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Crimea referendum: How, why and where next for soon-to-be divided Ukraine Crimea referendum: How, why and where next for the soon-to-be divided Ukraine
(about 5 hours later)
As voting started in the Crimean peninsula at polling booths draped in the same colours as the Russian flag, Ukraine faced the seemingly inevitable prospect of being declared a disunited nation by the end of the day.As voting started in the Crimean peninsula at polling booths draped in the same colours as the Russian flag, Ukraine faced the seemingly inevitable prospect of being declared a disunited nation by the end of the day.
Polls opened at 8am local time (6am GMT) and are set to close after 12 hours, but with Crimea made up of an ethnic Russian majority and many anti-Moscow supporters boycotting the vote, the announcement of preliminary results later today will be little more than a formality.Polls opened at 8am local time (6am GMT) and are set to close after 12 hours, but with Crimea made up of an ethnic Russian majority and many anti-Moscow supporters boycotting the vote, the announcement of preliminary results later today will be little more than a formality.
Ukraine’s acting defence minister today hit out at what he said was the continued build-up of Russian military personnel in Crimea, meaning the referendum is now taking place under the careful watch of around 22,000 occupying troops.Ukraine’s acting defence minister today hit out at what he said was the continued build-up of Russian military personnel in Crimea, meaning the referendum is now taking place under the careful watch of around 22,000 occupying troops.
The path that has led Ukraine to this point can be traced to the fact that the ousted President Viktor Yanukovych had two powerful bases of support: Russia, and the pro-Russian regions of the country’s east and south-east.The path that has led Ukraine to this point can be traced to the fact that the ousted President Viktor Yanukovych had two powerful bases of support: Russia, and the pro-Russian regions of the country’s east and south-east.
The eventually bloody protests which led to his deposition began when Yanukovych derailed a long-expected political and economic agreement with the EU in favour of closer ties with Russia.The eventually bloody protests which led to his deposition began when Yanukovych derailed a long-expected political and economic agreement with the EU in favour of closer ties with Russia.
A peace deal between the government and opposition was overseen by EU diplomats, but that arrangement was overtaken within days when protesters took control of the capital, Kiev, and police abandoned posts. Parliament voted to remove the president from power and soon appointed a replacement.A peace deal between the government and opposition was overseen by EU diplomats, but that arrangement was overtaken within days when protesters took control of the capital, Kiev, and police abandoned posts. Parliament voted to remove the president from power and soon appointed a replacement.
Russia declared the change a coup d’état, and heavily-armed troops apparently under command from Moscow began securing key positions in Crimea.Russia declared the change a coup d’état, and heavily-armed troops apparently under command from Moscow began securing key positions in Crimea.
The referendum was then announced, despite heavy criticism from the EU and US, with a ballot featuring two options: One, to grant Crimea greater autonomy within Ukraine. The other, which is widely expected to secure the bulk of support, envisions annexation by Russia.The referendum was then announced, despite heavy criticism from the EU and US, with a ballot featuring two options: One, to grant Crimea greater autonomy within Ukraine. The other, which is widely expected to secure the bulk of support, envisions annexation by Russia.
What little actual campaigning there's been in Crimea has taken place under the often menacing gaze of local militia forces, as well as the seemingly Russian military. In the face of overwhelming evidence, Russia denies it has deployed any troops.What little actual campaigning there's been in Crimea has taken place under the often menacing gaze of local militia forces, as well as the seemingly Russian military. In the face of overwhelming evidence, Russia denies it has deployed any troops.
The pro-annexation message has been crude but effective, and is aimed at instilling alarm over the new Ukrainian government's purported design to marginalize the country's ethnic Russian population.The pro-annexation message has been crude but effective, and is aimed at instilling alarm over the new Ukrainian government's purported design to marginalize the country's ethnic Russian population.
One billboard showed two maps of Crimea: one emblazoned in the tricolor of the Russian flag - the same colours as the Crimean one. The other showed it against a crimson background and stamped with a swastika.One billboard showed two maps of Crimea: one emblazoned in the tricolor of the Russian flag - the same colours as the Crimean one. The other showed it against a crimson background and stamped with a swastika.
Cossacks guard the regional parliament building in Simferopol during the Crimean referendum (AP) If those who vote in Crimea decide to break away from Ukraine and seek annexation by Russia, the final decision will be up to Moscow. It has said it won't comment until after the referendum.Cossacks guard the regional parliament building in Simferopol during the Crimean referendum (AP) If those who vote in Crimea decide to break away from Ukraine and seek annexation by Russia, the final decision will be up to Moscow. It has said it won't comment until after the referendum.
The Russian legislative process that would be required to annex Crimea may already be underway. But Crimea's Russia-backed leader Sergei Aksyonov has said the full annexation process could take a year.The Russian legislative process that would be required to annex Crimea may already be underway. But Crimea's Russia-backed leader Sergei Aksyonov has said the full annexation process could take a year.
Another factor will be what steps the EU and the US take with sanctions to punish Russia for what they regard as an illegal referendum.Another factor will be what steps the EU and the US take with sanctions to punish Russia for what they regard as an illegal referendum.
The US has already threatened to cut off Russian corporations from the Western financial system. Russia and the EU are big trading partners, and if they begin imposing sanctions on one another that could sharply affect international markets, which already have been rattled by the political chaos in Ukraine and Crimea.The US has already threatened to cut off Russian corporations from the Western financial system. Russia and the EU are big trading partners, and if they begin imposing sanctions on one another that could sharply affect international markets, which already have been rattled by the political chaos in Ukraine and Crimea.
Crimean authorities say if Ukrainian soldiers resolutely occupying their garrisons don't surrender after Sunday's vote, they will be considered “illegal”.Crimean authorities say if Ukrainian soldiers resolutely occupying their garrisons don't surrender after Sunday's vote, they will be considered “illegal”.
Leaders of the mainly Muslim Crimean Tatar minority, who make up more than one-tenth of the region's population, insist they want to remain part of Ukraine and worry about what fate awaits them in a country they have no desire to join.Leaders of the mainly Muslim Crimean Tatar minority, who make up more than one-tenth of the region's population, insist they want to remain part of Ukraine and worry about what fate awaits them in a country they have no desire to join.
Once Crimea's pro-Russian leadership seals some vague semblance of legitimacy through the referendum, attention will likely swing to eastern Ukraine, another heavily Russian-populated area in which the central government is struggling to stamp its authority.Once Crimea's pro-Russian leadership seals some vague semblance of legitimacy through the referendum, attention will likely swing to eastern Ukraine, another heavily Russian-populated area in which the central government is struggling to stamp its authority.
The government in Kiev reported last night that Russian forces had moved across the border to occupy a strategic location in the Kherson region.The government in Kiev reported last night that Russian forces had moved across the border to occupy a strategic location in the Kherson region.
A national presidential election set for 25 May is seen by the interim authorities as an opportunity to restore democratic processes in a country currently run by an interim post-revolutionary Cabinet. However, perceptions of an uncertain security situation could undermine confidence in what that vote produces.A national presidential election set for 25 May is seen by the interim authorities as an opportunity to restore democratic processes in a country currently run by an interim post-revolutionary Cabinet. However, perceptions of an uncertain security situation could undermine confidence in what that vote produces.
Additional reporting by APAdditional reporting by AP