This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/13/tasmania-election-an-uneasy-sense-of-deja-vu-hangs-over-labor

The article has changed 2 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
Tasmania election: an uneasy sense of deja vu hangs over Labor Tasmania election: an uneasy sense of deja vu hangs over Labor
(6 months later)
Giddings heads to the polls on Saturday in a seemingly futile attempt to persuade Tasmanians to extend Labor’s 16-year tenure.Giddings heads to the polls on Saturday in a seemingly futile attempt to persuade Tasmanians to extend Labor’s 16-year tenure.
The omens aren’t favourable. ReachTEL polling gauges Labor’s vote at just 23%, well behind the Liberals on 47% and uncomfortably close to the Greens’ 18%.The omens aren’t favourable. ReachTEL polling gauges Labor’s vote at just 23%, well behind the Liberals on 47% and uncomfortably close to the Greens’ 18%.
Giddings, like Gillard, has had to carefully craft an administration without a clear majority after the 2010 election produced a dead heat between Liberals and Labor, on 10 seats each. The Greens, with the remaining five seats in the 25-seat parliament, struck a coalition deal with Labor, with Giddings becoming premier in 2011.Giddings, like Gillard, has had to carefully craft an administration without a clear majority after the 2010 election produced a dead heat between Liberals and Labor, on 10 seats each. The Greens, with the remaining five seats in the 25-seat parliament, struck a coalition deal with Labor, with Giddings becoming premier in 2011.
Labor has held government in Tasmania for 63 of the past 80 years but, less than a week from the election, it appears that an occupying force has already claimed its island fiefdom.Labor has held government in Tasmania for 63 of the past 80 years but, less than a week from the election, it appears that an occupying force has already claimed its island fiefdom.
Hobart is awash with pale blue and Liberal party candidates tower above the hilly state capital on giant billboards. Labor, with its traditional union backers rumoured to have kept their wallets firmly closed, look overpowered and beaten.Hobart is awash with pale blue and Liberal party candidates tower above the hilly state capital on giant billboards. Labor, with its traditional union backers rumoured to have kept their wallets firmly closed, look overpowered and beaten.
John Dowling, Labor’s campaign director, admits that the governing party has been “completely outspent”.John Dowling, Labor’s campaign director, admits that the governing party has been “completely outspent”.
“I would think the Liberals have spent close to $2m, which is a record amount for a Tasmanian election,” he says. “They’ve outspent us but I’m not sure they’ve out campaigned us on the ground. Our people seem to want to work a bit harder on door-knocking than theirs.”“I would think the Liberals have spent close to $2m, which is a record amount for a Tasmanian election,” he says. “They’ve outspent us but I’m not sure they’ve out campaigned us on the ground. Our people seem to want to work a bit harder on door-knocking than theirs.”
Labor knuckles may rap the doors but the message that meets the party is not edifying.Labor knuckles may rap the doors but the message that meets the party is not edifying.
Many Labor diehards aren’t happy with the Greens alliance – “people have said to me, ‘Lara, you’ve got to get rid of the Greens’,” Giddings admitted in January when she called the election and jettisoned the minor partner – and wavering voters appear to be convinced of the need for regime change to revive Tasmania’s fortunes.Many Labor diehards aren’t happy with the Greens alliance – “people have said to me, ‘Lara, you’ve got to get rid of the Greens’,” Giddings admitted in January when she called the election and jettisoned the minor partner – and wavering voters appear to be convinced of the need for regime change to revive Tasmania’s fortunes.
The state has an unemployment rate of 7.6%, well above the national average, and an average weekly wage that is lower than any other state or territory.The state has an unemployment rate of 7.6%, well above the national average, and an average weekly wage that is lower than any other state or territory.
As an island state dependent upon trade, the strong dollar has hurt Tasmania while negligible population growth, well below the Australian average, lends credence to the idea of an antiquated, stagnant isle in need of reinvigoration.As an island state dependent upon trade, the strong dollar has hurt Tasmania while negligible population growth, well below the Australian average, lends credence to the idea of an antiquated, stagnant isle in need of reinvigoration.
