Escalating Ukraine tensions threaten aid to Syria's 9 million displaced people

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/mar/21/ukraine-tensions-threaten-aid-syria-displaced

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The deteriorating relationship between Russia and the west over Ukraine could have profound ramifications for the dire humanitarian situation in Syria, where the UN estimates 9.3 million people need help.

The European commissioner on humanitarian aid warned that the escalating diplomatic tensions between President Vladimir Putin and western leaders over the annexation of Crimea could complicate attempts to broker a peace deal in the Middle East country.

Aid agencies say 9 million Syrians are internally displaced or have fled abroad, and predict that three-quarters of the population – about 17 million – will require humanitarian assistance by the end of the year.

The commissioner, Kristalina Georgieva, said the beleaguered population of Syria could pay a high price for the diplomatic standoff between the EU, US and Russia, which has steadfastly supported the government of Bashar al-Assad since the conflict began three years ago.

Georgieva said: "The impact of the Ukranian crisis is twofold, it has driven attention away from very pressing humanitarian situations, overshadowing crises in other places. Also, we don't know what the impact may be in terms of cooperation to address the Syria crisis."

The humanitarian community was clinging to the hope that the Kremlin might not opt for a more aggressive stance towards the Syrian crisis, she said, and that they had not detected a different approach since the Ukranian crisis ignited last month.

"On a technical level, we have not seen any change – but when you are in a cold climate it is more difficult to get people to reach the right decision, and we need the international community to be very firmly united," Georgieva said. The EU commission is responsible for more than 40% of the EU's humanitarian aid – itself under budgetary pressure – which provides almost a third of global humanitarian aid.

Moscow, keen to assert its diplomatic and economic influence in the Middle East, has been a major provider of conventional weaponry to Syria while obstructing western attempts to penalise Assad with sanctions for the use of force against civilians.

Georgieva said: "The humanitarian community is worried about the diversion of attention and the shadow that may be thrown in terms of international relations and its capacity to handle complex situations, Syria being at the top of my mind because of the enormity of the crisis."

Russia has protected its ally Syria on the UN security council during the civil war, and has vetoed three resolutions condemning Syria's government and threatening it with possible sanctions. However, Russia backed last month's security council resolution on improving access to aid convoys in Syria.

"It is critical to get more help inside Syria, we have to make the UN security council resolution on access work; we have made some progress, this is critical to prevent an even more massive wave of refugees," Georgieva said.

The security council is expecting its first report from the secretary general on whether the Syrian government and the rebels have complied with the UN's resolution to improve access for aid workers. More certain is that the numbers of Syrians needing help will continue to rise, with families increasingly unable to afford to feed themselves, prompting further displacement. "Food is excruciatingly expensive. In one place we have reports of a 70-times increase in prices," Georgieva said.

There are signs that the Ukranian crisis is exerting a negative impact on the international community's response to humanitarian trouble spots. Diplomatic sources recently warned that the annexation of Crimea had hampered EU plans to send troops to the Central African Republic (CAR) because anxious eastern European countries were keen to retain their troops rather than send them to the African country, where experts describe a "slow-motion genocide" unfolding.

Georgieva was speaking at the launch of the "first responders" campaign, which is backed by the International Medical Corps and recognises the role of local people and organisations in coping with the initial, often most critical, phase of humanitarian disasters.

She said the aid community must learn to deal with more than one urgent situation at a time, pointing out that the crisis in the CAR and South Sudan were deepening alongside the crisis in Syria.