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Miliband bores for Britain in Europe: three cheers! Miliband bores for Britain in Europe: three cheers!
(about 4 hours later)
Ed Miliband's new policy towards a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union is both boring and ambiguous enough to generate conflicting headlines in rival newspapers. Excellent.Ed Miliband's new policy towards a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union is both boring and ambiguous enough to generate conflicting headlines in rival newspapers. Excellent.
Boring is just the European policy this country needs in the runup to the 2015 general election. David Cameron's EU policy is perilously unboring, the equivalent of playing tennis on the central reservation of the M1.Boring is just the European policy this country needs in the runup to the 2015 general election. David Cameron's EU policy is perilously unboring, the equivalent of playing tennis on the central reservation of the M1.
Ukip's "policy" – attitude is a better word – is one of playing tennis in the fast lane. Whoops, here comes a German juggernaut. Splat!Ukip's "policy" – attitude is a better word – is one of playing tennis in the fast lane. Whoops, here comes a German juggernaut. Splat!
Trying to hide the European scapegoat in the long grass until the angry crowd has passed is only sensible for Labour, whose lead in the Guardian's ICM poll today is a modest 38% to 35% (Lib Dems 12%, Ukip 9%), pretty disastrous in my opinion for the main opposition party after four years of unpopular coalition, though many Labour stalwarts are confident of victory.Trying to hide the European scapegoat in the long grass until the angry crowd has passed is only sensible for Labour, whose lead in the Guardian's ICM poll today is a modest 38% to 35% (Lib Dems 12%, Ukip 9%), pretty disastrous in my opinion for the main opposition party after four years of unpopular coalition, though many Labour stalwarts are confident of victory.
ICM confirms that Labour still gets most blame for the bankers reckless recession – even more than it deserves – from voters who dislike George Osborne's austerity strategy while also embracing it because it mirrors their own struggle. That means Labour still has work to do to restore public confidence. I remain unconvinced that voters will warm to Ed Balls's proposals – some quite sensible – set out here yesterday. ICM confirms that Labour still gets most blame for the bankers' reckless recession – even more than it deserves – from voters who dislike George Osborne's austerity strategy while also embracing it because it mirrors their own struggle. That means Labour still has work to do to restore public confidence. I remain unconvinced that voters will warm to Ed Balls's proposals – some quite sensible – set out here yesterday.
The fact that Balls was among those shadow cabinet members advocating a different approach – matching the Tory referendum pledge – reinforces my hunch that Miliband has got it right this time, even with a modest fudge.The fact that Balls was among those shadow cabinet members advocating a different approach – matching the Tory referendum pledge – reinforces my hunch that Miliband has got it right this time, even with a modest fudge.
But it's the economy that matters. Douglas Alexander, the shadow foreign secretary, was right this morning to say what all sensible people do – and the polls confirm it – that voters are chiefly concerned about jobs, investment and pay rates, and are right to be so. "It's the economy, stupid," as Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign team told each other.But it's the economy that matters. Douglas Alexander, the shadow foreign secretary, was right this morning to say what all sensible people do – and the polls confirm it – that voters are chiefly concerned about jobs, investment and pay rates, and are right to be so. "It's the economy, stupid," as Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign team told each other.
Europe is not No 1 even among Ukip voters and – so much analysis confirms – even then it is a surrogate for concern about social exclusion and alienation from modern, metropolitan and multicultural Britain. "Immigration" is the shorthand word such voters use, though "Europe" sounds less crude.Europe is not No 1 even among Ukip voters and – so much analysis confirms – even then it is a surrogate for concern about social exclusion and alienation from modern, metropolitan and multicultural Britain. "Immigration" is the shorthand word such voters use, though "Europe" sounds less crude.
Voters are entitled to feel sore about the downside of immigration – the pressure on public services, jobs and houses. It's not just the poor who moan about it any more either. All those over-rich and over-educated foreigners grabbing the goodies in the posh bits of London are unsettling the strong sense of entitlement long enjoyed by the locals.Voters are entitled to feel sore about the downside of immigration – the pressure on public services, jobs and houses. It's not just the poor who moan about it any more either. All those over-rich and over-educated foreigners grabbing the goodies in the posh bits of London are unsettling the strong sense of entitlement long enjoyed by the locals.
You won't read much about it in London's paper, the Evening Standard, because it's owned these days by a Russian oligarch, but I meet refugees from Kensington in the suburbs all the time.You won't read much about it in London's paper, the Evening Standard, because it's owned these days by a Russian oligarch, but I meet refugees from Kensington in the suburbs all the time.
