years, the Lib Dems picked up support from all sides, but after seeing them govern in coalition, more people (56%) would automatically rule them out than the Tories. Again, however, it is the limits of Ukip's appeal that comes through most clearly of all: 59% say they could never lend Farage their support in a general election. | |
| Of course, May's European elections are another matter, but with 62% of even Tory voters saying they could never back Ukip at Westminster, it is hard to imagine it breaking the political mould. On the other hand, the Tories face grave difficulties in winning back support already lost to Ukip – 59% of Ukip voters say they could never vote for the Tories, against a mere 38% who say they would consider it. | |
| A considerably higher proportion of Lib Dems (47%) say they might be tempted into the Tory fold, and the smaller sliver of the Labour vote (25%) is more significant, both because the Labour pool of supporters is larger, and because of the way the electoral system works. | |
| All told, the poll suggests that the number of voters that the Tories might hope to snatch from Labour and the Lib Dems is roughly four times larger than the number of Ukip voters who might embrace David Cameron – which highlights the dangers for him in obsessing about his right flank at the expense of the middle ground. | |
| ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,003 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 7-11 March 2014. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules | ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,003 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 7-11 March 2014. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules |