WA Senate poll: Palmer's preference may help marijuana party into joint
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Version 0 of 1. It’s an outside chance, but Clive Palmer’s Palmer United party (PUP) could help elect a Help End Marijuana Prohibition party (Hemp) senator from Western Australia. The latest twist in the WA Senate saga came over the weekend when the full list of candidates for the 5 April election re-run was released (77 are standing) as well as the preference deals struck after days of furious backroom dealing. Most of those involved in the wrangling agree that, on current polling, it seems likely the Liberals will easily win two of the six spots, Labor another two and that the Greens senator Scott Ludlam will also be re-elected. That leaves the very-difficult-to-predict sixth Senate slot, decided by how candidates leap-frog each other as they are eliminated and their preferences distributed. It is likely to be fought out between the third Liberal candidate and the Palmer United party, with the Liberals more favoured to win. But should Hemp, which has done some canny preference dealings with both left- and right-wing micro-party candidates, poll ahead of the PUP after smaller party preferences have been allocated, then PUP’s preferences could put the lead Hemp candidate James Moylan into the Senate. “The most likely outcome is two Liberals, two Labor, one Green and a close race for the last position between the Liberals and Palmer,” said Glenn Druery, who specialises in helping micro-parties do preference deals, and who was dubbed the “preference whisperer” after the 2013 election which returned an assortment of minor party senators who will take their seats from July. “But if Hemp outpolls Palmer, then Palmer preferences could put Hemp over the line.” The Australian Sports party’s Wayne Dropulich, who was elected in the recount of last year’s result in which he secured 0.23% of the vote, appears unlikely to repeat his success. The result of the new election for six WA senators could potentially change the make-up of the crossbench votes upon which the Abbott government will rely to gain passage of key legislation, including the carbon and mining tax repeal. Initial counting after last September’s election gave the fifth and sixth Senate positions in WA to the PUP’s Zhenya Wang and Labor’s Louise Pratt, but after a recount the seats were awarded to Dropulich and Ludlam. The count also revealed the Australian Electoral Commission had lost 1,370 votes. The mistakes have forced the new election in the state. If that poll results in the more usual breakdown of three Liberals, two Labor and one Green, or two Liberals, two Labor, one Green and one PUP or conservative-leaning independent, it would mean the government could expect three votes in favour of most of its proposals and three against. That would make the balance of power in the new Senate a much more fluid proposition, possibly reduce the power of the PUP and possibly put the independent senator Nick Xenophon and the Democratic Labour party senator John Madigan back in the Senate “balance of power” mix. Xenophon and Madigan will vote for the carbon tax repeal bills, although they have said they won’t back the abolition of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and may also refuse to vote for the abolition of the independent Climate Change Authority. |