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| Bharatiya Janata party leader predicts landslide win in Indian elections | |
| (about 9 hours later) | |
| India's main opposition party, the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata party (BJP), will win a landslide victory in the coming election, allowing it to implement a wide-ranging programme of deep economic reforms, its leader has said. | |
| In an interview in Delhi the BJP president, Rajnath Singh, told the Guardian he believed that, with key pre-poll pacts now in place around the country, the party and its allies could win 300 seats of the 543 being contested when the final tally in the voting – spread over six weeks – is known in mid-May. | In an interview in Delhi the BJP president, Rajnath Singh, told the Guardian he believed that, with key pre-poll pacts now in place around the country, the party and its allies could win 300 seats of the 543 being contested when the final tally in the voting – spread over six weeks – is known in mid-May. |
| The election, repeatedly described by local analysts as historic, pits the rightwing BJP against the broadly centre-left Congress party, which has been in power for 10 years. | The election, repeatedly described by local analysts as historic, pits the rightwing BJP against the broadly centre-left Congress party, which has been in power for 10 years. |
| The BJP's prime ministerial candidate is the controversial Narendra Modi. The Congress campaign is led by Rahul Gandhi, the 43-year-old scion of the country's most famous political dynasty. | The BJP's prime ministerial candidate is the controversial Narendra Modi. The Congress campaign is led by Rahul Gandhi, the 43-year-old scion of the country's most famous political dynasty. |
| A series of polls have put Modi and the BJP ahead of the Congress party, though far short of Singh's forecast. Indian elections are notoriously hard to predict but analysts say the opposition may win up to 200 with the Congress reduced to half that number, the party's lowest total ever. | |
| Government ministers have dismissed the polls as misleading and partisan, though some privately admit the possibility of significant losses due to a failure "to really communicate all the many achievements of this administration". | Government ministers have dismissed the polls as misleading and partisan, though some privately admit the possibility of significant losses due to a failure "to really communicate all the many achievements of this administration". |
| Singh, the BJP president, said "a momentum of support [for the BJP] is increasing day by day due to the failure of the Congress-led … government on every front and the tremendous popularity of Narendra Modi". | |
| So far Modi appears to have the initiative in the campaign and has dominated media coverage. | So far Modi appears to have the initiative in the campaign and has dominated media coverage. |
| The 63-year-old came from humble origins to win power in the western state of Gujarat before being projected on to the national stage. | The 63-year-old came from humble origins to win power in the western state of Gujarat before being projected on to the national stage. |
| Critics see him as a divisive extremist who, when chief minister in Gujarat in 2002, allegedly allowed or encouraged mobs to attack Muslims in towns across the state after a lethal fire on a train full of Hindu pilgrims. | Critics see him as a divisive extremist who, when chief minister in Gujarat in 2002, allegedly allowed or encouraged mobs to attack Muslims in towns across the state after a lethal fire on a train full of Hindu pilgrims. |
| Others, including some of the most powerful industrialists in India, say Modi is an honest and decisive administrator who has introduced policies that have encouraged development in his state and could be reproduced elsewhere if he were prime minister. | Others, including some of the most powerful industrialists in India, say Modi is an honest and decisive administrator who has introduced policies that have encouraged development in his state and could be reproduced elsewhere if he were prime minister. |
| The BJP would target 10% year-on-year GDP growth in India, Singh said, and increase investment in infrastructure, manufacturing and skill development programmes to create tens of millions of jobs while encouraging a culture of entrepreneurship. | The BJP would target 10% year-on-year GDP growth in India, Singh said, and increase investment in infrastructure, manufacturing and skill development programmes to create tens of millions of jobs while encouraging a culture of entrepreneurship. |
| He also said a BJP government would work to gradually minimise subsidies for basics such as diesel and cooking gas. This may please international observers concerned about India's ballooning fiscal deficit but is sensitive domestically as it will mean higher prices for essentials for many poor people. | He also said a BJP government would work to gradually minimise subsidies for basics such as diesel and cooking gas. This may please international observers concerned about India's ballooning fiscal deficit but is sensitive domestically as it will mean higher prices for essentials for many poor people. |