"Stop the continent, I want to get off" Euro-phobia ("sceptic" is too mild and rational a word) does not offer an analysis that addresses more than fragments of these complex issues. "Stop the continent, I want to get off" Europhobia ("scepticism" is too mild and rational a word) does not offer an analysis that addresses more than fragments of these complex issues.
As Boris Johnson famously admits, if we left tomorrow we would wake up next day with all the old familiar problems, plus a few. That approach comes dangerously close to making David Cameron Nigel Farage's understudy as the Alex Salmond of Brussels – a panacea politician using the chimera of "national sovereignty" as the magic wand that cures our ills.As Boris Johnson famously admits, if we left tomorrow we would wake up next day with all the old familiar problems, plus a few. That approach comes dangerously close to making David Cameron Nigel Farage's understudy as the Alex Salmond of Brussels – a panacea politician using the chimera of "national sovereignty" as the magic wand that cures our ills.
In his fudge (the Mirror makes too much of it today) Miliband promises an in-out referendum if Brussels proposes a further transfer of powers from nation states to the centre. In the present mood of economic gloom, financial insecurity and political paralysis – just look at the EU's response to the crisis in Ukraine – that's unlikely, as the Labour leader admits in today's FT article. In his fudge (the Mirror makes too much of it) Miliband promises an in-out referendum if Brussels proposes a further transfer of powers from nation states to the centre. In the present mood of economic gloom, financial insecurity and political paralysis – just look at the EU's response to the crisis in Ukraine – that's unlikely, as the Labour leader admits in today's FT article.
But Angela Merkel made it equally clear during her kind-auntie visit to London the other day that Cameron should not expect much dramatic movement in the direction of his one-man crusade to repatriate EU powers either.But Angela Merkel made it equally clear during her kind-auntie visit to London the other day that Cameron should not expect much dramatic movement in the direction of his one-man crusade to repatriate EU powers either.
That's Cameron's gamble. He promises a renegotiation and referendum, much as Harold Wilson successfully did in 1974-75 when – sorry about this, Dave – the PM was eight. It was a transparent manoeuvre then (I voted yes to Europe as a port in a storm without illusions) and is fraught with far more uncertainty now. Cameron lacks the goodwill Wilson enjoyed (he won by two to one) in both Europe and among voters.That's Cameron's gamble. He promises a renegotiation and referendum, much as Harold Wilson successfully did in 1974-75 when – sorry about this, Dave – the PM was eight. It was a transparent manoeuvre then (I voted yes to Europe as a port in a storm without illusions) and is fraught with far more uncertainty now. Cameron lacks the goodwill Wilson enjoyed (he won by two to one) in both Europe and among voters.
So Miliband's boring call for boring reforms in Europe makes more sense, not least because he has not put a gun to his own head and told chancellor Merkel: "Do what I want or I may have to shoot myself." So Miliband's boring call for boring reforms in Europe makes more sense, not least because he has not put a gun to his own head and told Chancellor Merkel: "Do what I want or I may have to shoot myself."
Despite declaring himself unequivocally pro-EU the Labour leader is already being accused of cowardice and stupidity by Tory MPs and Ukip MEPs who can barely spell either word.Despite declaring himself unequivocally pro-EU the Labour leader is already being accused of cowardice and stupidity by Tory MPs and Ukip MEPs who can barely spell either word.
In too many cases their careers have been built on pandering to prejudice, not challenging it.In too many cases their careers have been built on pandering to prejudice, not challenging it.
You don't see off a canny operator like Nigel ("Mine's a pint") Farage by pandering, but by dismantling him, pint by pint.You don't see off a canny operator like Nigel ("Mine's a pint") Farage by pandering, but by dismantling him, pint by pint.
Nick Clegg, with whose EU views and Miliband's are now aligned quite neatly, is bravely preparing to do an hour-long TV debate with Farage ahead of the 22 May European elections, which Labour or Ukip will win. He'd better be good.Nick Clegg, with whose EU views and Miliband's are now aligned quite neatly, is bravely preparing to do an hour-long TV debate with Farage ahead of the 22 May European elections, which Labour or Ukip will win. He'd better be good.
But George Soros, the banker who bet against sterling in 1990 and won a fortune, was surely right today when promoting The Tragedy of the EU, his new book on Europe's weakness. Britain currently has the best of both worlds, we're inside the EU trade area but (thanks to Gordon Brown) outside its highly-deflationary euro currency zone. Best not to get carried away and forget that. Miliband hasn't. But George Soros, the banker who bet against sterling in 1992 and won a fortune, was surely right today when promoting The Tragedy of the EU, his new book on Europe's weakness. Britain currently has the best of both worlds: we're inside the EU trade area but (thanks to Gordon Brown) outside its highly deflationary currency zone. Best not to get carried away and forget that. Miliband hasn't.