Labor and the Greens point to recent improvements in the economic situation and diversification into areas such as food, wine, culture and ICT, aided by an early NBN rollout.Labor and the Greens point to recent improvements in the economic situation and diversification into areas such as food, wine, culture and ICT, aided by an early NBN rollout.
But many Tasmanians just aren’t buying it. In Hobart, Danny, who works in a shop and drives a taxi to make ends meet, wants to see the back of Labor.But many Tasmanians just aren’t buying it. In Hobart, Danny, who works in a shop and drives a taxi to make ends meet, wants to see the back of Labor.
“There will be more money in the state because the Liberals will tighten belts a bit,” he says.“There will be more money in the state because the Liberals will tighten belts a bit,” he says.
“Labor say they are the party of the working person, but they’re not. Labor spend all the money and then it’s left to the Liberals to come in, put the thumbscrews on and get the money and jobs going again.”“Labor say they are the party of the working person, but they’re not. Labor spend all the money and then it’s left to the Liberals to come in, put the thumbscrews on and get the money and jobs going again.”
Richard Eccleston, professor in politics at UTAS, says: “Giddings has been a solid performer but there’s an overwhelming mood for change.Richard Eccleston, professor in politics at UTAS, says: “Giddings has been a solid performer but there’s an overwhelming mood for change.
“The challenge for Labor has been reconciling its progressive wing with traditional working-class voters. Labor is hopelessly wedged within its own party. The faux divorce with the Greens has been counterproductive. If anything it has mobilised the Greens’ base.”“The challenge for Labor has been reconciling its progressive wing with traditional working-class voters. Labor is hopelessly wedged within its own party. The faux divorce with the Greens has been counterproductive. If anything it has mobilised the Greens’ base.”
Giddings is in the progressive camp, pushing for marriage equality and questioning her party’s support for the Manus Island refugee detention centre. She may not have had to deal with some of the more personal travails endured by Gillard – apart from the occasional mention of her single status – but the premier has encountered an opposition leader in the populist mould of Tony Abbott.Giddings is in the progressive camp, pushing for marriage equality and questioning her party’s support for the Manus Island refugee detention centre. She may not have had to deal with some of the more personal travails endured by Gillard – apart from the occasional mention of her single status – but the premier has encountered an opposition leader in the populist mould of Tony Abbott.
Will Hodgman, likely to be Tasmania’s next premier, has a similar small target strategy to Abbott, keeping his public appearances to a minimum and focusing on a few key messages around debt, jobs and a tired Labor government.Will Hodgman, likely to be Tasmania’s next premier, has a similar small target strategy to Abbott, keeping his public appearances to a minimum and focusing on a few key messages around debt, jobs and a tired Labor government.
Like Giddings, he is considered to be on the left of his party although Labor claims he would run a “hard right, extremist government” due to the reputed influence that federal senator Eric Abetz has over the Liberal leader.Like Giddings, he is considered to be on the left of his party although Labor claims he would run a “hard right, extremist government” due to the reputed influence that federal senator Eric Abetz has over the Liberal leader.
Those who know Hodgman say he is likeable and witty. But media management – as with Abbott – is tight, perhaps not surprisingly given a campaign gaffe when Hodgman admitted the Coalition’s NBN policy could cost him the election.Those who know Hodgman say he is likeable and witty. But media management – as with Abbott – is tight, perhaps not surprisingly given a campaign gaffe when Hodgman admitted the Coalition’s NBN policy could cost him the election.
Hodgman has promised to tear up the forestry peace deal, despite it being strongly supported by Tasmanians weary of the decades-long battle over whether the state’s vast tracts of forest should be logged. But it seems not to matter.Hodgman has promised to tear up the forestry peace deal, despite it being strongly supported by Tasmanians weary of the decades-long battle over whether the state’s vast tracts of forest should be logged. But it seems not to matter.
“The Liberals have run a textbook low-risk strategy,” says Eccleston. “They’ve promoted the idea that a majority government will provide a stable environment for investors, and that has resonated.”“The Liberals have run a textbook low-risk strategy,” says Eccleston. “They’ve promoted the idea that a majority government will provide a stable environment for investors, and that has resonated.”
