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| Tories close in on Labour's lead in polls | |
| (about 9 hours later) | |
| Ed Miliband has come under further pressure with two new polls suggesting the Labour lead over the Conservatives is narrowing. | |
| The head of Miliband's policy review, Jon Cruddas, added his voice to calls from a coalition of Labour thinktanks and senior party figures who have called for a strategic change in direction. | The head of Miliband's policy review, Jon Cruddas, added his voice to calls from a coalition of Labour thinktanks and senior party figures who have called for a strategic change in direction. |
| A Populus poll published on Monday showed Labour on 35% and the Tories on 34%; Comres also showed a narrowing, with Labour on 36% and the Tories on 31% echoing the findings of two weekend polls that suggested George Osborne had won favour with the contents of last week's budget. | A Populus poll published on Monday showed Labour on 35% and the Tories on 34%; Comres also showed a narrowing, with Labour on 36% and the Tories on 31% echoing the findings of two weekend polls that suggested George Osborne had won favour with the contents of last week's budget. |
| The poll slides gave added urgency to a letter published by the Guardian from thinktanks and intellectuals across the party calling on the Labour leader not to play it safe and rely on the government's unpopularity. | The poll slides gave added urgency to a letter published by the Guardian from thinktanks and intellectuals across the party calling on the Labour leader not to play it safe and rely on the government's unpopularity. |
| In gestation for a few weeks, the letter was designed to show there was broad support across Labour for a bold, decentralising agenda and to push Miliband into showing the courage to make this a central theme of the election manifesto. | In gestation for a few weeks, the letter was designed to show there was broad support across Labour for a bold, decentralising agenda and to push Miliband into showing the courage to make this a central theme of the election manifesto. |
| The message has been underlined in a New Statesman article by Cruddas and the shadow consumer affairs minister, Stella Creasy. "The old model of politics where progress depended upon centralising the capacity to act – whether in the market or by top down state intervention – no longer works," they claim. | The message has been underlined in a New Statesman article by Cruddas and the shadow consumer affairs minister, Stella Creasy. "The old model of politics where progress depended upon centralising the capacity to act – whether in the market or by top down state intervention – no longer works," they claim. |
| Miliband's office insists the Labour leader could have signed the Guardian letter as it is not divergent with his views and they accuse some of the signatories of collectively imagining a betrayal of principles by Miliband that does not exist. | Miliband's office insists the Labour leader could have signed the Guardian letter as it is not divergent with his views and they accuse some of the signatories of collectively imagining a betrayal of principles by Miliband that does not exist. |
| But there is a frustration that Miliband is equivocal about the agenda and has not followed through on a new direction since his Hugo Young lecture last month in which he outlined a reconfiguration of public services, designed to "tackle inequalities of power at source" by devolving power. | But there is a frustration that Miliband is equivocal about the agenda and has not followed through on a new direction since his Hugo Young lecture last month in which he outlined a reconfiguration of public services, designed to "tackle inequalities of power at source" by devolving power. |
| One signatory to the letter said: "The issue now being played out right across the party is big versus small. On one side there are people that say politics has changed, the electorate is fragmenting and there has to be a big offer if Labour is to win over the blue collar non-voters that will give Labour a majority. The other side say: provide a small offer, small targets for the Conservatives and a small target list of seats – in some ways they want to refight the 2005 election." | |
| Speaking at the weekend at a Progress event, Cruddas argued: "The real divide within Labour is no longer between left and right, but between those that centralise power and those that devolve it." | Speaking at the weekend at a Progress event, Cruddas argued: "The real divide within Labour is no longer between left and right, but between those that centralise power and those that devolve it." |
| A Labour government from 2015-20 has to be about redistributing power and not resources, he argues, if only because austerity makes cash handouts impossible and power becomes the new money. People will not accept being told what to do by those in power, suggests Cruddas, who has only a few months before the party holds a national policy forum in July to show he can make this decentralising agenda work. | A Labour government from 2015-20 has to be about redistributing power and not resources, he argues, if only because austerity makes cash handouts impossible and power becomes the new money. People will not accept being told what to do by those in power, suggests Cruddas, who has only a few months before the party holds a national policy forum in July to show he can make this decentralising agenda work. |
| He awaits three vital reports: by Lord Adonis on industrial and growth policy; the IPPR thinktank on the condition of Britain, including public service reform; and the party's local government task force led by seven Labour local government leaders, including Sir Richard Leese, the leader of Manchester city council. | He awaits three vital reports: by Lord Adonis on industrial and growth policy; the IPPR thinktank on the condition of Britain, including public service reform; and the party's local government task force led by seven Labour local government leaders, including Sir Richard Leese, the leader of Manchester city council. |
| There had been a worry among those close to Cruddas that his agenda would be stifled. They fear objections from the shadow Treasury team worried by loosening the purse strings to local councils or from statist social democrats who think decentralisation leaves voters cold and makes equality harder to achieve. | There had been a worry among those close to Cruddas that his agenda would be stifled. They fear objections from the shadow Treasury team worried by loosening the purse strings to local councils or from statist social democrats who think decentralisation leaves voters cold and makes equality harder to achieve. |
| Signatories to the letter respect the concerns that shadow chancellor Ed Balls might have about letting local government borrow at will. Even the agenda's strongest advocates admit giving service users more rights might just empower the articulate middle class. | Signatories to the letter respect the concerns that shadow chancellor Ed Balls might have about letting local government borrow at will. Even the agenda's strongest advocates admit giving service users more rights might just empower the articulate middle class. |
| But one signatory said: "Six months ago, all this might have met an ideological brick wall from the shadow Treasury team, but now there is constructive engagement. They want to know how this will work and what it will cost. They accept that, in 1997 to 2008, they tried tax credits and it was not enough". | But one signatory said: "Six months ago, all this might have met an ideological brick wall from the shadow Treasury team, but now there is constructive engagement. They want to know how this will work and what it will cost. They accept that, in 1997 to 2008, they tried tax credits and it was not enough". |
| In Miliband's office, there is a more prosaic concern – a feeling that voters do not know enough about the party's existing economic policies. One said: "Voters know about the 50p tax rate, the energy price freeze and that we might do something about the banks, but that is about it. We have announced a lot more, but people have not heard it." | In Miliband's office, there is a more prosaic concern – a feeling that voters do not know enough about the party's existing economic policies. One said: "Voters know about the 50p tax rate, the energy price freeze and that we might do something about the banks, but that is about it. We have announced a lot more, but people have not heard it." |
| In the meantime, faced by an increasingly hostile press, Labour will have to wait a week or so to see if the near elimination of its poll lead is a temporary post-budget sugar rush or a Tory breakthrough. | |
| Miliband is expecting to suffer a rebellion of about two dozen MPs when he asks Labour MPs on Wednesday to vote for the permanent welfare spending cap set out by the coalition in the budget and for the charter on budget responsibility that targets the national debt falling as a percentage of GDP by 2015-16. | Miliband is expecting to suffer a rebellion of about two dozen MPs when he asks Labour MPs on Wednesday to vote for the permanent welfare spending cap set out by the coalition in the budget and for the charter on budget responsibility that targets the national debt falling as a percentage of GDP by 2015-16. |
| Labour says it supports a welfare spending cap and has no parliamentary means of amending the government fiscal targets in the vote. | Labour says it supports a welfare spending cap and has no parliamentary means of amending the government fiscal targets in the vote. |
| * The headline and standfirst of this article was amended on 25.03.14 to reflect that Labour still leads in the polls and that Jon Cruddas is the current, not former, head of Miliband's policy review |