| However, Singh, 62, said such reforms should not effect the "autonomy" of India's economy and "must facilitate the equitable distribution of wealth". He said the party's opposition to foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail would remain. | However, Singh, 62, said such reforms should not effect the "autonomy" of India's economy and "must facilitate the equitable distribution of wealth". He said the party's opposition to foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail would remain. |
| In his interview Singh, a veteran of Indian politics at national and provincial level, appeared keen to allay anxiety that the BJP might pursue a hardline sectarian agenda internally and an assertive foreign policy that could destabilise the region if it won power. | In his interview Singh, a veteran of Indian politics at national and provincial level, appeared keen to allay anxiety that the BJP might pursue a hardline sectarian agenda internally and an assertive foreign policy that could destabilise the region if it won power. |
| A BJP-led coalition was in power between 1998 and 2004 and earned a mixed reputation internationally. The administration was praised for a peace initiative towards Pakistan and for some economic reforms but was criticised for conducting nuclear tests and pursuing controversial changes to school text books to excise "offending portions". | A BJP-led coalition was in power between 1998 and 2004 and earned a mixed reputation internationally. The administration was praised for a peace initiative towards Pakistan and for some economic reforms but was criticised for conducting nuclear tests and pursuing controversial changes to school text books to excise "offending portions". |
| Currently western diplomats and regional specialists are worried about the possible impact of a BJP administration led by Modi might have on relations with Pakistan at a critical moment before the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. | Currently western diplomats and regional specialists are worried about the possible impact of a BJP administration led by Modi might have on relations with Pakistan at a critical moment before the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. |
| "The BJP has never had a confrontationist attitude about Pakistan … It is neighbouring country and we would like to have a very cordial relationship with them as with all countries of this world," Singh said. "The US is our natural friend … We believe in [the] ancient principle that entire world … is a global family." | "The BJP has never had a confrontationist attitude about Pakistan … It is neighbouring country and we would like to have a very cordial relationship with them as with all countries of this world," Singh said. "The US is our natural friend … We believe in [the] ancient principle that entire world … is a global family." |
| On many key domestic issues long important for the BJP – such as the introduction of a single civil code applicable to all communities – Singh said the party would seek consensus. But he said there needed to be a debate on the constitutional article granting special status to the disputed Himalayan former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir because it is "of no benefit to the people [there]". | On many key domestic issues long important for the BJP – such as the introduction of a single civil code applicable to all communities – Singh said the party would seek consensus. But he said there needed to be a debate on the constitutional article granting special status to the disputed Himalayan former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir because it is "of no benefit to the people [there]". |
| However, the BJP president refused to comment on the flashpoint issue of rebuilding a Hindu temple on the site of a demolished mosque at the northern town of Ayodhya as, he said, the matter was "sub judice". | However, the BJP president refused to comment on the flashpoint issue of rebuilding a Hindu temple on the site of a demolished mosque at the northern town of Ayodhya as, he said, the matter was "sub judice". |
| Many in India's large Muslim minority remain deeply concerned that a BJP government could damage still fragile relations between religious communities, particularly if it were led by Modi. | Many in India's large Muslim minority remain deeply concerned that a BJP government could damage still fragile relations between religious communities, particularly if it were led by Modi. |
| "Minorities also have a right to live in this country. They should also be given equal treatment," said Singh. | "Minorities also have a right to live in this country. They should also be given equal treatment," said Singh. |
| Many people overseas and inside India are worried by Modi's alleged role during the 2002 violence in Gujarat, in which more than 1,000 people, mainly Muslims, died. One of Modi's close associates was among dozens sent to prison for their role in the episode. | Many people overseas and inside India are worried by Modi's alleged role during the 2002 violence in Gujarat, in which more than 1,000 people, mainly Muslims, died. One of Modi's close associates was among dozens sent to prison for their role in the episode. |