The Greens, unlike Labor, appear to have been unscathed by the power-sharing arrangement which saw it take control of portfolios such as corrections and Indigenous affairs. Under Tasmania’s unusual proportional representation system the party may gain a seat. Leader Nick McKim is even flirting with the idea of becoming opposition leader.The Greens, unlike Labor, appear to have been unscathed by the power-sharing arrangement which saw it take control of portfolios such as corrections and Indigenous affairs. Under Tasmania’s unusual proportional representation system the party may gain a seat. Leader Nick McKim is even flirting with the idea of becoming opposition leader.
“It certainly is a possibility if you go on the polling,” says McKim, sitting near a bullet hole in the wall at parliament house, caused by an unknown gunman during a debate over the Lake Pedder environmental campaign.“It certainly is a possibility if you go on the polling,” says McKim, sitting near a bullet hole in the wall at parliament house, caused by an unknown gunman during a debate over the Lake Pedder environmental campaign.
“We are facing a hard right Liberal government from the Tony Abbott and Campbell Newman playbook. Labor clearly need time to regroup; they are effectively in disarray. If the people elect us as the opposition, we won’t let them down.”“We are facing a hard right Liberal government from the Tony Abbott and Campbell Newman playbook. Labor clearly need time to regroup; they are effectively in disarray. If the people elect us as the opposition, we won’t let them down.”
McKim is bullish over the Greens’ prospects in the state in which the party was born.McKim is bullish over the Greens’ prospects in the state in which the party was born.
“Will [Hodgman] is a pretty nice guy but whether he has the spine to be premier, I’m not so sure,” he says. “Let’s be clear, we’re not here to keep the bastards honest, we are here to replace the bastards.” “Will [Hodgman] is a pretty nice guy but whether he has the spine to be premier, I’m not so sure,” he says. “Let’s be clear, we’re not here to keep the bastards honest, we are here to replace the bastards.”
McKim warns the reigniting of the forestry dispute will drag down an economy now more dependent upon tourism than logging, while also criticising the potential impact of the Liberals’ hardline law and order policy on the disadvantaged.McKim warns the reigniting of the forestry dispute will drag down an economy now more dependent upon tourism than logging, while also criticising the potential impact of the Liberals’ hardline law and order policy on the disadvantaged.
But he reserves particular scorn for Clive Palmer, calling the Palmer United party leader a “Queensland blow-in” who doesn’t understand Tasmania.But he reserves particular scorn for Clive Palmer, calling the Palmer United party leader a “Queensland blow-in” who doesn’t understand Tasmania.
Palmer has added characteristic colour to the campaign, which previously only strayed from the mundane when Hodgman decided to engage in a boxing match.Palmer has added characteristic colour to the campaign, which previously only strayed from the mundane when Hodgman decided to engage in a boxing match.
PUP’s Tasmanian leader, Kevin Morgan, has accused Giddings of paying “more attention to her hair than the needs of the Tasmanian people” while the occasionally trampolining Palmer compared himself to Gandhi during an ongoing row over the use of rival candidates’ images in election material.PUP’s Tasmanian leader, Kevin Morgan, has accused Giddings of paying “more attention to her hair than the needs of the Tasmanian people” while the occasionally trampolining Palmer compared himself to Gandhi during an ongoing row over the use of rival candidates’ images in election material.
But the vitriolic attacks by the Liberals on the PUP show the minor party should not be underestimated, with Palmer holding court in a Sandy Bay Chinese restaurant to predict his candidates would win five seats and the balance of power.But the vitriolic attacks by the Liberals on the PUP show the minor party should not be underestimated, with Palmer holding court in a Sandy Bay Chinese restaurant to predict his candidates would win five seats and the balance of power.
“We saw Tasmania was vulnerable, it was a weak spot, and we’ve hit them [Labor and Liberals] with overwhelming force,” Palmer said. “A lot of people want to try something new. At least half of those undecided voters are going to choose us.”“We saw Tasmania was vulnerable, it was a weak spot, and we’ve hit them [Labor and Liberals] with overwhelming force,” Palmer said. “A lot of people want to try something new. At least half of those undecided voters are going to choose us.”