| Singh said the charges against the BJP's prime-ministerial candidate were political propaganda and that legal inquiries had completely cleared Modi, who has expressed the "pain" he felt during the violence in 2002. | Singh said the charges against the BJP's prime-ministerial candidate were political propaganda and that legal inquiries had completely cleared Modi, who has expressed the "pain" he felt during the violence in 2002. |
| "That was a very unfortunate incident … But there is a wrong perception made by our political opponents to divert the attention of the common masses," said Singh. | "That was a very unfortunate incident … But there is a wrong perception made by our political opponents to divert the attention of the common masses," said Singh. |
| A 2005 ban preventing Modi from obtaining a visa to the US on the grounds that he is responsible for severe violations of religious freedom remains in force, though Washington recently ended a boycott of the politician. The UK ended its own boycott in 2012. | A 2005 ban preventing Modi from obtaining a visa to the US on the grounds that he is responsible for severe violations of religious freedom remains in force, though Washington recently ended a boycott of the politician. The UK ended its own boycott in 2012. |
| In recent months, Modi has played down religious imagery or language in the campaign and has concentrated on convincing voters that he is an effective administrator who can reinvigorate India's flagging economy and fulfil the increasingly frustrated aspirations of young people. | In recent months, Modi has played down religious imagery or language in the campaign and has concentrated on convincing voters that he is an effective administrator who can reinvigorate India's flagging economy and fulfil the increasingly frustrated aspirations of young people. |
| The Congress party has been hit by a series of corruption scandals, rising prices and flagging growth. | The Congress party has been hit by a series of corruption scandals, rising prices and flagging growth. |
| Singh dismissed the challenge from the newly formed Aam Admi party (AAP), which emerged from a largely spontaneous anti-corruption movement that swept India three years ago and won sufficient seats in a recent state election to briefly take power in Delhi. | Singh dismissed the challenge from the newly formed Aam Admi party (AAP), which emerged from a largely spontaneous anti-corruption movement that swept India three years ago and won sufficient seats in a recent state election to briefly take power in Delhi. |
| "We have never taken seriously the AAP. There is a crisis of political significance before the AAP," he said. | "We have never taken seriously the AAP. There is a crisis of political significance before the AAP," he said. |
| The focus on Modi has obscured the influence and importance of many other figures within the BJP, who are key decision-makers and likely to hold senior cabinet posts if the party can form a government after the polls. | The focus on Modi has obscured the influence and importance of many other figures within the BJP, who are key decision-makers and likely to hold senior cabinet posts if the party can form a government after the polls. |
| Singh, a former physics professor, is a veteran of Indian politics and former minister. Raised in a small village in Uttar Pradesh, the vast northern state which is the key battleground in the election, Singh became involved at an early age with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a movement committed to a conservative and religious world view, which has been banned three times by Indian authorities. | Singh, a former physics professor, is a veteran of Indian politics and former minister. Raised in a small village in Uttar Pradesh, the vast northern state which is the key battleground in the election, Singh became involved at an early age with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a movement committed to a conservative and religious world view, which has been banned three times by Indian authorities. |
| Modi too was an RSS organiser. The BJP and the movement, which has 40 million members, are separate organisations but are ideologically close. | Modi too was an RSS organiser. The BJP and the movement, which has 40 million members, are separate organisations but are ideologically close. |
| "It is very difficult to unpick such a convoluted relationship," said one veteran Delhi-based observer of the BJP. | "It is very difficult to unpick such a convoluted relationship," said one veteran Delhi-based observer of the BJP. |
| Singh, who is still considered close to the RSS, is contending from the safe and prestigious seat of Lucknow, the state capital of Uttar Pradesh. | Singh, who is still considered close to the RSS, is contending from the safe and prestigious seat of Lucknow, the state capital of Uttar Pradesh. |
| "After so long in politics, I am not worried. This is my life," he said. | "After so long in politics, I am not worried. This is my life," he said. |